Title: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: leowonderful on July 24, 2016, 05:43:56 PM https://s31.postimg.org/lprc0ddlj/bitcoin_hash_rate_1.png (https://postimg.org/image/lprc0ddlj/)
Dropping significantly, probably a large farm turning off right now. No blocks have been mined for 50 minutes now, pretty dramatic drop. I expected this, though. Sorry for the tiny picture, click on the image itself and it should be a lot bigger. :/ The next difficulty could be as much as 10% lower than now or even up to 20% if this trend continues, although I think 20 is pretty... out there. Seriously, though, this has a huge impact on the mempool in the short, since the fees you need to get a transaction in for the next block are at nearly 100. To give you an idea, I deposited 20$ onto a website about an hour and 20 minutes ago, with the recommended fee of around 55 at the time, and 1 hour and 20 minutes later, it's still not confirmed and the recommended fee has blown up for at least these few blocks. Annoying, but I can deal with it for now. 10,000 unconfirmed may be happening soon with the block generation time this damn high. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: GreatNorthData on July 24, 2016, 07:22:32 PM Large scale operations have other factors, like the rent/mortgage/employees/electrical rates/other one time costs etc., which means that the exact date of the halving might not be the ideal time to unplug, it might be a month or two later. Halvings in the future will probably have a prolonged effect as the margins get tighter. It'll look more and more like the oil and natural gas rig counts that traders follow. Or in the mining industry, a lot of mines run until the most expensive piece of capital equipment breaks. That's when it is "under water" from fiscal perspective.
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: xhomerx10 on July 24, 2016, 07:24:18 PM It doesn't make sense that miners are shutting down now. Before the block reward halving, KNCminer reprted they would have to declare bankruptcy due to their electricity costs. At a time when Bitcoin was worth ~$480, they claimed their cost per Bitcoin was $440 (this is from memory, it might have been slightly more or less) and their electricity costs were $0.196 per kWhr. I did some math and it turns out that about $200 of that cost per Bitcoin was electricity. Difficulty has not increased significantly since their announcement so after the halving, the cost per coin for electricity would be ~ $400 and the total cost per coin ~ $640. Bitcoin is still worth more than that. Also, KNC would have been the most expensive miner out there with the cost of living in Sweden and the electricity costs considered not to mention their taxes are through the roof. Consider also this:
422107 (Main Chain) 2016-07-24 16:59:14 KnCMiner 000000000000000001b63fcce1fa4b54bdf35971ac553ed7d50f97777d2963fc Who is shutting down!? I say it's just an anomaly and is simply an extended bout of bad luck that is indicating an apparent decline in hash rate even though all the equipment is still mining. I don't believe it is caused by miners shutting down (at least not yet). Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: cryptotore on July 24, 2016, 07:57:53 PM It doesn't make sense that miners are shutting down now. Before the block reward halving, KNCminer reprted they would have to declare bankruptcy due to their electricity costs. At a time when Bitcoin was worth ~$480, they claimed their cost per Bitcoin was $440 (this is from memory, it might have been slightly more or less) and their electricity costs were $0.196 per kWhr. I did some math and it turns out that about $200 of that cost per Bitcoin was electricity. Difficulty has not increased significantly since their announcement so after the halving, the cost per coin for electricity would be ~ $400 and the total cost per coin ~ $640. Bitcoin is still worth more than that. Also, KNC would have been the most expensive miner out there with the cost of living in Sweden and the electricity costs considered not to mention their taxes are through the roof. Consider also this: 422107 (Main Chain) 2016-07-24 16:59:14 KnCMiner 000000000000000001b63fcce1fa4b54bdf35971ac553ed7d50f97777d2963fc Who is shutting down!? I say it's just an anomaly and is simply an extended bout of bad luck that is indicating an apparent decline in hash rate even though all the equipment is still mining. I don't believe it is caused by miners shutting down (at least not yet). 0.19$/kWh can't be right. It's normal with prices around 0.07 for home residents in Norway/Sweden. Surely a huge operation like KNC had bulk prices.. Edit: Actually the electricity price is around 0.02$/kWh when not paying for the transport of power. aka buying directly from a hydroplant like KNC did. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: alh on July 24, 2016, 08:01:47 PM It doesn't make sense that miners are shutting down now. Before the block reward halving, KNCminer reprted they would have to declare bankruptcy due to their electricity costs. At a time when Bitcoin was worth ~$480, they claimed their cost per Bitcoin was $440 (this is from memory, it might have been slightly more or less) and their electricity costs were $0.196 per kWhr. I did some math and it turns out that about $200 of that cost per Bitcoin was electricity. Difficulty has not increased significantly since their announcement so after the halving, the cost per coin for electricity would be ~ $400 and the total cost per coin ~ $640. Bitcoin is still worth more than that. Also, KNC would have been the most expensive miner out there with the cost of living in Sweden and the electricity costs considered not to mention their taxes are through the roof. Consider also this: 422107 (Main Chain) 2016-07-24 16:59:14 KnCMiner 000000000000000001b63fcce1fa4b54bdf35971ac553ed7d50f97777d2963fc Who is shutting down!? I say it's just an anomaly and is simply an extended bout of bad luck that is indicating an apparent decline in hash rate even though all the equipment is still mining. I don't believe it is caused by miners shutting down (at least not yet). I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from KNC's decision to declare bankruptcy. They most assuredly didn't wait until they had no choice. Their decision looks to me to be more preemptive in nature. KNC must have some gear that's worth running anymore, and they can easily turn that off as they start to unwind their operations. They don't have to have a "fire sale", though liquidation companies sometime just want to get through the process of converting assets into money (fiat, not BTC). I think there is plenty of gear being turned off due to the halving. It may not be just huge farms, but a thousand farms for which a small profit isn't interesting any more. When the easy money evaporates, some folks will just quit. If they can find a buyer, then their gear will return to service somewhere. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: DaveF on July 24, 2016, 09:42:05 PM 1) Most of the US is having a major heatwave. So a lot of people running 1 or 2 older quiet miners at home (Avalon 4, S3 etc.) that were on the edge and "well why not leave it on after the halving anyway just to make some coin even at a loss" might have turned them off.
2) S7s / Avalon 6s are no longer profitable to people with expensive electricity rates. Once they get their 1st bill after the halving then, off they go. 3) ??? 4) Some other big player took a hit with the flooding in China. -Dave Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: xhomerx10 on July 24, 2016, 10:09:47 PM It doesn't make sense that miners are shutting down now. Before the block reward halving, KNCminer reprted they would have to declare bankruptcy due to their electricity costs. At a time when Bitcoin was worth ~$480, they claimed their cost per Bitcoin was $440 (this is from memory, it might have been slightly more or less) and their electricity costs were $0.196 per kWhr. I did some math and it turns out that about $200 of that cost per Bitcoin was electricity. Difficulty has not increased significantly since their announcement so after the halving, the cost per coin for electricity would be ~ $400 and the total cost per coin ~ $640. Bitcoin is still worth more than that. Also, KNC would have been the most expensive miner out there with the cost of living in Sweden and the electricity costs considered not to mention their taxes are through the roof. Consider also this: 422107 (Main Chain) 2016-07-24 16:59:14 KnCMiner 000000000000000001b63fcce1fa4b54bdf35971ac553ed7d50f97777d2963fc Who is shutting down!? I say it's just an anomaly and is simply an extended bout of bad luck that is indicating an apparent decline in hash rate even though all the equipment is still mining. I don't believe it is caused by miners shutting down (at least not yet). 0.19$/kWh can't be right. It's normal with prices around 0.07 for home residents in Norway/Sweden. Surely a huge operation like KNC had bulk prices.. Edit: Actually the electricity price is around 0.02$/kWh when not paying for the transport of power. aka buying directly from a hydroplant like KNC did. Okay let's say the price is around 0.02$/kWh to start... I had to search it out and I was slightly off the mark but here it is: http://www.breakit.se/artikel/3867/svenska-bitcoin-jatten-knc-miner-i-konkurs-konkurrensen-for-tuff and the relevant section is: Sam Cole also highlights the increasingly fierce competition - and the Swedish energy tax. In Denmark, for example, data centers pay about 0.5 cents per kilowatt hour - in Sweden the figure is 19.2 cents per kilowatt hour. Granted, Sam Cole has been known to embellish (a lot) and I'm still looking for the article in which he tells KNCminer's cost per Bitcoin. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: xhomerx10 on July 24, 2016, 10:20:18 PM It doesn't make sense that miners are shutting down now. Before the block reward halving, KNCminer reprted they would have to declare bankruptcy due to their electricity costs. At a time when Bitcoin was worth ~$480, they claimed their cost per Bitcoin was $440 (this is from memory, it might have been slightly more or less) and their electricity costs were $0.196 per kWhr. I did some math and it turns out that about $200 of that cost per Bitcoin was electricity. Difficulty has not increased significantly since their announcement so after the halving, the cost per coin for electricity would be ~ $400 and the total cost per coin ~ $640. Bitcoin is still worth more than that. Also, KNC would have been the most expensive miner out there with the cost of living in Sweden and the electricity costs considered not to mention their taxes are through the roof. Consider also this: 422107 (Main Chain) 2016-07-24 16:59:14 KnCMiner 000000000000000001b63fcce1fa4b54bdf35971ac553ed7d50f97777d2963fc Who is shutting down!? I say it's just an anomaly and is simply an extended bout of bad luck that is indicating an apparent decline in hash rate even though all the equipment is still mining. I don't believe it is caused by miners shutting down (at least not yet). I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from KNC's decision to declare bankruptcy. They most assuredly didn't wait until they had no choice. Their decision looks to me to be more preemptive in nature. KNC must have some gear that's worth running anymore, and they can easily turn that off as they start to unwind their operations. They don't have to have a "fire sale", though liquidation companies sometime just want to get through the process of converting assets into money (fiat, not BTC). I think there is plenty of gear being turned off due to the halving. It may not be just huge farms, but a thousand farms for which a small profit isn't interesting any more. When the easy money evaporates, some folks will just quit. If they can find a buyer, then their gear will return to service somewhere. If I know KNCminer, they waited just long enough to post losses over and above what they owe to customers who are involved in the class action lawsuit. IMO , they had nothing but contempt for their customers after the first miners were sold. Maybe since the price of Bitcoin rose after the announcement, the bankruptcy trustee will be able to get some money from the sale of assets? It could still be profitable for somebody paying less for power... such as in Denmark apparently? Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Goms on July 25, 2016, 06:59:56 PM Even though KNC miner has declared bankruptcy, it will still bounce back. You will see, they have gone too far to turn back now.
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: cpfreeplz on July 25, 2016, 07:13:41 PM Even though KNC miner has declared bankruptcy, it will still bounce back. You will see, they have gone too far to turn back now. What does that even mean? Do you understand what bankruptcy is? No they won't bounce back lol. They're bankrupt. Maybe the owners will open a new company but only time will tell. Well right after the halving it seemed fairly flat (ip 3% down 2%, etc) so this could just be 'back to normal' because there used to be higher swings before the halving. +/- 8% was normal in any weekly period. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Jebuswalks22 on July 25, 2016, 08:49:48 PM What effect will it have on mining in a pool
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: QuintLeo on July 25, 2016, 09:00:33 PM Even though KNC miner has declared bankruptcy, they will still bounce back. You will see, they have gone too far to turn back now. I would not bet on that. They alienated WAY too many customers and generated WAY too much negative reputation. They might be able to bounce back as a self-contained farm, but even THAT looks iffy. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: leowonderful on July 26, 2016, 12:32:24 AM Even though KNC miner has declared bankruptcy, it will still bounce back. You will see, they have gone too far to turn back now. What does that even mean? Do you understand what bankruptcy is? No they won't bounce back lol. They're bankrupt. Maybe the owners will open a new company but only time will tell. Well right after the halving it seemed fairly flat (ip 3% down 2%, etc) so this could just be 'back to normal' because there used to be higher swings before the halving. +/- 8% was normal in any weekly period. Edit 2 Yep, looks like it's old hardware going kaput. Could be as much as 10% down with these trends. Rechecked btcwisdom, and the drop is pretty damn substantial... last time we had drops like these were near last halving, and that was quite a while ago. Nice to see the hashrate finally bank downwards just a little bit after all this difficulty exploding. As to the drops, I mean halving-wise, not the huge petahash-ish spike we had just now. This is a good downwards sign, and it makes a bit more sense than the other drops. Maybe someone selling off some old miners? Could be. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: tbonetony on July 27, 2016, 11:01:09 PM I think 6-8% for the very first drop after halving is modest but not dramatic. I am not sure it would last though. The halving has already shown how resilient and competitive this mining market is....
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: talks_cheep on July 28, 2016, 10:23:50 AM I think 6-8% for the very first drop after halving is modest but not dramatic. I am not sure it would last though. The halving has already shown how resilient and competitive this mining market is.... I agree the hashrate will go skyrocketing again after this drop. S9 is selling like hot cakes, Bitmain is busily replacing S7 with S9 in their Antpool. Bitmain's attitude is "Let them eat cakes"! Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: xhomerx10 on July 28, 2016, 12:11:21 PM What effect will it have on mining in a pool On average, you will continue to get the same number of coins per day as you were since the last difficulty reset provided your own hash rate hasn't changed. If the pool hash rate has dropped then it will take longer to see the rewards but each of your allotments will be proportionally larger than before the decline in hash rate. So the net effect is still zero on you. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: philipma1957 on July 28, 2016, 12:42:15 PM I think 6-8% for the very first drop after halving is modest but not dramatic. I am not sure it would last though. The halving has already shown how resilient and competitive this mining market is.... I agree the hashrate will go skyrocketing again after this drop. S9 is selling like hot cakes, Bitmain is busily replacing S7 with S9 in their Antpool. Bitmain's attitude is "Let them eat cakes"! it won't skyrocket as fast as you think. unless other companies start selling a competitive miner. or price moves to 900 usd a coin once again you don't understand the amount of hashpower that exists and the math for a farm. there is no need to rush to replace an s-7 farm of 1000 s-7's if your power is 7 cents or less. so 1000 x 4.7 th = 4.7ph that is 3582 usd before power 1000 x 1300 watts is 1300kwatts at 7 cents cost 2184 usd a day net daily profit = 1398 a day 1000 x 1300 watts is 1300 kwatts at 6 cents cost 1872 usd a day net daily profit = 1710 a day 1000 x 1300 watts is 1300 kwatts at 5 cents cost 1560 usd a day net daily profit = 2022 a day 1000 x 1300 watts is 1300 kwatts at 4 cents cost 1248 usd a day net daily profit = 2334 a day so if your 4.7 ph 1000 s-7 farm is in the 4 to 7 cent power cost. you buy 5 s-9's at a time. cost about 8000-9000 usd which at the profit I show above takes 4 to 7 days to earn. put in 5 s-9's pull 10 s-7s you add 55-65 th lose 47th a net gain of say 8th-18th and your power drops 6 kwatts since you pulled 10 units of s-7. this make ups for summer heat issues Do this once a week to once every 10 days you slowly upgrade to s-9s at basically next to zero risk. and to further help your bottom line sell the 10 s-7's. So skyrocket is not happening yet, but it will happen my guess is Oct Nov or Dec Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: QuintLeo on July 28, 2016, 06:33:31 PM Hashrate is likely to remain flat or continue dropping a bit right now - Bitmain is being VERY slow to bring their next S9 batch to market (probably ran out of chips and their chipmaker's foundry is likely booked SOLID for a while due to many other folks moving to the 14/16nm node - AMD and NVidia GPU availability indicates serious saturation on foundry capasity).
Still no clue where anyone is at on making Bitfury-based miners.... Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Arnoldent on July 29, 2016, 11:59:50 AM According to https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty, the estimated difficulty will drop 7%, quite large.
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Xircom on August 06, 2016, 01:02:00 PM Nope it wont. It will increase when farms are switching gear. It looks like Bitmain`s Iceland farm changed to S9`s finally and thats why hash skyrockets right now.
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: xhomerx10 on August 06, 2016, 02:13:42 PM So all-in-all it was a rather lackluster drop followed by a very quick recovery. It didn't take a week to replace more than the lost power.
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: talks_cheep on August 06, 2016, 05:33:37 PM At the rate it's increasing, the hashrate will result in %15-%20 increase in the next dff. It's a jaw dropping rate increase, just look at the graph in bitcoinwisdom. Bitmain certainly has been busy replacing their farm with S9 miners, that's why they haven't offered them for sale, their needs come first. Of course, what did you expect?
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: macedoniantable on August 07, 2016, 04:18:03 PM Great news for the ones like me who are thinking about getting into mining and we were the ones that thought it was all too late to join into the fouray. ;D
I think the ship hasn't completed sailed away after all. ;) But it just feels that I am in a dingy trying to catch up with a battleship at this point. :D Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: leowonderful on August 08, 2016, 03:38:41 PM Great news for the ones like me who are thinking about getting into mining and we were the ones that thought it was all too late to join into the fouray. ;D Difficulty drops are usually very short but can be pretty dramatic imo (as seen in this thread). That said, it's not enough time for someone to start mining for a profit. If you have electrical rates of more than 0.1$/kwh, you'll barely be in the business no matter how low difficulty is, and even at 0.09 and 0.08 it's still difficult to mine. I personally don't think this drop was as lackluster as others think it was- it was a nice break from the huge spike we had for several months, but unfortunately was most likely caused by a farm phasing out its miners.I think the ship hasn't completed sailed away after all. ;) But it just feels that I am in a dingy trying to catch up with a battleship at this point. :D Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Karartma1 on August 08, 2016, 03:42:02 PM https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
As of today the next mining difficulty will be 6.06% higher than the actual one. Last time I checked yesterday it was 4% So expect a new higher difficulty once again Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: QuintLeo on August 09, 2016, 09:59:09 PM Starting to look like a lot of the drop was related to the short-term BTC price crash caused by the Bitfinex (sp?) hack/theft, not just the halfing.
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: philipma1957 on August 10, 2016, 12:09:35 AM we are dropping so most likely bitmaintech put in all their new s-9's and are now bundling up their old s-7s'
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1580285.0 ant miner s-7's at 320 with a psu. so some low power cost guy will buy some the rest will sit and do nothing. my guess is we end up plus 5% and then go flat next pair of jumps Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Tupsu on August 10, 2016, 11:20:43 AM .. ant miner s-7's at 320 with a psu. .. the reality is ant miner s-7's at Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Arnoldent on August 14, 2016, 09:41:58 AM Starting to look like a lot of the drop was related to the short-term BTC price crash caused by the Bitfinex (sp?) hack/theft, not just the halfing. That is what I think. The next difficulty is expected to increase by 7.4%. That will be another all time high. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: mOgliE on August 14, 2016, 09:45:33 AM .. ant miner s-7's at 320 with a psu. .. the reality is ant miner s-7's at 320 + a psu for 105 = total set for 425 x 50pc +shipping Yeah and I don't think even difficulty drop will make mining Worthing it for normal users :/ Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: QuintLeo on August 14, 2016, 09:43:29 PM Yeah and I don't think even difficulty drop will make mining Worthing it for normal users :/ The difficulty drop is over - the last 2 weeks has seen enough gain to wipe out that short-term drop. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Arnoldent on September 12, 2016, 06:42:15 AM Yeah and I don't think even difficulty drop will make mining Worthing it for normal users :/ The difficulty drop is over - the last 2 weeks has seen enough gain to wipe out that short-term drop. The difficulty is at all time high now. It seems the S9 will drive the difficulty even higher as it is very efficient. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: leowonderful on September 14, 2016, 12:12:05 AM Yeah and I don't think even difficulty drop will make mining Worthing it for normal users :/ The difficulty drop is over - the last 2 weeks has seen enough gain to wipe out that short-term drop. The difficulty is at all time high now. It seems the S9 will drive the difficulty even higher as it is very efficient. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: Arnoldent on October 04, 2016, 05:08:51 PM Yeah and I don't think even difficulty drop will make mining Worthing it for normal users :/ The difficulty drop is over - the last 2 weeks has seen enough gain to wipe out that short-term drop. The difficulty is at all time high now. It seems the S9 will drive the difficulty even higher as it is very efficient. The difficulty is rising faster than 3% on average since the halving. That is due to the running of the S9. Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: PremiumCodeX on October 29, 2016, 06:05:51 AM I am not sure how it will change in the future, but I know the last few batches of BTC will be released over the next few years so we may see some strange changes in future graphs.
Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: xhomerx10 on October 29, 2016, 12:21:25 PM I am not sure how it will change in the future, but I know the last few batches of BTC will be released over the next few years so we may see some strange changes in future graphs. Maybe you could clarify what you mean by the last few batches of BTC will be released... Batches from where? Who is releasing them and from what are they being released? Is it the US Marshal service again? Title: Re: difficulty finally dropping like expected- dramatically. Post by: leowonderful on October 29, 2016, 03:52:55 PM I am not sure how it will change in the future, but I know the last few batches of BTC will be released over the next few years so we may see some strange changes in future graphs. Maybe you could clarify what you mean by the last few batches of BTC will be released... Batches from where? Who is releasing them and from what are they being released? Is it the US Marshal service again? |