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Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: oakpacific on March 27, 2013, 06:44:07 AM



Title: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: oakpacific on March 27, 2013, 06:44:07 AM
Could the European residents on this forum tell us the reactions from you friends/acquaintances/family members, after hearing about this?


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: BitPirate on March 27, 2013, 06:48:35 AM
You're not going to get a very good sample asking people on the Bitcoin forum!

"Europe" is also a relatively big place...


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: oakpacific on March 27, 2013, 06:52:21 AM
You're not going to get a very good sample asking people on the Bitcoin forum!

"Europe" is also a relatively big place...

Yeah, I want to know reactions from all kinds of people, e.g., how does a German think when compared to a Spanish, different people have different vested interests.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: labestiol on March 27, 2013, 06:53:49 AM
I live in France, and something you hear a lot (mainly because that's what the medias says) is "Won't happen to us. We are in France for fuck sake. We are not a tax heaven for laundering money for the russian mob".
Delusion is still working well ;)


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: sgbett on March 27, 2013, 07:28:59 AM
I am uk, so only a plastic European. I'm unconcerned on a selfish "I'm not directly affected" level. I feel sad for the people in Cyprus because I think they are being robbed. I don't feel overly surprised, I'm pretty cynical where govt and finance are concerned. I'm not full on conspiracy theorist (though its all relative) but I fully beleive there is corruption at every level that drives the craziness we see in the global economy

To this end I try and protect myself. BTC is just one way (and seems to be more viable hedge/protection if wealth each passing day)



Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: bitdragon on March 27, 2013, 07:41:50 AM
Swiss here.
The news is that the banking sector was too big for the small population...
With that logic, Switzerland is pretty doomed.

Newspaper yesterday highlighted an increase of 1K Swiss franc note withdrawn as safekeeping over the last months.

This Cypriot deal is made by Central Europeans and not Cyprus and goes to show the problem is here and not there.

I feel and know the EU, Euro is on it's way out. The dawn is rising and we need to get started and continue building our economy around that fact.

Blessings to Cyprus


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: caveden on March 27, 2013, 07:51:46 AM
I live in France, and something you hear a lot (mainly because that's what the medias says) is "Won't happen to us. We are in France for fuck sake. We are not a tax heaven for laundering money for the russian mob".
Delusion is still working well ;)

Precisely!
I also live in France and that's the feeling I get. Many colleagues of mine (computer people, you know, those who live in the Internetz...) weren't even aware of what's going on. I'm the one who brings the subject up most frequently. People here don't seem to be worried at all.
It seems many French citizens believe that France is somehow immune to all these Euro-zone turmoils ("Quand même, on est en France!"). I think they should review their beliefs for their own sake...


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: bitdragon on March 27, 2013, 07:55:37 AM
here is what I think :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-08/guest-post-icelandic-success-story


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: caveden on March 27, 2013, 07:56:47 AM
Newspaper yesterday highlighted an increase of 1K Swiss franc note withdrawn as safekeeping over the last months.

Are you sure you meant 1K? That should be a rounding error...


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: haos on March 27, 2013, 08:56:40 AM
Poland here.

"Haha, we are soo poor, there is nothing to take from here. We are safe in our Green Island as our beloved PM likes to say!
The rich ones are not keeping their money here anyway"

PS
Green Island for Poland comes from 2009 when all EU countries GDP change was negative, except Poland
They used to show on TV a map of Europe with GDP % change for all countries and the negative was showed in red and positive in green.
They did show it often and comment it with pride that we are a Green Island in EU.
But there was one more green country on this map back then - Greece :D


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: bitdragon on March 27, 2013, 09:20:34 AM
Newspaper yesterday highlighted an increase of 1K Swiss franc note withdrawn as safekeeping over the last months.

Are you sure you meant 1K? That should be a rounding error...

I am very sure indeed. What kind of rounding error is possible anyway?

The old one no longer in circulation with a nice ant_

http://www.edimuster.ch/abstinenz/forelimages/1000Ameise.jpg


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: caveden on March 27, 2013, 09:36:09 AM
Newspaper yesterday highlighted an increase of 1K Swiss franc note withdrawn as safekeeping over the last months.

Are you sure you meant 1K? That should be a rounding error...

I am very sure indeed. What kind of rounding error is possible anyway?

Oh sorry, I misread what you wrote. You were talking about an increase in circulation of a particular kind of bill. I thought you were referring to an amount.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: desired_username on March 27, 2013, 09:38:35 AM
As an eastern European, firstly let's paint a picture of my country:

- Record unemployment levels and rising

- Corruption issues

- Stealing on every level - including stealing of EU money big time

- Falling standard of services

- Degradation of infrastructure

- Record level of business closure

- Property market depression

- Record level of taxation

The bad thing is that people here are lost confidence in *everything* - I see bitcoin as a viable route to make things better. Hope many people will make use of it.

Getting rid of the tyranny will be hard though, it's a mafia state basically (which of the countries are not though?)

We need transparency on the highest level, without that it's all doomed.

 


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: TomRado on March 27, 2013, 10:02:09 AM
German here.

Quite a few people around me see this as a forced market correction in the banking sector. Cyprus had some business there that other countries such as Luxembourg or the UK with London feel they should have, as they were in charge of it in the past. Now it's coming back. It was decided that Cyprus doesn't belong to the too big to fail and it was dropped, in order to bring financial business back to where the more powerful european leaders believe it belongs.

Think of the fact that former Euro Group President Juncker, also MP of Luxembourg, a state that lives of its financial sector is very close to the center of power. Why would they let Cyprus have this piece of the cake? Cyprus is traditionally a poor country and that's what it's going to be again. The Status quo was defended.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: Ekaros on March 27, 2013, 10:28:28 AM
Finland.

Pretty much against paying other peoples failings, that is countries and banks. Cyprus is a step to better direction, but too late.

Personally, we should have let the system crash and burn and start fresh...


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: cypherdoc on March 27, 2013, 11:13:16 AM
Excellent thread, Oak.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: rebuilder on March 27, 2013, 11:41:39 AM
North Europe. People I've talked with seem pretty indignant that people can just have their savings shaved like that, but personally not concerned. Then again, most of my friends live pretty hand-to-mouth and don't have that much in the bank to lose in the first place.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: rpietila on March 27, 2013, 11:52:24 AM
Finland, didn't talk to many so can't really say for the others. I believe most people would rather side with the taxpayers and think that it is the better, the less we have to pay.

I feel that this is a warning and took physical delivery of all my Euro balances yesterday. Now I've posted a sign (http://hopea.fi/) if there is anyone willing to convert them to bitcoins. I know there are bitcoin-wealthy people in Finland..


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: Sword Smith on March 27, 2013, 11:57:14 AM
I live in Denmark and the general population does not worry about bank deposit confiscations. Danes do not see it as a threat and the MSM is not chanting "it cannot happen here" which tells me that we are further away from this happening than, e.g., France. Also, it would be a bit easier to devalue the currency here, which is an alternative way of solving the problem of insolvency than it would be in France or any eurozone country.

We luckily do not have the euro but our currency is tied to the euro via ERM II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism)) and luckily not ERM III which is full euro membership. In 2000 we voted on whether Denmark should become a member of the eurozone, all mainstream politicians recommended a "yes" but the result was 47 % in favor and 53 percent opposed.

The fact that we do not have the euro means that we are not contributing to the bailout packages via ESM or EFSF but only through the IMF through which the US is also contributing to the bailout of PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy (no official bailout yet, only monetization of gov. debt by the ECB), Greece and Spain (bank sector bailed out through some EU fund - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Spanish_financial_crisis#The_Bailout_of_Spain (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Spanish_financial_crisis#The_Bailout_of_Spain))).

In this way, the Danish gov. and thus the taxpayers have saved DKK 338bn (USD 60bn) (about 20 % of GDP) in guarantees by not being a eurozone country. But we are still affected by the eurozone crisis since the crisis pushes the euro down and thus also the kroner which makes imported goods and dollar denominated goods more expensive - but most people obviously do not see this causality - that Greek spending leads to more expensive gasoline.

In Denmark, we have very high taxes (57 % income for top earners, 100 % on gasoline, 25 % VAT, 180 % + VAT on cars(!!)) but our government balance is fairly sane with a deficit on "only" 4 % of GDP. And both sides of the political aisle seem to recognize that some kind of reforms are necessary and the pension age have been reformed and other welfare reforms are also under way. Furthermore, the corporate tax level has fallen from ~45 % in the '80s to 22 % today and they have just been lowered from 25 % to 22 % by the current leftwing government. There seems to be practically no difference between the economic policies of the former centre-right gov. and the current centre-left. Both are slowly (too slowly) reforming the welfare state and seeking to find the maximum on the Laffer curve. Which is what all other businesses do as well so I do not blame them too much.

In Denmark, monetary policy is not really discussed. As mentioned, we had the eurozone vote in 2000 but obviously the pro euro people have shut up. No sane Dane wishes to adopt the euro today - it is not going to happen, thank God. Also, the monetary sides of the financial crisis (2008-today) is not discussed in MSM.

We do have a libertarian community just like you do in the US. In this community there are some people who understand the potential of Bitcoins and the dangers of government-backed fractional reserve banking and fiat currencies but we are an extremely small minority and our ideas are in no way heard in MSM - whatsoever. Only on a couple of online independent newspapers and blogs and one think tank. There is no Ron Paul movement here but I feel like we have some momentum nonetheless.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: JimiQ84 on March 27, 2013, 12:07:03 PM
I am Slovak living in Czech Republic. I see the Cyprus "situation" as a really bad precedent. Now it could happen anywhere in eurozone.

Like Denmark, CzechRep is not part of Eurozone, so I don't contribute to saving of PIIGS directly.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: klee on March 27, 2013, 12:12:38 PM
How de we feel? Check bitcoin-24 price: 75!!!!!!

That means the dollar should be at least +10 ...


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: Sword Smith on March 27, 2013, 12:31:40 PM
Before one starts to blame the PIIGS too much, one should know that the bailout packages paid by Northern countries to the PIIGS mainly work as a kind of money laundering for Northern banks. If a German bank owns Greek gov. bonds then the bank may crash if these bonds default. The solution is to bailout Greece since this will keep the German banks afloat.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: minimalB on March 27, 2013, 12:40:13 PM
It's funny, but i don't get it. To most people i talk here in eastern Europe, they are aware of situation (because of media, etc) but somehow think that it's not gonna affect their country in particular. I mean, who are they kidding?

Mass media and entertainment has really made people numb to pretty much anything.

Personally, i am surprised that the whole thing did not collapse years ago, so, still waiting...


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: seldon on March 27, 2013, 12:54:53 PM
Same here in germany - people watch the Cyprus/Greece situation with interest (and sometimes a bit smug) but cannot relate this to their own situation.

IMHO people used to handle larger amounts of money might have a more realistic view on this


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: cedivad on March 27, 2013, 01:14:10 PM
Italy - we know for sure that something similar is going to happen soon here too, our private capital is our greatest wealth.
However, bitcoin with its volatitly is not a valid alternative. A swiss account could be.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: bracek on March 27, 2013, 01:38:58 PM
Croatia (soon to enter EU):

I get a feeling that people are boiling inside, but cant articulate what is actually bothering them.
when waiting in hospital halls, or in bank, I sometimes comment something out loud, with irony,
those who respond seem to get it, feel that everything is wrong, politics, religion, economy, financial inequality, there is simply no vision for future,
like we are all waiting for something to happen...

cars and real estate sales are dropping like a rock, but prices of those items are not

food cost, utility bills and gas ever slowly rising

when I start to explain, or point to the roots of problems, nobody wants to listen,
like some kind of paranoia of being paranoid :)

fear for deposits in banks is low, or at least very well hidden, or people have nothing to fear for

we were excessively bombarded with new pope news, (compared to neighbor states),
every now and then, we get some emotional news blast to keep us all together in these hard times and all that sht...

a few smaller banks dropped dead, but most of money was not stolen, as far as I heard ...


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: tralala on March 27, 2013, 01:51:40 PM
I'm form Germany.
I think this cyprus discussion is really overblown. The only reasons it's getting media attention is because Cyprus is part of the Euro.
I think there are many parallels to Iceland which was already mentioned in this thread and finally after some bickering it'll be solved the same way: let the banks go bankrupt and let the greedy investors pay.
In no way does this Cyprus thing show the weakness of the Euro or other fiat currencies it just shows that unsustainable business will fail eventually.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: tralala on March 27, 2013, 03:06:45 PM
Personally, i am surprised that the whole thing did not collapse years ago, so, still waiting...

I think you can wait a long time. The Euro and other fiat currencies are not dead and won't collapse soon.


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: nwbitcoin on March 27, 2013, 03:29:31 PM
UK viewpoint

Cyprus people are being screwed by their government, but its not more than proof that we were right never to get involved with the Euro.

However, it has made people aware of how powerful the EU really is. 

The problem for the UK is that it has a number of military bases on Cyprus, as well as a big expat community, so there are a number of stories in the press from real people who are being effected.  One story involved a plane being sent from the UK to the military with a £1 million in cash on it to keep everyone in cash while the banks decided what they were doing.

The other side is that now that the Euro has been shown to not be strong enough to be able to deal with the differences of Europe, from the rich north, to the corrupt east and poor south (there is a generality to annoy a few people! ;)) it seems obvious that the EU is going to have to create a Eurolite to ensure that the Euro itself doesn't get killed, as it should.

Luckily, the UK has its Pound sterling, and if the Euro is split into a north and south Euro currency with different valuations, then the pound will become more desirable again, making it easier for the London to grab the financial centre of Europe tag unchallenged!

Of course, nobody is talking about bitcoins.  This is purely about central banks because they know what they are doing! ;)


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: Chalkbot on March 27, 2013, 04:12:24 PM
I found this thread very enlightening. Thanks to everyone who posted in here!


Title: Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus?
Post by: sgbett on March 27, 2013, 07:56:16 PM
UK viewpoint

Cyprus people are being screwed by their government, but its not more than proof that we were right never to get involved with the Euro.

However, it has made people aware of how powerful the EU really is. 

The problem for the UK is that it has a number of military bases on Cyprus, as well as a big expat community, so there are a number of stories in the press from real people who are being effected.  One story involved a plane being sent from the UK to the military with a £1 million in cash on it to keep everyone in cash while the banks decided what they were doing.

The other side is that now that the Euro has been shown to not be strong enough to be able to deal with the differences of Europe, from the rich north, to the corrupt east and poor south (there is a generality to annoy a few people! ;)) it seems obvious that the EU is going to have to create a Eurolite to ensure that the Euro itself doesn't get killed, as it should.

Luckily, the UK has its Pound sterling, and if the Euro is split into a north and south Euro currency with different valuations, then the pound will become more desirable again, making it easier for the London to grab the financial centre of Europe tag unchallenged!

Of course, nobody is talking about bitcoins.  This is purely about central banks because they know what they are doing! ;)


I'm concerned that, as seems to be the pattern in other countries, there is a bit too much confidence in our own economic situation and currency. National debt is around 70% GDP and we are still running a deficit despite austerity. Economic growth is flat. The money markets suggest that interest rates aren't going to be rising now until late 2018 at the earliest. (great for me my mortgage reverts to VAR of 0.95% above base rate in 5 months time...) whilst 'real' inflation continues to bite, despite what government reported rate might otherwise suggest.

Compared to US we aren't doing too badly (debt at >100% GDP deficit of ~8%). Compared to eurozone we are about middle of road. So relatively speaking UK is OK, but that's realtive to a really poor worldwide situation!

My biggest surprise is the seemingly widespread belief that 'our govt wouldn't do that to us'. Call me a cynic, but I would not rely on that one jot!

I agree, let the banks fail, let the banksters take the fall.