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Title: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: GotBitCoins on March 22, 2013, 03:55:15 PM Folks,
Here's the silver chart, beginning of 1980. For months it was traded for 10 $ a coin. And then around december 79 and around the beginning of December 79 @ around 20$ - it went balistic. At first it would climb 1.4% a day and then it went up at 6.7% a day til it got to 40$ where it had a mini correction and then resumed its climb till the all time high at around 50$ per coin!!! https://dl.dropbox.com/u/42701585/8MonthsSilverChart.jpg And here we are again 33 years after - the people that are trading bitcoin today weren't even born in 1980 but nothing has changed - Are we at SOME top here - or should we experience a mini correction on our way for the final blow-out @100$ ??? https://dl.dropbox.com/u/42701585/7MonthsBitCoinChart.jpg I am not saying that this would be the end of bitcoin as we know it... - it could go one day way beyond 100$ but for the time being this paraboloa is accelerating at ~11% per day - twice as fast as the rate silver was rising during the huge once in a life time super spike of the 80s.... GotBitCoins. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: DannyHamilton on March 22, 2013, 05:24:46 PM - snip - I am not saying that this would be the end of bitcoin as we know it... - it could go one day way beyond 100$ but for the time being this paraboloa is accelerating at ~11% per day - twice as fast as the rate silver was rising during the huge once in a life time super spike of the 80s.... Do you have any information on how quickly the value of silver rose during the first 5 years after it was discovered? Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: TeeBone on March 22, 2013, 05:44:54 PM Classic bubble, you can see it from 10 miles away...the panic buying is getting, well, pretty panicky lol
You dont have to go back to 1980, in '11 when silver was skyrocketing towards 50/oz you saw the same exact feeling of its "nerver going back down again". Ditto with the houseing bubble. I havent bought a single BTC yet, and it's tempting, but why buy now when i know it's gonna drop :) Also, there's an X factor that you cannot apply to trading other commodities - the newness, hacking and other security breaches that can have a severe impact on BTC. This applies elsewhere as well, but not nearly to the extent it does with BTC. Best bet as a hedge against inflation is still gold in my book. Im astonished how underestimated it is, thousands of years timetested and still going strong. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: GotBitCoins on March 23, 2013, 07:55:25 AM I told you....
Is it possible that I nailed the top few hours before it popped? https://dl.dropbox.com/u/42701585/BitCoinTop.jpg If this is it - then 2 days from now we should be at 60% of 75$ = 45$ GotBitCoins Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: desired_username on March 23, 2013, 08:06:29 AM People's idea of a bubble is quite funny. You can only identify a bubble after a crash.
Sure, there are corrections, but that does not mean bubble. It has been said a million times: If BTC will be success, it have to go up in value even further (to accomodate new industries - making place for them in the BTC economy). There is only 1 significant aspect that drives the price and that is adoptation (be it companies adopting it or people investing in it, etc) Anyone who uses the term "bubble" are completely ignorant of the fundamentals of this experiment. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: cosmicblue on March 23, 2013, 08:12:49 AM Quote If this is it - then 2 days from now we should be at 60% of 75$ = 45$ 45$ would be a good bottom.GotBitCoins Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: Sage on March 23, 2013, 08:14:37 AM As of March 5th the momentum increased significantly. Usually a sign of a bubble starting.
But then we saw a consolidation period, and a breakout, with yet a greater momentum increase on 18/19th likely driven by the emotion of fear from the Cyprus thefts. When that fear abates we'll see a correction of any gains that fear caused above and beyond the natural gains Bitcoin would have realized on its prior trend path. Likely not below 47-50sh. It's simply went too far, too fast since the 19th. We are due for a pullback. BUT.... If the blockchain fork didn't pop the "bubble" then that's a damn good sign the fundamentals are driving the price of Bitcoin. We may see a correction, and hopefully a more reasonable and steady price increase afterword, but we are not going to see an all out pop below what it was trading at prior to the blockchain fork. I'm hoping it does get that low. If so I'm cashing out more precious metals and moving to Bitcoin. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: TeeBone on March 23, 2013, 08:17:24 AM It's cash-out time for the early adopters !
I'll predict it settles around $35. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: TeeBone on March 23, 2013, 08:26:21 AM It's cash-out time for the earlier adopters ! definitely not, as an experience trader holding a PhD in market analysis I am quite aware that early adopters are the ones that can be considered 'strong hands', this can be confirmed by checking the earliest blocks mining addresses which have remained in that address for thousands of days I'll predict it settles around $35. BTC is as a whole is 'early' so it's relative. At any rate, surely there's gonna be a significant selloff after the frantic upswing the past few days/weeks. That's expected. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: TeeBone on March 23, 2013, 08:37:24 AM It's cash-out time for the earlier adopters ! definitely not, as an experience trader holding a PhD in market analysis I am quite aware that early adopters are the ones that can be considered 'strong hands', this can be confirmed by checking the earliest blocks mining addresses which have remained in that address for thousands of days I'll predict it settles around $35. BTC is as a whole is 'early' so it's relative. At any rate, surely there's gonna be a significant selloff after the frantic upswing the past few days/weeks. That's expected. The early stage has long passed my friend, Bitcoin is already covered in mainstream pretty much in any developed country Nevertheless I believe we are going to a 1000 based on market analysis Oh, i dont doubt it's going up. Way up. But, not before it dips one more time to 35 bucks lol i dont want to get suckered on my first coin purchase. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: dyseac on March 23, 2013, 08:40:52 AM As an online currency - you could argue everyone on the internet could have a use for bitcoins. There are approx 2.4 billion internet users today.
With only 11 million bitcoins in circulation that equals 0.0045833333333333 bitcoins per internet user. If everyone on the internet wants a coin... it puts them in pretty high demand right now ;) Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: TeeBone on March 23, 2013, 08:47:46 AM Down to 57, 25% loss in a matter of hours...
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: GoldenAngel on March 23, 2013, 08:49:25 AM No doubt this is going to be a huge explosion. You do not even need to go back to the 1980's...
Correlate the 2011 btc graph with today's and it will look shockingly similar. Lots of people are going to get burned. Like really badly burnt. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: wopwop on March 23, 2013, 08:54:45 AM BUY BUY BUY i am buying hands on fist right now can't wait till it goes 1000 $ LOL stupid people selling
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: wopwop on March 23, 2013, 08:56:13 AM Wow cheap coins for all of us buying all the cheap coins atm :)
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: TeeBone on March 23, 2013, 08:57:44 AM 53...
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: wopwop on March 23, 2013, 09:00:24 AM 53... Yeah I'm buying a lot atm this is THE last chance to buy cheap coins after this race on to 100 $ then 1000 $ PER BTC!!!BUYING HARDCORE RIGHT NOW Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: dreem on March 23, 2013, 09:35:41 AM Buying 20 minutes ago near $50 was apparently a good idea, already back in the mud 60s
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: Kato on March 23, 2013, 10:08:05 AM Buying 20 minutes ago near $50 was apparently a good idea, already back in the mud 60s ...if the correction is over, that is... ;) Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: dreem on March 23, 2013, 10:53:50 AM Well, a sold 1 hour of being level is about as stable the bitcoin has been in the past week. People might be looking for the kind of stability around a month or so ago, but I would bet it fluctuates at least a little more.
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: BitSlut69 on March 23, 2013, 11:37:05 AM If you are confident this is a bubble, which it may be, then you can sell off some (not all) of your BTC, hold the fiat in your exchange account, and then buy back into BTC when the bubble has subsided. I believe this is called shorting. You take profit now, and if you're bet is right you end up with the same amount of BTC, plus more fiat to do with as you wish.
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: tellmemiau on March 23, 2013, 11:55:03 AM Do you have any information on how quickly the value of silver rose during the first 5 years after it was discovered? +1 bitcoin is way different. All comparisons are silly. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: DannyHamilton on March 23, 2013, 06:25:26 PM - snip - you can sell off some (not all) of your BTC, - snip - I believe this is called shorting. - snip - I believe this is called "selling". Unless I'm mistaken, "shorting" would involve selling bitcoins that you do not own. You borrow bitcoin from someone else, and then sell those borrowed bitcoin with the intention of buying them back later at a lower price and returning the re-purchased bitcoins to the lender. Example: Borrow 100 BTC Sell the borrowed bitcoin at $66 per BTC for a total received of $6,600 Wait for exchange rate to drop to $50 per BTC. Buy back 100 BTC for $5,000 (keeping $1,600 for yourself) Return the 100 BTC The issues you can run into with shorting are that the lender may want the BTC back before the price has dropped, or the lender may require some amount of interest rate on the loan and the interest can end up being higher than the revenue from shorting. A relevant quote from John Maynard Keynes after being wiped out in a short position in 1920: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: MIST514 on March 23, 2013, 06:29:08 PM BTC lender ? hook me up lol, mind you I got the cash to buy em......
Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: DannyHamilton on March 23, 2013, 08:01:00 PM BTC lender ? hook me up lol, mind you I got the cash to buy em...... Sure. I'll lend you some bitcoin. But first you'll have to go through a significant credit and income review (that you'll pay for). Then if you qualify, I'll determine an interest rate based on risk factors such as duration of loan, risk of default, and collateral provided. Title: Re: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble Post by: GotBitCoins on April 12, 2013, 12:41:01 PM All right - I think I have bought everything that I need at these levels.
This was probably the final flush. And now it's time for the next stage in the bubble explosing - the sucker rally that should take us back to ~150 - it's the "back to normal" stage which is intended for sucking in as many people as possible before fading back into oblivion... (btw, I was lucky, very lucky to get out at the 164 -187 levels) wooohooo.... what a ride! GotBitCoins |
