Bitcoin Forum

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/20130327-2-month-log-chart.png?w=650

...  it looks like we’ll probably meet resistance at the top of the channel.

If the price drops we may find support at $75 ish where the middle of the channel is or somewhere just above $60 if we fall to the bottom of the channel. Perhaps we’ll just flatten out at $90 for a few days.

Or... we break out ;D

it is just a line....Bitcoin > trend line on a graph.

New daily high....

Weren't we saying the same thing when it was in the high 60's-low 70's?

I'm still quite bullish at least for the next two weeks.Due to Coinlabs,Cyprus banks re-opening and EU-wide worries concerning bank account seizures of some sort and the fact Bitcoin has been getting some press.As we speak just hit a new 89.50 high on the gox,lol.

I like your thinking!!

I'm partial to this type of exponential channel analysis.

What I take from this is not to be surprised if we pull back for a while, especially if there is no new news. This is somewhat counteracted by the tremendous bid-ask spread on MtGox, though. All in all, anything could happen, but dropping below the bottom support channel - unless due to bad news - seems least likely just because of all the people nervously standing on the sidelines, biding their time for a chance to buy just a bit lower, wondering when the hell it's going to dip.

My best guess is that we'll slosh around near the top of the channel and perhaps break out, especially if there's good news. (However, if we do break out we may be in for a rapid reversion to inside the channel shortly after, barring a sustained stream of positive news.)

So, if I go to buy a good quantity of bitcoins right now, is there going to be, like, a message that pops up that says, "This order will break the trend line on some charts, please reduce your order or sell all your coins?"

Wouldnt that be nice :)

It already broke 10500 trends, including log scale ones.

It's over 9000   :o

Unbelievable! It's breaking out to the upside  :o

$95 on Mt Gox now, need to stop people buying they're spoiling my lovely trend lines

Cyprus banks open in 1 hour

Getting money to the exchanges will take a while

my feeling is, that it breaks out a bit, and then it retraces a bit more than the breakout. then it'll get interesting.

hurr durr resistance approaching

oh wait

We'll see it at $100.

You saw those lines on the chart.  THE LINES!!!!!

I've heard rumour that the Laika bank failed to open due to 'technical difficulties'

 8)

This is the rapid reversion to the channel I reckon. Kind of kicking myself I didn't sell a few when I saw the resistance approaching on my chart. Overbought at the top of the channel = good time to sell a few.

Lets see if it gets as low as $60 ..

It could touch down to 50, which is where the exponential support line is. Par for the course.

Actually, this (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.msg1695430#msg1695430).

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/20130328-1-month-log-chart.png

Bounce off the mid trendline. Which is one of the possibilities I described I might add.

 8)

You called this pretty well from the start. Just one thing: why aren't you using a log chart? Oh nevermind, you are.

You know what the beauty of this analysis is? Even though MtGox arguably precipitated this selloff, which was unpredictable, it really doesn't matter what triggered it. All that matters is once it broke out of the channel it was "cruisin' for a bruisin'" and any old thing would have soon smacked it back into line, but plenty of bulls stood ready to buy,  and in greater and greater quantities as it fell into the heart of the channel again.

Now we're back to a plain old vanilla exponential meteoric rise (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143237.0). Oh drat, we may have to wait another two months to hit $200, and until July to hit $400. It's tough being a Bitcoin bull ;D

Credit where credit is due, you got this one.

+respect

LOL.. bubble burst.

nice call

Nice call, but it looks like the event was caused by an attempted "attack" selloff combined with a DDoS of the exchanges -- they may have timed it well as we were nearing the top of the "channel"... but ultimately it was not something that was or could have been predicted by charts.

Perhaps but its amazing how often these events fit within the larger trends though.

Thanks for the nice call comments  :)

It's not a coincidence, really. Had Bitcoin been oversold when the Gox DDoS happened, it would have fallen way less. Conversely, when it breaks out above exponential, any minor issue becomes an excuse for a knife-down. If it weren't Gox it would've just been some other minor thing.

Basically riding high (on or above the channel) is cruising for a bruising, and riding low is coiling the spring to be set off by any old good-news excuse.

 Think you're right a coiled or stretched spring is a good analogy, the pressure is there to move up or down, all thats needed is the spark to provoke it.

Love your username btw! hehe

It's my real name ;)