Bitcoin Forum

I am planning to buy Avalon batch 3..is batch 3 invitations only?

No, it will be open just like the previous ones. The site doesn't work properly atm because they're most likely busy with other things. They are just finishing shipping for the first batch/starting shipping for the second one, so I guess there's still a while to go until they announce the third batch. I say don't worry, we'll have plenty of forewarning.

The web page is under preparation. Where did you get the information of "invitation only"?

+1 alot of folk keep talking about invitations.

yes it is invitation only plz send 2 btc to 1LXDXP7366xoEh2eDHXfug9mQHCmAT8jmH and I will give u an invite.

41:73:73:68:6f:6c:65  >:(

I am doubtful on the invitations, it may be a way to reserve your spot so we don't create another DDoS attack on their servers.  Yifu said a main stated goal was to secure the network by getting as many units into as many hands as possible.  That is a reason for the 3 unit limit on this last batch (yes, I know some people got around this).

There was a 3 unit limit on batch 2 or will be on batch 3? Do you have a link to more info on this?

yeah, they should do invitations. if you have ordered asic from batch #1 or #2 you can invite someone. Amount of invitations is proportioned to amount asics you've bought. So, you can either invite yourself or someone else. Those invitations would be sold nicely, huh? ;D

On batch #2 it was 3.  It has not been announced for Batch 3.

Interesting. I had ordered pretty early that day and did not encounter any limit or message stating such. A friend of mine also had ordered more than 3 later in the day and had no problems either. Was this something that happened at a later point in the day after the payment processor issues, etc?

It is not invitation only. According to ngzhang, the Batch#3 will open very soon at a much higher price.

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1550&extra=page%3D1

Http://store.avalon-asics.com/?product=avalon-asic-unit


Avalon ASIC Unit – Batch Three
From: ฿88.00

Rather, it is not much higher, but "improved". It may be "much lower" ;)

The price will be from BTC88 to BTC115 depending on number of slots.

wow 5200$  ???

hope the trade in price stays at 1500

88 to 115 btc? If the specs are similar to the units of the first 2 batches that price is SO wrong. They have been advertising 1.500usd until a few days ago. At that price, it was a "safe" gamble. At +5.000usd, if the GHs are still 65 to 85GHs, the gamble is very risky. With both the btc price and the difficulty is skyrocketing, it's much safer to hold on your BTC, and way for a "second gen" ASICs.

BTC88 - BTC115 !!!

Wow! Greed takes over. This is a sure shot losing proposal for anyone purchasing these.

I thought it was mistake but I guess it's not?  ???

Yeah, that pretty much destroys my plan for getting one device from batch#3.

Yeah, now it's PURE GAMBLE with negative expected value. If btc/usd skyrockets and difficulty climbs reasonably low (meaning that no other player delivers ASICs), it may be profitable in quite a long term. If difficulty climbs fast (meaning more ASICs reaching miners), btc/usd stays pretty much the same, at this price AVALON ASICs is a losing bet for sure.

Greed takes over. Pretty bad move from a consumer point of view.

At that price, given the current exchange rate, I'm seriously reconsidering my desire to buy a batch 3 miner.  I'd be more inclined to simply put the cash that I do have (and not enough to buy a batch 3) into btc and hold on.

The expected value of buying btc and holding is much higher than buying an AVALON batch #3 unit at +5.000usd.

At 1.500usd it was uncertain, but at least ROI was feasible and mining has other incentives (securing the network, etc.). But at +5000usd? NO WAY.

I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling this.  As much as I want to support btc, at this price I'm afraid my support will be limited to buying stuff using btc when I can.  It's a shame, because I _want_ to support the network.

BTC pricing is fine - the problem is merchant product pricing. They should adjust BTC price according to fiat value. All these discussion about avalon batch 3 originated from the static page someone found. However, if avalon actually adjusts the BTC price taking care of the market value, that should do it.

For example, someone also mentioned the 88BTC - 115BTC price is taking BTC value at usd 20. If that is computed accordingly, things would be fine.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbbs.btcman.com%2Fforum.php%3Fmod%3Dviewthread%26tid%3D1550%26extra%3Dpage%253D1

As quoted from chinese forum the price WILL BE between 88-115 BTC.
So with BFL on the way it wont be profitable. Better to invest in BTC.

Funny thing is that they say 90 btc is estimated on "reasonably expected ROI". Yeah, "reasonably expected" if BFL is a scam, no other player delivers ANY ASIC in 2013, and ASICminer does not deploy any more THs.

Even if all the above turns out to be true and AVALON is the only company deploying ASICs from now on, the ROI will be in aprox. 3 months. And believing that all the points above are true is a +5.000usd bet I'm not willing to take.

For me you've nailed it.  For one, they are now gouging us because they can, selling a product that was profitable for $1500 for $6000, and that just feels wrong to me as a customer.  And for two, they are taking out a huge chunk of batch 3 miner profits through this price increase, while the batch 3 miners are still wearing all the uncertainty and risk (risk of adverse btc movement, risk of BFL shipping, risk of huge difficulty increase, risk of ASICminer doubling up, risk of another player bringing something to market).

I'd buy one for $5k but only if I knew I'd receive it within a few days and they wouldn't ship more than a few hundred. But if it's going to take another month to ship batch 3, forget it, at that price.

Love when people throw around numbers like "3 month" randomly without any math.

the current difficulty is a little below 5,000,000, which a three module Avalon will produce ~6 BTC a day under these conditions.

Let's see how "3 month" ROI actually looks like.

If difficulty raises to 30,000,000 each three module Avalon will produce 1 BTC a day, enabling a break-even in 90 days.

So yes, if you think we are going to get a 6x difficulty increase between now and May, let's even say June! then by all means, please don't purchase Avalon, because I wouldn't.

Oh, pleeeeeease, cry me a river.  ::) This free market is exactly what you people were screaming for all the time. This is exactly what you wanted. You made the soup, now eat it.

Well, how many units do you plan to deploy summing up batchs 1, 2 and 3? That's 67GHs x 1500 units, correct? Doesn't that take difficulty at least to 3x, counting that no other player (not BFL, not ASICminer, not others) starts deploying/delivering ASICs?

yes of course, AMD can release 23nm ASIC middle of May!

If you wish to shoulder the risks then by all means buy it, if you do not, then don't. Honestly if we wanted to min-max on profit we wouldn't have sold any. All Avalon is doing is offering people a chance to take this investment.

Free market, Avalon can do what they want, and we can buy or not buy.  But those of us who would like to buy but find the product to expensive are free to complain.  And Avalon are free to ignore.  And you are free to buy anyway. 

Amen

The post in question states


360 yuan is almost USD 58 - a price BTC touched today.  The post was made today.

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1550&extra=page%3D1

Yes, I know, this was the second post made confirming the price. I have seen the confirmation afterwards - and the above reply was before I had seen that.

I don't get it.  All I can say is "bring on the free market competition".  Come on BFL.  Come on whoever else is out there and has been sniffing around BTC.

There is a very real chance that someone who splashes out 88btc on an Avalon batch 3 unit is going to get burned, given the estimated time to delivery.  In the end it is up to each and every one of us to decide the risk of the network hash rate going up by a factor of, say, 10 in the next 3 to 6 months, and weigh it up compared to the reward if it doesn't.

Estimated price of batch #3 is 88BTC to 115BTC base on current exchanging price. NGZhang already mentioned.

what is with batch 2 trade-in?

Here for batch 3:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155345.0

Hang on, did anyone got their Avalon ASIC form batch 1? :)

No, I'm not interested in Chinese accounts. Anyone from europe care to post pics?

Try to keep up.  Someone from Belarus posted pictures of 4 Avalons running side by side.

Or, you could just use a calculator and the hash rate charts on bitcoincharts to know that most all batch one units are in the wild and hashing.

LOL, really? 1 person from Belarus...
Though I'm not suprised. Seems there are people who see a hashrate chart and know exactly where that hashrate belongs...well done you sir.

There are multiple accounts of people in Sweden, Switserland, Belgium and Italy that have received their machines. I got units delivered on the 8th of March (Brussels)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=141154.0

Holy crap, people are still doubting these exist? There's a healthy dose of skepticism and then there's hard headed ignorance. This would be an example of the unhealthy derivative.