Bitcoin Forum

Trying not to forget ASICMINER and the various other startups we are beginning to see mentioned.

What would the projected hashrate and network difficulty be after avalon and BFL ship their "entire" line?

I know BFL will have a significantly larger amount of devices to hit the network but they are far away and ordering today would mean a long wait im sure.

What would the approximate numbers be for 3 months time, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months etc.

You forget 200terahash from asicminer.

Don't think I did, It was also the first few lines of the thread lol

1 million GH/s
http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/f/fa/Dr_evil_one_million_dollars.jpg

If you're only looking at time frames up to 18 months out, you probably don't need to figure in BFL.  Based on their history, they will probably not have shipped by then.

Are they actually going up to 200 TH?  

I saw a few posts mentioning their 1st batch was for 12 TH, 2nd batch was for 50.

Well, they are trying to get 200th by end of 2013, but they said it is a enormously conservative prediction.
so i guess they will have 200th by july or august. that may be a time where avalon #3 is completely shipped - or earlier. that may be also the time bfl ships - if.

I think the idea that BFL will be able to flood the market with ASIC's isn't likely if they are finding it difficult to come up with a prototype that works at spec.I think however we're looking at a moderate rise in difficulty due to Avalon's being delivered and ASICminer.

ASICMINER, if by end 200Th
Then Avalon current batches if delivered will add to up about 72Th
Let's assume Avalon gets in another batch of 600 -> ~36Th more, total 108Th

BFL -> not sure about the figures, but they got 5k chips per wafer? if they have 20 wafers coming (not sure again, but i've heard wildly larger numbers too) that's 100k chips.
Let's assume yield is just 90% and they only achieve half the advertised speed per chip -> 3.75Ghash -> 375 000ghash or 375Th

Adds up to about 683Th, by end of 2013.

As for BFL prototype not working correctly -> Prototypes rarely work completely as expected, that's why they are prototypes. It's completely expected that there will be some issues at first.
It's not like ASICMINER and Avalon hasn't had their share of problems.
ASICMINER is having issues as well. I hear that Avalons are crash prone.

Disclaimer: I have 1/3 of a Th ordered in with BFL, and i also have a nice quantity of ASICMINER shares.
When BFL starts shipping it's possible i will sell a lot of my ASICMINER shares to get a minirig or large quantity of singles.

696 TH/s  ;D

Yup, I'm with PulsedMedia, he's nailed it.

There are others, so 1 PetaHash at the end of the year.

Could be. There might be also some bigger parties who don't talk about their intentions before they are fully operational. Some big tech companies might just decide to invest on ASIC development and have their very own units running. If BTC price doesn't crash soon we could be close to the point when bigger players get interested in this.

Interesting. 

A few questions to help the rest of us understand the 1PH number.

• Who are the others?
• How much are they each contributing to the network?
• Where can we learn more about these other players?

The russian forum I would say, there is alot of activity from that region I have been told?

1 peta, that much  :o

Wow at that rate, the latest avalons are barely going to return then if things intensify quickly!

Can you share a link to the thread on the Russian forum  that talks about this?

For example:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140366.120
If they succed (read: NOT SCAM) thats another 200 TH.