Bitcoin Forum

This time it's different (http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-smarter-mutual-fund-investor/2012/08/20/4-signs-an-investment-might-be-in-a-bubble)

This time it's different (http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-smarter-mutual-fund-investor/2012/08/20/4-signs-an-investment-might-be-in-a-bubble)

I think people make the mistake of comparing this to a stock (bubble).   Stocks cannot really justify massive moves because moves in a stock should reflect only the new NPV of the future ebitda given that days new announcements.   Currencies trade more in these steps.   Look at EU to USD or the commodity currencies against the USD.   News was known for a long time but the moves are more sudden.    But that does not even apply because govt can control (and actively control the supply of their currencies).   So, then you look at gold (has more of a finite supply) but has a MASSIVE float.   look at the gold chart from 250 to 1800 and then think about what a restricted float of gold would have done to that chart.    

Bitcoins largest problem is that you cannot use it enough places in exchange for goods AND it is TOO HARD for the common man to transact in.   Conquering these two problems so be the focus of everyone serious about bitcoin.    If those hurdles were gone, simple demand would have pushed BTC over 1000 by now.

This time it's different (http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-smarter-mutual-fund-investor/2012/08/20/4-signs-an-investment-might-be-in-a-bubble)

This time it's different (http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-smarter-mutual-fund-investor/2012/08/20/4-signs-an-investment-might-be-in-a-bubble)

Lolololol.  So this has become the best argument?  Not discussing the fundamentals or potential of bitcoins.  Not discussing new user base and new companies that are using bitcoin.  Bitcoins do not equal stocks or mutual funds. Bitcoins do not equal beanie babies.  Get over it.

-highly divisible true, but so is everything else, what's the advantage?
-finite true, but so are a lot of commodities, what's the advantage?
-recognizable false
-impossible to counterfeit true, but so are a lot of commodities, what's the advantage?
-fungible true, but what currency isn't?
-easily transferable (send and receive) false
-easily and inexpensively secured and stored debatable
-easily accessible, 24/7 (requires internet) once you have it, perhaps, and like you said -- requires internet
-can not be seized false
-pseudonymous true
-worldwide doesn't equate worldwide legitimacy and acceptance
-low fees (if any at all) true
-distributed and decentralized (no central control, I don't need to ask permission to send coins, no central point of failure) false, central point of failure is internet
-irreversible (this is a pro for responsible users) true, but so is cash and a lot of other commodities, what's the advantage?
-voluntary (no one is forcing me to use Bitcoin, for anything, including payment of debt) meaningless
-apolitical (x country's choices won't affect Bitcoin except through free market forces) true, but so are a lot of commodities, what's the advantage?

I can see from your modifications that there is probably no point in talking to you.

-recognizable (if the network accepts the transaction, it's a bitcoin, if it doesn't, it not) true, but how is this different than swiping a $20 with iodine?
-easily transferable (copypasta, click send -> send, provide address -> receive, it doesn't get much easier) I can do that with Paypal right now, just sayin'
-easily and inexpensively secured and stored (free software like armory on a $50 used laptop, I wish I could store and secure my gold so easily) and the backup devices to make copies, don't forget
-can not be seized (go for it, seize my bitcoins, it will be impossible without my permission, tell me one other form of money that works that way) pretty sure during seizure, no one is given permission. so this is just wtf
-distributed and decentralized (Bitcoin won't fail without the internet, it will just freeze until we rebuild the internet, besides if the worldwide internet goes down, you have more to worry about than money) it will fail, because it would cease to exist
-voluntary (might be meaningless to you, but not to me, I wouldn't hold bitcoins if it was forced) what isn't voluntary?

For every time you ask, "what's the advantage", I'd say that property in combination with the rest. Name something else which combines all these properties into one asset.
Practically every advantage you've stated for bitcoin is shared with another commodity or currency. You're just not willing to think about it.

As far as what's commanding this move, well discovery of course. Go ask 50 people on the street if they've ever heard of Bitcoin, when 95% have answered yes, then we can start looking for it's true valuation. You think 95% of 50 random individuals will say they know what Bitcoin is...?

You're right, those are some of the fundamentals. And a majority haven't changed one iota since inception, so what's commanding this move?

I can see from your modifications that there is probably no point in talking to you.

-recognizable (if the network accepts the transaction, it's a bitcoin, if it doesn't, it not)
-easily transferable (copypasta, click send -> send, provide address -> receive, it doesn't get much easier)
-easily and inexpensively secured and stored (free software like armory on a $50 used laptop, I wish I could store and secure my gold so easily)
-can not be seized (go for it, seize my bitcoins, it will be impossible without my permission, tell me one other form of money that works that way)
-distributed and decentralized (Bitcoin won't fail without the internet, it will just freeze until we rebuild the internet, besides if the worldwide internet goes down, you have more to worry about than money)
-voluntary (might be meaningless to you, but not to me, I wouldn't hold bitcoins if it was forced)

For every time you ask, "what's the advantage", I'd say that property in combination with the rest. Name something else which combines all these properties into one asset.

As far as what's commanding this move, well discovery of course. Go ask 50 people on the street if they've ever heard of Bitcoin, when 95% have answered yes, then we can start looking for it's true valuation.

Buyers. Speculators

-(like a $5 SD card?) ok, I'll cede this point
(come on... everything in the physical world can be seized while you aren't even there, good luck seizing the private keys in my encrypted wallets) I can't seize your devices while you're not there?
(no, it won't cease to exist, the block chain doesn't vanish when you turn off your comtpuer. do you understand how this thing works?) if you can't use it, how is it existing? it can come BACK into existence, but my point was that it can fail. not usable in 100% of circumstances means there is failure.
(acceptance of fiat for payment of debt in countries with legal tender laws) i'm not sure how this doesn't apply to everything else? gold isn't accepted as legal tender in many countries either.

Again, name a currency with ALL OF THOSE PROPERTIES COMBINED. I realize some currencies have some of the properties, that's why they are currencies! Sheesh...

Gold. Name a commodity or currency that doesn't? Then, consider the trade offs with other fundamentals that are lacking in bitcoin, but highly abundant in other commodities or currencies. Like, for instance, legitimacy.

Yes I know but what in particular ;\

Yes I know but what in particular ;\

-can not be seized (go for it, seize my bitcoins, it will be impossible without my permission, tell me one other form of money that works that way) pretty sure during seizure, no one is given permission. so this is just wtf

Its certainly interesting to read all the analysis and speculation about the future of bitcoin.    "We had a bubble before" ... "Its following the trend of gold" ... "It's all speculation and hype" ... "Its a pyramid/ponzi scheme"...  "Look at the trends... here is a bear trap/bull run/cow patties"

The thing I keep coming back to is that nobody has really seen anything like this before.  It is the creation of a brand new currency based on a new paradigm.  No more reliance on central banks or government... peer-to-peer... technologically sound.  How can you really relate it to anything we have seen before?

The closest thing I can see regarding its future potential, and it was referenced in a comment I saw this morning, that the talk is not unlike people talking about personal computers in the 80s, or the Internet or WWW in the 90s.  And look where they are now.  This is the equivalent in currency.  And if that is the case, I feel more strongly about its future than ever.

I think we are witnessing history in the making... and taking part!

-highly divisible
-finite
-recognizable
-impossible to counterfeit
-fungible
-easily transferable (send and receive)
-easily and inexpensively secured and stored
-easily accessible, 24/7 (requires internet)
-can not be seized
-pseudonymous
-worldwide
-low fees (if any at all)
-distributed and decentralized (no central control, I don't need to ask permission to send coins, no central point of failure)
-irreversible (this is a pro for responsible users)
-voluntary (no one is forcing me to use Bitcoin, for anything, including payment of debt)
-apolitical (x country's choices won't affect Bitcoin except through free market forces)

There are your fundamentals. Now decide how valuable something like that might be to people in today's world. Some might think we are overbought, I'm still waiting for the rest of the world to catch up.