Bitcoin Forum

I think this rally has been getting ahead of itself - thoughts?

I thought that very same thing...


...at $35

Right now a big spender is trying damn hard to push it down. Constantly laying on the super walls and the sizable asks right at the bid price.

Even on a logarithmic scale it's spiked above the trend. I would feel a lot more comfortable if it dipped again for now, or at least slowed to steady exponential growth.

I'd be happy with that also. I would enjoy sustained growth.

+1

Then again at $45

And again at $68

Haha, we are calling exponential growth 'steady' now  ;D

Yeah, re-reading it I guess that doesn't really make sense but I think you get what I meant.

i think everyone knows it has to cool off, i'd be delighted if it stays above $60 for a week or more, get our breath back then march on up to 100

I think we could dip as low as 66-ish, but will take at least one more crack at 74-ish before a more major pullback. Or we could just bust upwards and keep going. But I'm mostly pulling all this out of my butt.  :D

The joy of the speculation sub-forum. Everyone here shits pearls of wisdom.

It makes perfect sense to say something like this now.  I just found it funny because it clearly shows the situation we are in.

'Steady exponential growth' should normally be something of an oxymoron...

...but Bitcoin ;D

indeed

I won't be surprised if we pull back to exponential support at $50, nor will I be surprised if we bum-rush $100 in a few days.

Because if we're now reaching the millionaires' club, we're going to have to shift up to a new exponent at some point. A steeper slope on the log-scale chart.

But I want to buy more coins  :'(

It's unreasonable to expect steady exponential (or steady anything) growth.

The user base will come flooding in in fits and starts.

For example, say the current rise is from the "Reddit effect". We all know that Redditors can bring down websites when they flood across the Internet to visit stories. It's unreasonable to expect that they will flow in in an exponential fashion: with one friend telling 2 and those 2 telling 4, and so on... rather, they will all descend at once.

There was a jump in prices as they all finally got funds cleared and bought. Then the price rose by ~60%, which will result in a renewed flourish of Internet activity, which will result in additional waves of takeup down the road.

I expect the same will be true for institutional or large investors. Big buys, then an amplifying network effect.

So rather than steady growth, we will see S-curve jumps. Each s-curve will have a ripple of following activity -- either resonant/amplifying, or dampening.

I expect (wild guess) the "Reddit effect" will be a large s-curve followed by smaller (dampening) s-curves.
I expect (wild guess) that the "Big investors" and the increased interest from European investors are a small effect now, but will be followed by amplifying effects.

Anyway, to cut to the chase.... It's reasonable to expect a much-high-than-exponential growth in the early days, interspersed with short periods of calm. I don't think that is indicative of a bubble. In fact, it makes sense to make the best of the steep part of each of the S-curves.... The bigger the stone cast, the wider the ripples.

As I see on market depth, the crash could start at $74

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png

Crash?

All the way down to $71.9 maybe....

Last night the wall from $68.9 - $70 was over 10k BTC, and it came crashing down in a matter of hours. This wall is only ~$8k. There is less buying pressure due to the time of the day, but there is no sign of a crash.

That said, I guess we will stay around here for a day or two. I expect $75-> high $90s will be very swift next week.

Just a guess though -- it could all happen much sooner than that.

Is 64 now and going down. Panic ?

Nope, just a correction down to support, and helped by the intimidation walls of our 'benevolent manipulator' (if they are benevolent haha)

Agreed, I'd be happy with that.

Good weekend to buy I reckon

To a physicist or mathematician, it can be. Its a proportionality thing.

To clarify: It would be nice to see the growth rate fit a curve with a zero gradient second derivative, i.e. steady acceleration, none of this increasing rate of change of the rate of change malarkey.

There'll be a place like that in the s-curve (and probably a few along the way too :D )

Bitcoin roller-coaster  :D