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Title: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 07:56:42 AM Made me chuckle...
https://imageshack.us/a/img824/6082/d5085aaafd0f4a5d9604e7f.png https://i.imgur.com/2N7ukVz.png ======================= Relevant: date of previous peak https://imageshack.us/a/img201/4728/992299db35f64d57a6fa18e.png * dodges tomato, tap dances off stage * Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: BitPirate on March 27, 2013, 08:06:33 AM I think you are confusing cause and effect!
Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 08:09:23 AM Thread was in jest, but if by cause and effect you mean media exposure causing general-population curiosity causing community hype causing speculative valuations that eventually returned to reality...then I guess, maybe I'm confusing it?
Plus the Google forecast was enough to make this worth posting in the speculation thread, since their algorithm is probably a more accurate predictor of interest than this community's most advanced sociologist/economist. Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: samson on March 27, 2013, 08:14:03 AM Thread was in jest, but if by cause and effect you mean media exposure causing general-population curiosity causing community hype causing speculative valuations that eventually returned to reality...then I guess, maybe I'm confusing it? Plus the Google forecast was enough to make this worth posting in the speculation thread, since their algorithm is probably a more accurate predictor of interest than this community's most advanced sociologist/economist. It's been like this for weeks now. Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 08:19:39 AM I believe the speculative move was from a valuation around $40-$50, not $15. So in my opinion, no it hasn't been for weeks.
Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: samson on March 27, 2013, 08:22:59 AM I believe the speculative move was from a valuation around $40-$50, not $15. So in my opinion, no it hasn't been for weeks. Well when I checked it a few weeks ago the graph looked very similar to how it looks today. It's just that the peak which is happening right now wasn't as high, then it returned to the mean. From memory the peak 2-3 weeks ago was about half as high then as it is now. Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Herodes on March 27, 2013, 08:25:21 AM Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Sword Smith on March 27, 2013, 09:02:41 AM Thread was in jest, but if by cause and effect you mean media exposure causing general-population curiosity causing community hype causing speculative valuations that eventually returned to reality...then I guess, maybe I'm confusing it? I believe you are confusing cause and effect. The rising interest in Bitcoins is mainly due to the rising prices.Plus the Google forecast was enough to make this worth posting in the speculation thread, since their algorithm is probably a more accurate predictor of interest than this community's most advanced sociologist/economist. Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Adrian-x on March 27, 2013, 03:56:35 PM Remember the rising interest in early 2011 was also due to rising prices ($1 parity)
Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 03:59:29 PM Is there any evidence to suggest your theory of cause and effect? My theory is that some mainstream news hits first, and that induces new speculative traders, not the other way around. In my opinion, speculation started mostly when Romney's tax returns were being held for ransom. This built some speculative traders, which drove up the valuation, which induced reports on "the resurgence of bitcoin" which fed even more speculation, like a vicious cycle. In my opinion, this will culminate with a confidence crushing crash, and that's unfortunate, because IMHO, it's due to greed not fundamentals.
Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Picklee on March 27, 2013, 04:17:05 PM their algorithm is probably a more accurate predictor of interest than this community's most advanced sociologist/economist. lol Google's 'forecast' looks only like a weighted mean. And we must also understand that the further out the prediction goes, the higher the uncertainty becomes. Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 04:17:52 PM And how would that change my statement?
Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Picklee on March 27, 2013, 04:22:11 PM And how would that change my statement? Did I say that it would? No need to get personal, it's just bit coin. :) Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 04:22:57 PM Wth? I got personal? Everyone's so touchy today, yikes!
Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Picklee on March 27, 2013, 04:27:08 PM In my opinion, this will culminate with a confidence crushing crash, and that's unfortunate, because IMHO, it's due to greed not fundamentals. I would say the market is in for some correction, but I don't think it's due to greed. The markets are over-bought and some big sellers will cash out as the price rises. Title: Re: Google Trends Forecast Post by: Sword Smith on March 27, 2013, 04:40:22 PM Is there any evidence to suggest your theory of cause and effect? My theory is that some mainstream news hits first, and that induces new speculative traders, not the other way around. In my opinion, speculation started mostly when Romney's tax returns were being held for ransom. This built some speculative traders, which drove up the valuation, which induced reports on "the resurgence of bitcoin" which fed even more speculation, like a vicious cycle. In my opinion, this will culminate with a confidence crushing crash, and that's unfortunate, because IMHO, it's due to greed not fundamentals. The price of a currency is calculated as follows:val=Y/(V*M) V~1/year and M~10^7. It all depends on what Y is and could become. It's that simple. Instead of guessing on booms and busts shooting from the hip, you should make a qualified guess on what Y could become. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange) |
