Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: crazy_rabbit on March 07, 2013, 12:47:09 AM



Title: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: crazy_rabbit on March 07, 2013, 12:47:09 AM
Considering the lag of everything, are we watching what people are doing right now? Or what people did awhile ago in panic and Gox wouldn't let them cancel and now the system is just going through the backlog?


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on March 07, 2013, 12:48:00 AM
Goxlag is still at an insanely large amount. I think the crash is significantly influenced by the goxlag actually.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Jrock on March 07, 2013, 12:49:44 AM
I got an order through relatively quickly just a few seconds ago about a minute delay, but it went through.



Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Bit_Happy on March 07, 2013, 12:55:43 AM
Goxlag is still at an insanely large amount. I think the crash is significantly influenced by the goxlag actually.

IMO, ~$43 down to $35 (and lower?) is due to Gox being Goxed.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Cluster2k on March 07, 2013, 01:01:28 AM
I think we're watching a fight between two groups of traders: those putting orders in to buy at any price, and those who are looking to dump before it all goes lower again.  MtGox is choking on the number of orders placed.  The dollar or more spreads between bids and asks suggest people are trading blind.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: kingcrimson on March 07, 2013, 01:26:20 AM
The hype was there but the infrastructure wasn't. Let's hope this doesn't lead to an even greater crash when people realize mtgox is made of cardboard.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: The-Real-Link on March 07, 2013, 01:32:25 AM
The hype was there but the infrastructure wasn't. Let's hope this doesn't lead to an even greater crash when people realize mtgox is made of cardboard.

Agreed.  It'd be unfortunate if Gox's troubles outright stalled this rally, which I'd argue it has.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Elwar on March 07, 2013, 01:33:16 AM
I sold about 500,000 BTC, it has not gone through yet.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: bozak on March 07, 2013, 01:34:45 AM
I don't get it, the volume is really not all that high to make everything slow to a crawl.  Has anyone entered a limit order in the last few minutes?  Are we still looking at a delayed price?  I'm showing 39.30 right now, but I don't have any confidence that it is real time.  


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: shmadz on March 07, 2013, 01:36:23 AM
Canadian exchange (cavirtex) is lag free (obviously having miniscule volume by comparison) and has already rebounded to 39 at the time of this post...

could be a dead-cat bounce.. who knows?


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: mb300sd on March 07, 2013, 01:37:40 AM
Lets hope that this coinlab merger brings a better trading engine with it...


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: notme on March 07, 2013, 01:38:32 AM
The hype was there but the infrastructure wasn't. Let's hope this doesn't lead to an even greater crash when people realize mtgox is made of cardboard.

There are many more options this time around.  When gox fractures it will be time to buy hard.  It will be like blowing up a starfish pheonix.  There will of course be an incubation period, but when those eggs hatch, watch out.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on March 07, 2013, 01:41:28 AM
Canadian exchange (cavirtex) is lag free (obviously having miniscule volume by comparison) and has already rebounded to 39 at the time of this post...

could be a dead-cat bounce.. who knows?
could be? nah, the crash already happened, bitcoin will stay around the $38-$40 mark but greater resistance (finally)


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: anu on March 07, 2013, 01:59:49 AM
I sold about 500,000 BTC, it has not gone through yet.

I can feel with you. Just sold 22 Million. Didn't go through, either.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Cluster2k on March 07, 2013, 02:04:24 AM
I put a limit order in 30 mins ago that took 5 minutes to execute.  Not bad, but still about 4 mins 55 seconds too slow.

What would really concern me now is if we see the price bounce back quickly to $45+.  Not because of personal trading, but because it was possible for bitcoin's price to crash 30% within a matter of hours.  If we're touting bitcoin as a serious money alternative such huge swings are intolerable for most people.  Imagine going into a restaurant and seeing the bill increasing 30% when it comes to time to leave.  That's Weimar Republic-esque.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: justusranvier on March 07, 2013, 02:06:27 AM
If we're touting bitcoin as a serious money alternative such huge swings are intolerable for most people.
For merchants it makes BitPay look a lot more attractive.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: whitenight639 on March 07, 2013, 03:00:35 AM
I sold about 500,000 BTC, it has not gone through yet.

I can feel with you. Just sold 22 Million. Didn't go through, either.


It seems to me that when a buy or sell order is placed it matches you up with the appropriate amount of bitcoin from the other side, so how does it match up larger orders when there are not enough sellers selling at the same price / amount of Btc? it seems as if larger orders take longer to trade, i imagine the travelling salesman problem must come in to play and the trading engine has alot of computation to do.

 


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: mb300sd on March 07, 2013, 03:03:37 AM
I sold about 500,000 BTC, it has not gone through yet.

I can feel with you. Just sold 22 Million. Didn't go through, either.


It seems to me that when a buy or sell order is placed it matches you up with the appropriate amount of bitcoin from the other side, so how does it match up larger orders when there are not enough sellers selling at the same price / amount of Btc? it seems as if larger orders take longer to trade, i imagine the travelling salesman problem must come in to play and the trading engine has alot of computation to do.


Limit orders are simple to match..

SELECT * FROM asks WHERE price < limitprice ORDER BY price

if there aren't enough asks below the price, insert a bid order for the remainder


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Nemesis on March 07, 2013, 03:03:55 AM
Goxlag is still at an insanely large amount. I think the crash is significantly influenced by the goxlag actually.

IMO, ~$43 down to $35 (and lower?) is due to Gox being Goxed.

Guess who made money thro all of these swings? .......... Oh right..... Mt GOX

Is this lag intentional?

Unless they dont communicate with us and give us whats the bottleneck, i think it is.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Monster Tent on March 07, 2013, 03:07:21 AM
Goxlag is still at an insanely large amount. I think the crash is significantly influenced by the goxlag actually.

IMO, ~$43 down to $35 (and lower?) is due to Gox being Goxed.

Guess who made money thro all of these swings? .......... Oh right..... Mt GOX

Is this lag intentional?

Unless they dont communicate with us and give us whats the bottleneck, i think it is.


Frontrunning ftw


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: Monster Tent on March 07, 2013, 03:15:30 AM
In russia Gox lags you.

http://www.bitcoin.com.au/post/44757825713/the-goxlag (http://www.bitcoin.com.au/post/44757825713/the-goxlag)


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: zebedee on March 07, 2013, 08:28:31 AM
I wonder how many bots have been killed by

a) the elongated moves in a single direction  (can kill bid-offer bots as they only get done on one side)
b) the huge lags (can kill arbitrage bots)

I bet several bots have very -ve P&L today.  These things rarely make you money.


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: paraipan on March 07, 2013, 04:20:20 PM
Somehow related

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/11/12/nyse-trading-glitch-hits-216-securities-zaps-half-of-average-trading-volume/


Title: Re: Are we watching the crash, or watching the crash of 30 minutes ago.
Post by: BitcoinAshley on March 07, 2013, 05:21:21 PM
ITT: People complaining about MtGox being made of cardboard, but still using MtGox.

*MIND BLOWN*