Bitcoin Forum

Nah bro, this ain't no cup and handle. I think the rally will come later this year

i see this phrase thrown around every few days. then nothing much happens. how many times in the past has a predicted one actually come true?

All these FORKS, CUPS, HANDLES, SPOONS, & PLATES.

daddy gotta eat

The problem is, the appearance can be there, but the actual action and volume doesn't match so it was never actually a cup and handle or head and shoulders or inverse batman... A true C&H of that size will have many months of sideways to down movement just to form the handle. Volume profiles would have to be adhered to also. After all that, there is still only a 40-60% chance it will fully play out. It is well known in Bitcoin that H&S will get false breakouts just to play fools before it reverses on them and ultimately deems it "not actually a H&S/C&H". They are really the least reliable patterns in Bitcoin, and can only be confirmed once complete. Then, it's too late to trade anyway.
A week or so ago there was a thread that someone predicted imminent breakout of a H&S. Well, it did break above the neckline and fulfilled about 10% of the target move before reversing and falling back below support. This is the false break out I meant. It was not a H&S because it didn't get anywhere near the target. I suspect this will be a similar result if it even gets to test the 2013 high to make the neckline.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=&c=1&s=2013-01-01&e=2016-07-07&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=30-min&c=1&s=2013-10-01&e=2013-11-15&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

The last couple weeks of action resembles a possible fractal of the price action between November 7-10 of 2013, during the beginning stage of the run-up to $1100+

If cycle is playing out about 6x longer than the last cycle.  If it were a fractal (of the previous cycle) than we'd expect to see a continuation of the run-up (after a little more of a price battle at current levels) within a 2-3 weeks.  We would again experience a similar consolidation phase a couple more times before peaking out sometime within a few months. 

Of course, past performance does not always predict future trends.  This is just one possible price path that the market could take.

I have my doubts about technical analysis.
People read too much into imaginary patterns.  :P