Bitcoin Forum

I think Bitcoin's are worth at least around $1,000 - $10,000.

However I expected it to take several years to get there.

At this current rate of increase, I think we will crash hard.

It will recover, but it will take a bit longer, because at the current rates we will hit $10,000 by years end. (Which does not seem sustainable)

Either way, this is history in the making.

The logic of someone with a LTC address in the sig is suspect by default.

Actually, I tought it would raise as high, but when ASIC start coming out (more mainstream), and difficulty raise through the roof.  But now it seem fueled by the Cypress/Euro news and FinCEN (and speculation).

Quoting for emphasis

:)

+21 million BTC

Yes I invested into Litecoin, it was cheap and a little hedge in case Litecoin ever takes off.

Although I would prefer the Bitcoin price to fall, as all of you do, so that we can mop up as much as possible. :)

I agree with the OP.

However, the market penetration is far greater at this time than it was in 2011. This means we can have a far bigger bubble this time.

I think there are two common mindsets about financial bubbles when they're building up. Firstly, there are those who are in denial about the bubble and think that the growth is natural. Secondly, there are those who acknowledge the existence of the bubble but underestimate its size.

I think if anything, I feel like the second type. I feel like this bubble is going to pop soon and have sent fiat toward Gox in case of this but I am probably wrong and will wait and wait until Bitcoin is worth hundreds or thousands. Thats ok, I still have my original Bitcoin and my only lose is waiting for a pop and missing out on $70-$80 being cheap.

There may be some hacks in store for careless people, but the only thing slowing Bitcoin right now is the bottleneck at the exchanges.

ITT: Buddish bears determine that the bubble exists because we can simply imagine its existence.

ommmmmmmmmmmm

Am I doin it right? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=NgWn7zbgxZ4#t=38s)

I...I don't...

I'm so scared right now.

Actually the ratio of speculation to BTC transactions has been decreasing (https://blockchain.info/charts/tx-trade-ratio?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0) since October 2012:

http://www.jfwhome.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/btratio-1024x607.png

(this shows the level of trade compared to overall BTC transactions)

Overall speculative levels are very high, but nothing compared to previous bubbles:

http://www.jfwhome.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/btspikes-1024x587.png

I'm not convinced this is a bubble. You can't just look at the price data.


Furthermore number of new users using BTC has been growing at a steady rate since Dec. It was growing prior to that, but at a slower rate.

See, number of new Bitcoin addresses (https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses):

http://www.jfwhome.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/btadd.png

While these users are the same demographic of users that will use BTC online, I don't see a big problem.

Any time the user base is growing, assuming a certain % of them save/hold BTC, one would expect exponential gains. So when you plot increases on a logarithmic graph, you should see a straight line. Depending on the doubling rate of the new users, that straight line will have a different intercept.

That's exactly what I'm seeing. this is the China /BTC exchange rate on a log chart. The rise in price corresponds neatly with the influx of new users. So I don't think anyone is over-reaching themselves; the market is just expanding and the price rising accordingly.

http://www.jfwhome.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/btcny.png

Lets just hope that all those new users are not just speculators and that they really want to use this new currency.

Well, that was the point of the first chart. It seems to show we are OK so far this year.

However, the success of BTC as a currency will have a magnifying effect as investors pile in too. There is space for both. As the overall usage of BTC increases, there will be more appetite for speculation, and the maximum sustainable ratio of speculation will increase.

However since the ratio appears to be decreasing right now, I'm not sure we even need to bother calculating that yet.

Speculation in form of daytraders is what stabilizes the prices right now. They are the ones that take the profit in a swing from 69 to 74 and back at 69 buy back in. A certain amount of speculation gives the market its immune system.

Hey, don't knock it, it worked for centuries for the existence of god. Google "ontological argument"  ;D