Bitcoin Forum

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br9ws1J9Ei8

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Summary:

Bitcoin is rallying strongly and a new bubble seems in the making. Hard to predict how high Bitcoin will go in this next bubble. Could be $5k, but also $20k since it's been 2.5 years ago we had a bubble. Unlike last bubbles I won't sell when I get fear of heights, but only when technical indicators are strong that the trend has reversed and the bull market is over.




When do you plan to sell your bitcoin?  8)

I like your video. Good job  :)

Do you really think that a new bubble is in the making? It's highly likely that we've hit the top of the bubble that's currently going on. Don't be too optimistic.

Thanks so much Hunyadi!!! 8)

Living past from 2012 and most people been through the mt gox era due to manipulation of prices back then.

These prices I feel likely to stay, these prices are supposed to be where they were before everyone split their money into ETH what we saw.

Sure it just doubled, and hasn't gone parabolic yet so will likely go sideways or correct for a while soon.

But it's also likely we will go into another major bubble sooner or later.


Past performance is the - best - indicator of future performance.


This chart helps me a lot:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0

thanks for this great video mate nicely done and cool info inside hope you can do more like this
i'll followed and subscribe. thanks again mate.

There is a dose of realism in what you're saying but that it still a very optimistic approach. The charts you linked cite awfully specific timeframws and even do it with weighted averages on daily interwals., which is also awfully specific. I'm not saying that it's a lie but rather presented in the best possible way for it to look better. I'd argue that from the 2013 the long trend until this year was bearish instead, and not indicative of a long term price rise over time.

When do you consider the trend up, when down?


For me, when the 50 day moving avg crosses the 200 day, that means trend is up since end 2015 when it left $250:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSza1gSMAzm1g200za2gSMAzm2g50zv


Until we cross it again I consider this a new bull market where I will remain long.

Bitcoin is very tricky, we underestimate how quick it can go in a bull market, but also how low it can go after that.

That is why I like to study past bubbles to get an idea what's more likely to happen ahead.



In 2012 bitcoin had been going up slowly from $5 to $13, recovering from a serious bubble in 2011 going from $1 to $32 and a low of only $2 after that.

But then at the start of 2013 it moved in only 2 months from $13 to the ATH of $32. Once that broke, it took only 1 month to reach the new ATH of $255.


In 2015 we had a very similar slow uptrend where bitcoin has been going up from a low of $160 to $450, recovering from a serious bubble in 2013 where it went from $13 to $1150.

But now in only 1 month it went from $450 to $750.



If the same would happen today as in 2013 we would break the ATH of $1150 in only 1 more month and in only another month a new ATH of $9000.



A bubble grows exponentially:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#czsg2012-04-10zeg2013-04-10ztgSzm1g200zm2g50zv

I've been hearing people saying 500 was the top of the bubble, 550 was the top of the bubble, 600... and so on and so on, and then here we are, 750 and growing.
The thing is, no one knows, but it's bull as hell. It seems to me we will go 1000+ rather soon, and now you can count millions that are going to migrate from ETH to BTC since ETH is having big problems.

Anyone talking about cashing out does not remotely understand what bitcoin is about and is sadly stuck in the old world economics.

Bitcointard anyone?  ;)


Every asset, every investment, has good times, and bad times.

Now is a great time to be invested with a large piece of your portfolio in crypto.

But once it has gone up parabolic, tenfolding in just a couple of months and everybody is in euphoria about it, the risk/reward ratio in the short term is bad and a small exposure is waranted to avoid huge losses.



By buying more when it's low, and selling decently when it's relatively high, you are helping to reduce volatilty, and will be greatly rewarded for this.

You are also protecting some of your profits in case crypto ends up failing, which is still possible.


This has nothing to do with using bitcoin as money as much as possible.

Nor does it mean you are going to invest in fiat instead.

I think everybodies cash out point is different dependent on their financial status. I enjoyed the video though.

Thanks a lot mate.  :)

Especially for you another one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVUgzSHZJMA

Thanks so much Cybertron!  8)

Marc De Mesel, I liked your video and agree with you for the most part.


I was thinking of cashing out at $2K, but now I'm thinking that's a little too early. Do you really think the rally will take us as high as $5K-10K? Wouldn't that take a lot more capital than going from 32->$1150?

Also all my bitcoin is in Coinbase and their sell limit is $50K. I'm afraid I may miss liquidating all my coins at a relative top because of this sell limit... do you have any recommendations on where to cash out more than $50K? I'm in the USA

Thanks man, good question also.

As a stock or asset gains value, percentage gains indeed do go down.

But even when you take this into account, by using a logarithmic regression line, and extrapolate past growth this way, you do end up with an avg 'fair' value today of $2k as this chart shows:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0

If you believe this to be true, and knowing that most of the time a bubble overshoots fair value, it follows that the bubble will likely go to $5k-$10k.


Ie: eventhough percentage increases go down over time, because it's been 2.5 years since last bubble, we have a lot of catching up to do and may see again a tenfolding from the last ATH.

1 strong advise, do not keep your bitcoin on a exchange! And certainly not ALL on one!!!


It's very easy to store the coins yourself these days.

A phone app like airbitz is installed in 1 click, create an account with a long login/password and you are set.

Don't forget to write it also on a paper if you ever forget it or your phone is lost, you can always restore the wallet on another phone with the paper.

Nice video well i will give some likes and share also i will subscribe to your video lloks like you have many video released..

Thanks so much man!  8)

Yes, I invested first in bitcoin around $10 end 2012 and shared much info on my facebook. Been making public video's about bitcoin since middle 2013 when bitcoin was $100.


For example, still very relevant:

"How To Successfully Invest in Bitcoin":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5urOlr0fYG4



Check out also my party video when bitcoin hit $1000 ;)

"Bitcoin $1000 PARTAY!!! :) & Goldbugs wake up!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S497PGiRX3M

I have seen your this video and also other few but i like to suggest you to make one script or atleast list of things you will be talking in front of camera rather than thinking and talking instantly. Don't take in offensively this is just my suggestion.

Would you be down to party if bitcoin hits $5000? :)



I tried to arrange a party/meetup if BTC hit $10K.... but apparently I was being way too optimistic in 2014. Now that I have more BTC than I did when I made that thread, and now that my moon-goggles are off, I'm okay to bump it down to $5000-----still an amount that seems way too optimistic

Actually I would  8)

I would just call it a 'bitcoin bull party' or something, and fix a date the moment it breaks the all time high, and fix it only 1 month later so people can organise, but the bull market hasn't turned et into a painful bear market ;)

Where would you do that?

I think it would be the first of it's kind party, and you could actually make lots of money.


Also, this thread is much fun, the word 'hodl' comes from him :)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0

I was thinking Las Vegas or Ibiza ;)



By the way, do you think this rally is over? I know bitcoin is irrational but the crash from $788 -> $630 felt really off. There was no news behind it and we still have weeks before halving so I don't know if this is pure manipulation or if someone knows something I don't. I had hopes for this rally... thought it was finally time for the next mega rally... guess it's back to hodling

the price is not increase to 5k/10k now because there are not enough people thinking that bitcoin deserve such value

if the majority were really thinking that bitcoin has the potential for reaching those value, they would start buying now and make it happen overnight, instead no...there is still much fear out there

Party places indeed 8) but I wouldn't go due to this location. Too risky.

Bitcoiners are wealthy and paranoid. We want a place that has a safe reputation, especially if the world knows we will be there.

Zurich, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, San Francisco, such places I would go much quicker.

But do what you think is best as opinions are a dime a dozen.


edit: For party place Miami I would make an exception though  ;)

Nothing goes up in a straight line. Even bitcoin not  ;)

A correction was overdue after doubling. Just zoom in previous bubbles to see how it went up, temporary pull backs of 20%-30% are part of it.


For example, the bull market from $10 to $255 begin 2013:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-04-10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I count 5 pullbacks:

Timestamp     Open     High     Low
2013-01-24    17.5      19.2      16
Dropping 17%

2013-02-14    25        27.5      22.42
Dropping 19%

2013-03-06    40.66    49.17    40.66
2013-03-07    42.31    46        33
Dropping 33%

2013-03-12    48.15    48.25    36
Dropping 26%

2013-03-21         65.13    76.91    64.61
2013-03-22    70.87    74.47    65
2013-03-23    68.81    72        50.09
Dropping 35%


Current pullback:
2016-06-18    745       778.85        723.02
2016-06-22    665.36   677.63   588.03
Dropping 25%


It's only when you get a pullback of more than 40%-50% you need to research whether it is likely that the bull market is over and if so, sell on a rebound. However, as long as no new all time high is reached at least double/triple the previous one($3k), it will still not be likely even if such strong pullback would occur.

Nothing is certain, we could be wrong and this may be the start of the end of bitcoin but the odds are low, and investing is just that, weigh the odds and bet accordingly.

I share your vision. I suppose that this adjustment will serve as a breath of fresh air for altcoins.