Title: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Just-Dice / Satoshidice rounds for free Post by: GCInc. on March 29, 2013, 04:45:23 PM We have released a test version of BotDice. (http://botdice.com)
UPDATE 2013-07-18: Just-Dice.com simulation added! Simulate thousands of Just-Dice / Satoshidice rounds with automatic progression and see how much you would win or lose with your betting strategy. From the simple options menu you can customize your bet progression extensively. Simulation lengths available are 100 or 1000 bets, just once or 100 sessions in a row. Current options include the following: Max rounds to play Initial bankroll (cash) Target profit % Game type Payout multiplier on win Initial bet amount Adjust bet after win Adjust bet after loss Reset to initial bet after wins in a row Reset to initial bet after losses in a row Maximum single bet Single session (show all bets) or big data (100 sessions just results) Try it out and see the statistical value of your strategy before risking your monies and wasting time on the Just-Dice / Satoshidice site in an attempt to find out the best strategy! It's also eye opening to notice how large effect the nasty transaction fees or their absence have on your final profit. Special thanks to mem for the inspiration arising from his memtingale simulator (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80361.0) giving the igniting spark for this project! Project will be updated more or less regularly. It's still very early alpha. Please report any errors or requests to this thread. Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: mc_lovin on March 29, 2013, 07:51:17 PM Fantastic!
But when I change the game type, the multipliers don't change? Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on March 29, 2013, 07:53:05 PM But when I change the game type, the multipliers don't change? Right, that's unfortunately still work in progress.. due to be updated when I can find 30 minutes extra for the frustrating stint :)Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on March 29, 2013, 09:43:02 PM Cool idea but I'm pretty sure the bets are not working correctly or I'm not understanding how to input correctly.
ex. I do a run bet 1 loss bet .01 bet 2 win bet .01 Maybe it's just me but the second bet should have been at least .02. It's like the bets for win/loss is placed after the win/loss is determined, because I then will have a string of losses where my bet increases, or same on wins. added I'm pretty sure that instead of resets based on number of bets it needs to be conditional on win after loss. Then max increase amount is based on balance of bank or amount of bank at risk for the game. The increase during wins is a nice feature, but at times when there is a loss the bet decreases on the first loss??? added bet progression issue. # lucky number bet win Profit 0 21280 0.010 0.0190700 0.0090700 1 47454 0.020 -0.0204900 -0.0114200 2 63734 0.040 -0.0404800 -0.0519000 3 62849 0.060 -0.0604700 -0.1123700 4 19732 0.080 0.1560600 -0.0363100 5 21103 0.090 0.1756300 0.0493200 6 00138 0.100 0.1952000 0.1445200 7 48626 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1340250 8 32777 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1235300 9 44185 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1130350 10 64938 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1025400 11 57191 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0920450 12 55645 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0815500 13 57211 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0710550 14 18680 0.010 0.0190700 0.0801250 15 47337 0.020 -0.0204900 0.0596350 16 44899 0.040 -0.0404800 0.0191550 17 52247 0.060 -0.0604700 -0.0413150 18 60597 0.080 -0.0804600 -0.1217750 19 12904 0.100 0.1952000 -0.0265750 20 11133 0.110 0.2147700 0.0781950 21 19271 0.120 0.2343400 0.1925350 22 36121 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1820400 23 34679 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1715450 24 48329 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1610500 Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on March 29, 2013, 10:00:03 PM Maybe it's just me but the second bet should have been at least .02. On what progression plan? Please detail the settings you use for us to be able to spot the errors. There may be issues at this stage.Quote The increase during wins is a nice feature, but at times when there is a loss the bet decreases on the first loss??? Yes, if you go with the default settings the bet is decreased after a loss occurs (-0.01).Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on March 29, 2013, 10:07:41 PM Greatness you used 65536 numbers for the random number. I was going to add that to mem's.
It seems like the variable(s) for the bets is getting overwritten/reset in a conditional in the loop. 21:47:00 Max rounds to play: 100 Initial bankroll (cash): 10 Target cash: cash +50% Game type: 32768 Win multiplier: 1.957 Start bet: 0.01 Adjustment after win: 0.0 Adjustment after loss: 0.022 # lucky number bet win Profit 0 64906 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0104950 1 59444 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0209900 2 8514 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0119200 3 5710 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0028500 4 65254 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0133450 5 50497 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0238400 6 23879 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0147700 7 8256 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0057000 8 21565 0.010 0.0190700 0.0033700 9 12388 0.010 0.0190700 0.0124400 10 35310 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0019450 11 43254 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0085500 12 57363 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0190450 13 43450 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0295400 14 15149 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0204700 15 64072 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0309650 16 43447 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0414600 17 34175 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0519550 18 51739 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0624500 -------------------------------------- 21:49:03 Max rounds to play: 100 Initial bankroll (cash): 10 Target cash: cash +50% Game type: 32768 Win multiplier: 1.957 Start bet: 0.01 Adjustment after win: 0.006 Adjustment after loss: 0.028 # lucky number bet win Profit 0 31475 0.010 0.0190700 0.0090700 1 37085 0.016 -0.0164920 -0.0074220 2 26712 0.044 0.0856080 0.0341860 3 48105 0.050 -0.0504750 -0.0162890 4 52380 0.078 -0.0784610 -0.0947500 5 2522 0.106 0.2069420 0.0061920 6 58901 0.112 -0.1124440 -0.1062520 7 9724 0.140 0.2734800 0.0272280 8 9565 0.146 0.2852220 0.1664500 9 49525 0.152 -0.1524240 0.0140260 10 60013 0.180 -0.1804100 -0.1663840 11 57090 0.208 -0.2083960 -0.3747800 12 57804 0.236 -0.2363820 -0.6111620 13 46878 0.264 -0.2643680 -0.8755300 14 56916 0.292 -0.2923540 -1.1678840 15 28316 0.320 0.6257400 -0.8621440 16 24838 0.326 0.6374820 -0.5506620 17 30130 0.332 0.6492240 -0.2334380 18 4186 0.338 0.6609660 0.0895280 19 2321 0.344 0.6727080 0.4182360 20 49428 0.350 -0.3503250 0.0679110 21 38101 0.378 -0.3783110 -0.3104000 Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on March 29, 2013, 10:15:29 PM I am unable to reproduce the first series given your settings. Are you sure you didn't use max bet 0.01 or such (not every setting is displayed in the result page)?
Could you point out the error in the second sequence you quoted? Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on March 29, 2013, 10:28:41 PM I am unable to reproduce the first series given your settings. Are you sure you didn't use max bet 0.01 or such (not every setting is displayed in the result page)? Could you point out the error in the second sequence you quoted? I change the loss setting to positive. Neg/subtracting from the previous bet after a loss is not how I play the system. I've never seen that system before. Seems to me subtracting causes you to put funds at risk with the goal of getting a smaller return so then when a win is reached the payoff does not cover the total of all the previous losses. What is the purpose of subtracting after a loss? example. (I just picked numbers to increase that were about 2.5x+ greater than the previous loss. I add .006 on wins in this example for no reason.) bet amt w/l 1 .01 w 2 .016 w 3 .022 l 4 .05 l 5 .13 l 6 .3 l 7 .8 w 8 .01 w 9 .016 l 10 .04 w 11 .01 w etc... Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on March 29, 2013, 10:37:31 PM What is the purpose of subtracting after a loss? Anything. The negative figure in the default setup is there to have readily an example of substraction.Personally I have found the reverse progression work nicely on some game types and settings, because it catches winning streaks and decreases losses on losing streaks. Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on March 29, 2013, 11:26:35 PM What is the purpose of subtracting after a loss? Anything. The negative figure in the default setup is there to have readily an example of substraction.Personally I have found the reverse progression work nicely on some game types and settings, because it catches winning streaks and decreases losses on losing streaks. I see. But you can't predict wins or losses. Wins are safe zones. With memtingale a loss means the next bet is 2.n times greater than the first lost bet. This is to recoup more than the first loss times the win multiplier if you assume the loss was a win. Here's the output sample from Not@Las' pure martingale bot (copied from here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80245.0) The bets are increased 2x during a losing round then reset to the original 0.01 bet after the first win after a loss. memtingale's system is Martingale but instead of a 2x multiplier you use a 2.n x multiplier to increase payout for a win. Mem's sim follows the same rules as the bot. Code: Game #1 Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on March 30, 2013, 05:22:03 AM I know how Martingale progression works. I do not find it superior to progression systems with static increase and decrease. Currently Botdice allows much wider customization of bets than doubling up on loss. Buy don't worry, the basic progression scheme of multiplying your previous bet will be added soon as well, so you can compare yourself how massive losses you'll get on average of 100.000 bets or even a single run of 1000 bets.
Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on March 30, 2013, 06:42:05 AM I know how Martingale progression works. I do not find it superior to progression systems with static increase and decrease. Currently Botdice allows much wider customization of bets than doubling up on loss. Buy don't worry, the basic progression scheme of multiplying your previous bet will be added soon as well, so you can compare yourself how massive losses you'll get on average of 100.000 bets or even a single run of 1000 bets. It's a great app. What settings do you use for best results? added And apologies for me not getting it. Day off, I was in a different mind. Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on March 30, 2013, 07:17:02 AM BOTDICE updated to v0.55a
- fixed max and min bet limits - fixed round number to start from 1 - added multiplication progression adjustments (making Martingale possible) - added script benchmark It's a great app. Thanks, I hope you like it now even more :).What settings do you use for best results? Discussing the settings you can spend half of you life... but generally, I have an impression that settings increasing the bets towards the end of session rather than adjusting them down yield more. Someone proficient in math could chime in to evaluate whether that can combat the negative estimated value somewhat in a limited session. Also, I prefer catching winning streaks by increasing bets on a 50%+ odds game type, but I'm not sure to what extent this affects the total profit with what limitations. Naturally, with the house edge and fees taken into account, you'll fare best with the smallest number of bets and largest stakes. But it's rather interesting to run tests without house edge and fees. Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on April 01, 2013, 02:18:19 AM BOTDICE updated to v0.55a - fixed max and min bet limits - fixed round number to start from 1 - added multiplication progression adjustments (making Martingale possible) - added script benchmark It's a great app. Thanks, I hope you like it now even more :).What settings do you use for best results? Discussing the settings you can spend half of you life... but generally, I have an impression that settings increasing the bets towards the end of session rather than adjusting them down yield more. Someone proficient in math could chime in to evaluate whether that can combat the negative estimated value somewhat in a limited session. Also, I prefer catching winning streaks by increasing bets on a 50%+ odds game type, but I'm not sure to what extent this affects the total profit with what limitations. Naturally, with the house edge and fees taken into account, you'll fare best with the smallest number of bets and largest stakes. But it's rather interesting to run tests without house edge and fees. Yes, the changes are great. Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on April 01, 2013, 06:26:53 AM Seems to be some issues with win and profit calculations in determining when a game is complete.
I understand how you determined the win amount. If there is a note that the txfee is subtracted from the win before the win is printed to the screen, my bad for not seeing that information. Suggestion: Technically in accounting for the win and the profit; the win is the return from SD and the profit is where the txfee is subtracted. For example when a bet is won on SD 50/50 the payout is 1.957. This is "gross profit" or the win. I bet 1.0 on 50/50 and win; my client will show a return of 1.957 Then profit "net profit" is where the fee is subtracted from the win. I think this approach would also build faith in your site since people would see the exact same amounts in the client and on your site. (assuming they are always charged a fee of I included a round where there seems to be an issue with calculating final profit for the win multiplier, but I may be missing something. (the code box gives better columns than quote) Code: x x Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: bitfreak! on April 01, 2013, 07:02:38 AM I haven't really played SD before and I'm not certain exactly how it works. At first I was losing basically every single time with your simulator, then I changed the settings and now I'm reaching a win target of +50% every single time. That can't be right can it?
Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on April 01, 2013, 09:32:45 AM Seems to be some issues with win and profit calculations in determining when a game is complete. This was just because the last bet was not printed before the completion announcement - it's being fixed in the next version that's being uploaded soon.Quote If there is a note that the txfee is subtracted from the win before the win is printed to the screen, my bad for not seeing that information. No note, the win column listed net winnings.Quote I bet 1.0 on 50/50 and win; my client will show a return of 1.957 Then profit "net profit" is where the fee is subtracted from the win. I think this approach would also build faith in your site since people would see the exact same amounts in the client and on your site. (assuming they are always charged a fee of 0.00005. Sometimes I'm charged a gee of 0.0001) Your suggestion is appreciated. The amounts need to be the same as displayed on the client. Quote # lucky number bet win Profit I think we both are confusing the number of zeros here. The loss return rate is 0.005 times your bet, which affects returns extensively for small bet amounts. This has been fixed for the default menu.1 61829 0.010 -0.0104995 -0.0104995 (for round 1, shouldn't profit should be -0.01045? (-0.01bet + -0.0005txfee + 0.00005return) since this appears to scale the 0.0000495 difference can start to add up. [From private message] Quote from: Grover Also it appears possible to bet more than is in the bank The "bank" is misleading, it should be "cash per session". Big data mode works by separating sessions, so the possible loss of more cash than initial bank per session is by design. Quote Last, I think SD uses 0 to 65535 inclusive. That's true. It's correct in the software, but will fix for the description as well.There seems to be some inconsistency on what fees Satoshidice deducts from winning payments. On their site they state: "On a win or a lose a transaction fee of 0.0005 is subtracted from the payment amount." However, we received back exactly 1.957000x our winning bet upon test, without fees substracted. Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on April 01, 2013, 10:42:47 AM BOTDICE (http://botdice.com) update
2013-04-01 v0.56a - fixed last bet display error - fixed default lose multiplier - adjusted bet and win amounts to be uniform with real wallet results Next to do: - automatic multipliers for game types - limit last bet of session to not exceed bankroll At first I was losing basically every single time with your simulator, then I changed the settings and now I'm reaching a win target of +50% every single time. That can't be right can it? It depends on what you mean "every single time". With target profit of 50% and less it is not uncommon to reach target 10 times in a row. You are expected to reach 50% profit more often than not, unless you use exceedingly bad strategies.Use the big data mode to review a strategy you have found good from the single session analysis. If you still end up in profit after 100 sessions of 1000 rounds, you are set to be very wealthy ;D In such a case, a more likely possibility is that there are errors in the software. That's why it's still in alpha phase and all user reports are welcome. [EDIT: you can easily end up in profit in the big data mode as well. However multiple big data runs should yield clearly negative total result (because your big data losses can end up very large, even if you win more runs than lose).] Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Grover on April 01, 2013, 10:50:22 AM I bet 1.0 on 50/50 and win; my client will show a return of 1.957 Then profit "net profit" is where the fee is subtracted from the win. I think this approach would also build faith in your site since people would see the exact same amounts in the client and on your site. (assuming they are always charged a fee of 0. I did mistakenly add an extra 0 in each of the above statements. Your suggestion is appreciated. The amounts need to be the same as displayed on the client. And for some shameless self promotion I sent you a small donation for the site. I've tried many more different variations on betting that I've been meaning to test but never have. Thanks! Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on April 01, 2013, 10:56:52 AM Thanks for the donation! Every bitcent helps in keeping up the motivation ;)
Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on April 04, 2013, 09:22:43 PM BOTDICE update April 4th 2013:
v0.57a - limited bets to always be within session bankroll near cash expiration - adjusted colors for readability Testers welcome! Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - Satoshidice progression strategy for 100k rounds Post by: GCInc. on April 11, 2013, 09:06:33 PM BOTDICE awaited update:
v0.58a - automatic payout multipliers for Satoshidice game type selection! It was a surprise that this feature opens up a whole new world of usability when you don't have to type in the multiplier. I hope you're enjoying it as much as I am :) Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on April 11, 2013, 09:00:47 PM BOTDICE awaited update:
v0.58a - automatic payout multipliers for Satoshidice game type selection! It was a surprise that this feature opens up a whole new world of usability when you don't have to type in the multiplier. I hope you're enjoying it as much as I am :) Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - Satoshidice progression strategy for 100k rounds Post by: GCInc. on April 11, 2013, 09:03:43 PM BOTDICE awaited update:
v0.58a - automatic payout multipliers for Satoshidice game type selection! It was a surprise that this feature opens up a whole new world of usability when you don't have to type in the multiplier. I hope you're enjoying it as much as I am :) Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: frozen on April 12, 2013, 02:48:11 PM The first time the page is loaded, the Game Type selected is 60000. The payout multiplier on win is 1.957. If I select a different Game Type, and then re-select 60000, the payout multiplier changes to 1.004. Why is the initial payout multiplier different?
Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on April 12, 2013, 03:25:08 PM The first time the page is loaded, the Game Type selected is 60000. The payout multiplier on win is 1.957. If I select a different Game Type, and then re-select 60000, the payout multiplier changes to 1.004. Why is the initial payout multiplier different? There was a bug affecting the automatic payout multipliers. It should now show the correct multipliers from the beginning.Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Dabs on April 13, 2013, 10:18:32 AM After playing 1000 sessions of 1000 bigdata games, with all sorts of numbers typed in, you will eventually lose everything.
Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: GCInc. on May 13, 2013, 07:52:22 PM BOTDICE update v0.59a
Bitbattle.me multipliers added. Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Satoshidice rounds without losing your bank Post by: Financisto on June 20, 2013, 08:18:12 AM Nice bot.
Very well done. Congratulations! Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Just-Dice / Satoshidice rounds for free Post by: GCInc. on July 18, 2013, 08:09:44 PM BOTDICE update v0.60
- Just-Dice.com simulation added - Total profit fixed for big data Very well done. Thank you!Title: Re: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Just-Dice / Satoshidice rounds for free Post by: itod on November 21, 2013, 03:14:50 PM Hi,
Thanks for the bot, very useful. There seems to be only one problem: Initial bet amount can't go lower than 0.00001, which would be so useful for some simulations. It's not only the problem it can not fit visually in the table, calculations seem to be completely screwed of by this, although I can not be sure since can not see the results in single session. Is there any chance we can get 0.00000001 as minimal amount? BTW, is this opensource? |