Bitcoin Forum

Hi,

Im a noob. I get like 95 mh/s hash rate and solo mining. Am I right in thinking theres a chance that I can get 25 bit coins at once for finding a special block? Thats worth like over 1k USD? How long would it take me to get it? Why do people join pools and make like a 50 cents a day?

-Rod

In a nutshell, your chances of making $1000 at a rate of $0.50/day (assuming a static BTC:USD) are "greater than" your chances of discovering a block for the same reward within the same time period.

Values of "greater than" are indirectly proportional to your hash speed.

At your rate, by the time you find a block at current difficulty levels, it could be worth only $500 or the reward could've halved by then to 12.5 BTC. In any case, if you're paying for electricity, you're losing money.

Yes!!!!!
Yes!!!!!
Statistically, assuming no other factors change, and they most certainly will, with the current factors as they are, about 7 years. But maybe within 5 seconds or maybe never ever at all.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

You have much studying ahead of you.

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From what I understand ( and this may not be correct) your chances of finding a block which is solving a complex equation is pretty low considering your hashrate.  I would say it would take you YEARS to find a block at that current hashrate.

Or you may get 'LUCKY' and find a block in one day or less.

Think of it this way, what are your chances of finding a briefcase filled with million dollars?  Pretty much nonexistent, but you never know.

Thanks for feedback. Yea the calculator says about 9 years. I should have gotten into this years ago. I will only buy one of those Asic systems if I get really lucky and find a block haha.

The ASIC miners are going to basically make other forms of mining obsolete.

Once there's a ton of those on the market, it'll increase the difficulty so much that only people who have the ASICs will be able to get a reasonable hourly rate.

Consistency and predictability. On a pool, you know you'll make whatever amount a day, every day. Mining solo, the average for your hashrate at today's difficulty is supposedly like 9 years or so, but that's just an average. You could solve a block in 10 minutes, or not at all in 30 years. It's tough to justify any sort of investment in mining tech with such unpredictability.

Once the ASICs are out, will solo mining itself be obsolete? I know BFL's mini rig can get up to 1.5 T-hash/s... Am I right in assuming that machine will be the only thing worth solo mining with, or does the increase in difficulty have no effect on solo mining?

I've ordered a jalapeno and am considering the BFL single. Would either of those yield any BTC solo mining or should I just stick to pools?

You can solo, but it'll take you several years to find a block.

And more likely you will never find one, because as time progresses it seems so does mining power.