Bitcoin Forum

http://s1.postimage.org/s1ymgvgpr/2013_03_15_2013_02_15_BTC_Chart.jpg

Click HERE (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigHourlyzczsg2013-02-15zeg2013-03-15ztgCzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzv) to see the original chart.

Also, part of the contrarian in me thinks the dominant short-term perspective is that Bitcoin is overbought, especially after seeing this (http://www.newstatesman.com/economics/2013/03/bitcoin-what-bubble-looks) (fairly ignorant) article. I think there may be another short-term pop.

Thoughts?

this should be moved into the speculation subforum.

I'd say the odds are 50/50.

Up/Down.

Bitcoin still has very low penetration compared to the size of the online payment market.

For this reason, I'd say it was under-bought.

My thoughts are that we are going to break up through $50 before the end of March and head up to much higher prices thereafter. Beyond $50 I think will be the start of bubble territory, until now we are still in quite a well defined long term up trend. 

In the graph, the 1st "crash" was a correction because the prices raised like 15$ in 2 days.  The second one was the blockchain split panic.  Now it's pretty stable, and I don't see any reason for the prices to crash again.  Monday is coming, along with other news, and that will decide if prices goes up or down...  ;)

I never do predictions but I honestly think our prices fulfill every condition of this pattern, and I think OP's prediction of a little pop is correct. I'm putting my own money down as a result. Either way, everyone knows the primary trend is up.

No matter what happens the price won't touch 50 unless someone purchases their way through that huge sell wall of 30,000 BTC.

My theory is that someone is deliberately keeping the price stable between $46.5-$48 for some reason and even if someone did start buying that sell wall another one would appear.

I don't think anyone is "keeping" the price where it is...  Sure we do see a lot of small transactions (bots) doing transactions around 47~48, but it's the big transactions who drive the price.  I think people are just waiting for news.

We'll see how the Cyprus/IMF "tax" will play into this...  :)

This triangle is not bullish, if you look closely the upper line is slightly descending (and not ascending as you have wrongly painted it in your chart), it is trying hard to look bullish but failing to reach at least the previous level on each new attempt (and therefore failing to paint at least a horizontal upper line into the chart) is actually bearish, expect a serious drop (short term, buying opportunity) before it actually breaks the $50.

Note that this is not the ultimate reversal but its also not a continuation pattern. There will be a serious correction before it can continue.

The triangles correspond to two completely unrelated events.

Fundamentally you're looking at two strong rebounds followed by a calm market that is trying to break through but is held back by an artificially manipulated selling wall.

"Serious Correction"? there's nothing magic about a triangle; you can't divorce the charts from the fundamentals.

There won't be a big sell-off. I'm still expecting a breakthrough to $50 once the "sell-wallers" realise that -- actually -- a manipulated market is far less appealing to investors than a naturally volatile one.

I always like to see technical analysis threads start with the word 'Bullish'. It's so near to self-awareness, but not quite there. You have to squint a bit.

Everytime I see the word "manipulated" in such discussions to explain things that are not immediately explainable through the (always incomplete and often plain wrong) model of the fundamentalists I usually stop reading.

Everything is "manipulated"! Even my small 5 BTC orders are manipulated because I created them manually with totally evil and egoistic intentions that others may lose and I may profit. These orders did not happen naturally. Its a market, thats how it works.

Also I am not separating the charts and the fundamentals, quite the opposite, I regard the chart as the ultimate manifestation and the sum of *all* these influences, *BUT* I don't look at them separately because it is most often totally impossible to know exactly how strong each of them will affect price until after it has actually happened. Because I know my model is most likely plain wrong I don't use it at all! Using only the chart and the orderbook and trying to guess the subtle changes in market sentiment and the strength of bulls and bears from there alone and NOT trying to interpret any misunderstood/overvalued/underestimated/unknown fundamentals at all has made me a better trader during all these many years.

The simplest reason for why the price stopped going up is that fewer bitcoins are being purchased. Just look at the daily volume since the 13th:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv)

The upper line doesn't matter, and was probably flat even. I drew that with MS Paint. What matters was the formation of a big triangle, then the smaller one. Regardless, I was right ;D.

would you guys say we're forming another one at the moment?

No! It has a triangular shape but not a triangle.
A triangle has a flat top, ascending bottom. A flat bottom, descending top. Or a symmetrical triangle with descending top and ascending bottom.

If it has both ascending/descending lines, it makes a wedge. A true wedge is only found in a wave-1, wave-5, wave-A and wave-C. waves 1 and A are leading diagonals while waves 5 and C are ending diagonals.

Triangles are corrective and All wedges are impulsive.

So....

Good? Bad? Pretend we're retarded children.

Not bad I don't think, I don't see anything that indicates a change in trend at least.
If coins are selling for $100+ on other exchanges i think we're good.


this looks good, but i'm still not well enough versed in TA yet to confirm:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant_continu
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zig6-hourzczsg2013-03-19zeg2013-04-02ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I think the market has spoken! ;)