Bitcoin Forum

Agreed, the world is so messed up, it is really anyones best guess as to what is truly going to unfold. Regardless, we can rest assured that we are in for some rocky times ahead.

I'm confused. You agree with the first confident comment that "we are about to get some inflation" and then say "it is really anyones best guess" - which is it? Are you confident we have inflation ahead of us or do you have no idea?

Not sure where you live but there are several major countries with extremely low intereste rates right now. When those interest rates start to rise you'll see inflation. The start of it will be normal inflation (vs. no inflation now). If it gets above 5% inflation we're getting into high territory. Not the highest it's ever been, but creeping into higher than normal. Just a bit of education for you.

'I think a better question for us to discuss is what would cause the inflation of bitcoin? There are no interest rates that would cause it, so what else could?

Bingo.

...

While not an expert, I have wrestled with this issue (among other financial subjects) for many years.  After years of watching and talking and commenting (ZH and other places) my *guess* would be along the below scenario playing out:

1)  The first big thing to happen would be a scary stock market crash, and other bad things things happen to the financial system (bank failures, maybe credit cards not working, etc.).  This would likely be deflationary.

Once things got scary enough...:

2)  The central banks and governments would be under enormous pressure to inflate by printing money (or similar).  Then that would likely lead to hyperinflation.

It could go either way though.  IIRC, Germany had a deflation after their horrid experience with hyperinflation in the 1920s.

Since we really have no way of knowing would will happen (not even Maloney and Dent -- although they are both smart guys), my suggestion is to be diversified in asset holdings as well as having as little debt as possible.

You're right about the hyperinflation part, and that is also why Nazi Germany became a thing in the 1930s. They were literally brought into power by people who just wanted to earn a living and get by, and it was known as the Germany Economic Miracle iirc.

As for the current state of the world, we could see either deflation or inflation in our future. Inflation is likely, however deflation might have its place if interest rates start going negative.

Interesting times we live in.

I agree, especially when a financial crisis is about to become another great depression just like during the 1930's, the US government does not fail to bail every big bank and every large corporation out. So that only means that there is more and more fiat in circulation. Sooner or later growth must come to an end and an economic collapse will happen. When that collapse comes and we all have this fiat in circulation, what now?

It was John Maynard Keynes that championed the theory that state intervention is a must to control the boom - bust cycles in the economy. But that will only take you too far.