Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: chiropteran on March 12, 2013, 01:43:59 AM



Title: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: chiropteran on March 12, 2013, 01:43:59 AM
I suspect the fork issues going on now will scare out a lot of people, and value will plummet early in the AM tomorrow.  But I also suspect that a lot of long term investors who experienced the crash of '11 and kick themselves every day for failing to buy in at $3 will jump at the chance to get some bitcoins for under market value.  My guess is this will just be a very brief and temporary blip in the value of bitcoins, which quickly recovers thanks to lessons learned in the previous major crash.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Global BTC on March 12, 2013, 01:47:09 AM
A thing to consider is that the temporary shutdown of BTC deposits to Mt.Gox will decrease the supply as long as it lasts, and possibly for some time after it since not everyone who wants to sell their coins will be hammering Mt.Gox until it's open again, they might just try another day. However, this will also create a buildup of miners who wants to sell their coins but can't, and when that buildup is released, supply will be higher than normal.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: bitlybit on March 12, 2013, 01:47:59 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Piper67 on March 12, 2013, 01:50:01 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

You know, saying this on many threads doesn't make it true... No, the protocol didn't fail. In fact, if everyone had upgraded to 0.8, we wouldn't even be talking. I realised you want cheap coins, but this is silly.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: bitlybit on March 12, 2013, 01:52:49 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

You know, saying this on many threads doesn't make it true... No, the protocol didn't fail. In fact, if everyone had upgraded to 0.8, we wouldn't even be talking. I realised you want cheap coins, but this is silly.
lol the protocol shouldn't care if people are mining on different versions, that's a bad design

if there's another major problem in the future with the 'protocol' that needs everyone to upgrade then the protocol is badly designed

we just need Bitcoin 2 and startover to truly fix it (fix the major problems in the protocol design first ofcourse), and then Bitcoin 3 if that fails etc (naturally)


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Herodes on March 12, 2013, 02:18:44 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

You know, saying this on many threads doesn't make it true... No, the protocol didn't fail. In fact, if everyone had upgraded to 0.8, we wouldn't even be talking. I realised you want cheap coins, but this is silly.
lol the protocol shouldn't care if people are mining on different versions, that's a bad design

It was a bug, and it's being worked on, even NASA with their rigorous coding system (two coders overlooking every code line, and 3 checkers checking their lines), and every change in code has to be commented extensively, makes fatal mistakes.

http://royal.pingdom.com/2009/03/19/10-historical-software-bugs-with-extreme-consequences/


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Bit_Happy on March 12, 2013, 02:27:06 AM
Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Piper67 on March 12, 2013, 02:29:07 AM
Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.

The chains should merge in the next hour or so. Anyone who understands what's going on will be buying.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: NegativeNancy on March 12, 2013, 02:30:38 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?
Sell your holdings and leave.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Nemesis on March 12, 2013, 02:34:19 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?
Sell your holdings and leave.

Look like many have already done that.

You would rather get out of holding position and get back in when it settle.

It wont be for a few days i tell you

This fork + overvalued price = crash


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: chiropteran on March 12, 2013, 02:35:17 AM
Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.

Maybe, maybe not.  Personally I am betting that the irrational reactive people will push the value down further, so I am not buying back in yet... I'll wait for the low to hit, and then invest.  Why buy 200 coins @ $39 now if I can buy 400 coins @ $20 in a few hours?


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: meebs on March 12, 2013, 02:44:55 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

the protocol is working PERFECTLY.

it is the software that a certain OLDER version that did not work perfectly.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: ehoffman on March 12, 2013, 02:47:59 AM
Not just the client, but all the servers that rely on the old DB format are down too.  Sent BTC to vircurex, and it does not see my transaction (stuck at 0 of 6 confirms).  My client have long confirmed the transaction.  So, it's affecting the whole ecosystem, not just 0.7 client.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: randrace on March 12, 2013, 03:08:11 AM
Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.

Maybe, maybe not.  Personally I am betting that the irrational reactive people will push the value down further, so I am not buying back in yet... I'll wait for the low to hit, and then invest.  Why buy 200 coins @ $39 now if I can buy 400 coins @ $20 in a few hours?

I hope you are right, but that seems like a huge drop. I don't feel the drop will be that dramatic.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: qwk on March 12, 2013, 06:04:22 AM
we just need Bitcoin 2 and startover to truly fix it (fix the major problems in the protocol design first ofcourse), and then Bitcoin 3 if that fails etc (naturally)

You mean like, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 an so on? Giving them integer numbers doesn't really change anything, you know?  ::)

Having said that, bitcoin is still beta software, tiny quirks like the one at hand are to be expected.

Now accept your fate, you won't be getting a chance to be an early miner in a "bitcoin2" network  ;D


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: romerun on March 12, 2013, 06:11:37 AM
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1258


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Melbustus on March 12, 2013, 08:43:54 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

Wow, way to misinterpret.

Tonight was a success. Both in terms of the flexibility of the system, and the community's reaction to a bug. This just gives me more long-term confidence that bitcoin can withstand adversity, be it from a software issue (these *will* happen!) or a malicious attack. Tonight's issue was handled and resolved with remarkable speed, consensus, and effectiveness.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Piper67 on March 12, 2013, 09:33:12 AM
you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

Wow, way to misinterpret.

Tonight was a success. Both in terms of the flexibility of the system, and the community's reaction to a bug. This just gives me more long-term confidence that bitcoin can withstand adversity, be it from a software issue (these *will* happen!) or a malicious attack. Tonight's issue was handled and resolved with remarkable speed, consensus, and effectiveness.

Agreed. Regardless of how the market reacts, this was impressive. Just about the worst case scenario happened, and it got resolved efficiently, in a matter of hours. You'd never be able to do that with an equivalent crisis in gold, stocks or any fiat currency. It was an amazing display of cool-headedness.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: chiropteran on March 12, 2013, 12:17:17 PM
Whelp, the coins didn't get very cheap!  Hope you guys bought some @ $39.  Best I did was pickup a few at $42.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: yokosan on March 12, 2013, 12:30:32 PM
It's not the bug that will cause a major drop. It's when some of the big name companies that decided to accept bitcoin and restored faith in the currencies future stop accepting BTC because they fear it's not safe enough.

If reddit, wordpress, mega, and namecheap gave up on BTC it would drop sub $10 again. Fact.

The chances of that may be low, but this is the state of affairs when bitcoin is this small. It needs more widespread adoption before it is safe.


Title: Re: my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on March 12, 2013, 12:46:10 PM
It doesn't affect those companies since they accepts through Bitpay and Coinbase, and Mega doesn't matter enough. However, perception may be damaged, and we are above the exponential trendline so the drop will be sharper and might induce a longer panic. That would be a godsend for all who understand Bitcoin and think they missed their chance to buy in.