Bitcoin Forum

Remember, Remember!
The 5th of november (http://www.potw.org/archive/potw405.html) 9th of July.
The Halving FUD and Plot.
I know of no reason
Why the Halving FUD
Should ever be forgot!

Before halving aside from all the hype about the price going to the moon there was a lot of talk about mining not being profitable anymore and miners quitting because of it. To a point where it was called a "Death Spiral" because of halving!

Now that some time has passed from halving The Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Increased for the Fourth Time Since Halving! (http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/09/15/btc-mining-difficulty-increases/) the hashrate is rising and miners are continuing their jobs even stronger than before!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1474006508

Miners are not going to leave because that leaves a position for their competitors to take. Every hash a mining farm pulls out, is more revenue for their competitors.

Besides that, miners were profitable at 200 usd, why wouldn't they be at 600 usd for half the bitcoins in the blocks?

i can totally agree that there where to many people expecting, that one hour after the halving we are either on the moon or dead.
those things usually take some time and 2 months later we know more, but still the price could go down or up because of some halving speculators.
also we do not know if the miners might be losing money but still operate. maybe they speculate that the price will go up again or some other competitor will drop out.
it might take up to one year until a big miner will go bankrupt.

what are goint to happen if this happens on 9th of november is bitcoin to be dead?but its like halving right? halving seems really like nothing happens and its like normal it basicaly that people buy more bitcoin thats why bitcoin price riseee

Once you get into mining/bitcoin its harder to get out you might aswell stay in. You get  emotionally + materially invested into the success of bitcoin.  This is why over 7 years all we have done is grown overall as the blackhole sucks more people in.

you two aren't making any sense!
mining is a business and if you don't make any profit from it, you will be forced to close down shop. at the end of the month you can't tell Electric company "i am sucked in" so i don't pay my electric bill.
so it must be profitable enough that they continue doing it like any other business.


read again!
it is the 5th of November was in the original lyrics, and 9th of July is the time of bitcoin halving (2 months ago)

how much business experience do you have? because if you are running a business thinks are not that easy ans sometimes it is even hard to tell if you making a profit or not. but i give you a very simple example. you are a miner. so far you have made a profit and have earned $100K, but last month you made a lose of $20k, this month you made a lose of $10K. you are still up $70k in total and on the rise again. Do you close your business? and by the way you still can pay for electricity.
also i do not now where you are from, but i could not pay my bills and still have electricity for months.   

I always believed that the warnings of a "death spiral" were overblown, but I am a little surprised by how little the difficulty dropped. I was expecting a drop of about 20%, but it turned out to be only about 5%.

I believe that the shallowness of the dip was a result of these factors:

• The release of the new S9 miner.
• The rise in price from $250.
• The big miners with prepaid electricity

What is also interesting is that this halving was very similar to the Litecoin halving a year earlier.

All those stupid ass FUDsters got proven wrong again, they always do. Bitcoin cannot die, it's immortal, miners will never leave because guess what, that just means the difficulty goes down and some other people find out an opportunity to make money if they leave. It's a self regulating system that just cannot fail. We will conquer the world and the universe.

i wonder whether hashrate will follow similar patterns for future halvings. Surely there's a point where hashing speeds will start to plateau and I assume electricity cost is a very fluid thing. What's free or negligible now may be rather more if population centres spring up.

It wouldn't surprise me if the same trends happen more in the future, and I personally would almost expect something like that to happen. The overall hashing power required needs to be doubled to make the same amount of Bitcoin, plus the natural upwards progression, and so you can imagine trends like that will be more common than not.

Very noticeable death spiral indeed. Some people only assume that the only incentive in Bitcoin is fiat profit, I guess they're wrong and what happened proved it.

Can you explain how "only incentive in Bitcoin is fiat profit" would result in a different outcome. How does this outcome prove that people were wrong about it?

Turns out it wasn't the miners that would leave... it was the users. Making those who invested in BTC's competition rich.    :-\

i also heard that alot of miners in china pay for their electricity for up to a year in advance, so there is no point in quitting if you have already paid your electric.

That's what some people and media seem to assume in regards to miners: they think they're only mining to convert all their income to fiat currencies, which is incorrect. If this was true, miners would just stop if their profits went down or they were negative. A cut in price, no matter how small it would be, if it made miners mine on red, would make them quit, if this was true.


Interesting, any sources on that? What prices do they pay with these kinds of contracts?

Seems there were very few prognostications about what was going to happen after the halving that actually turned out to be true.  It's quite humbling in a way.  No one can tell for certain what's going to happen and we're still very much in uncharted waters in many respects.

Nope, that's impossible (bolded), or at least, it's only possible for 2016 consecutive blocks (so an artificial 25BTC/10 mins would last for about 1 week). Because the block solution difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, and always has. The inflation of the monetary base would be too erratic otherwise, the 50BTC reward period would have ended alot faster than the 3 years 11 months it worked out at.

bitcoin users never leave bitcoin.
bitcoin investors never leave it either.
miners never leave bitcoin as long as it is profitable for them.

the only group that is left, who will leave bitcoin are those newbies that are called weak hands too, and they only leave out of panic of the FUD they hear.

Bitcoin death spiral taking place at this exact moment:

http://bitcoinandtheblockchain.blogspot.co.nz/2017/08/chain-death-spiral-fatal-bitcoin.html

I believe it will end when the BCH difficulty shoots up and the price drops from all the mining selling.

That must be the 100th time that blog post has been linked to here now. I assume the people putting it up to paralyse us with fear are getting referrals for it.