Bitcoin Forum

That's pure speculation. Another source attributed the recent Bitcoin rally to actions of the Chinese government that is apparently cracking down on certain investment opportunities.

The truth is that we can't really identify the reason for the recent rise in fiat valuation of Bitcoin beyond saying that there is increased buying activity. Causal attributions to real world events are impossible, because all date we have are purely correlative.

In my opinion the upcoming release of Bitcoin 13.1 featuring Segregated Witness qualifies equally well to be a reason for price appreciation. In the long term, Bitcoin will simply increase in value compared to fiat because fiat money unlike Bitcoin is subject to inflationary devaluation. So Bitcoin is an attractive hedge against inflation.

ya.ya.yo!

We can't identity the reason, and that's make that section so living ;D ! It also contributes to people buying bitcoins since all their phantasms are awakened.

Think it has more to do with the police force in the Philippines paying $100 per head of drug users. ;)

The election is a blip,not saying its a not big deal but the correlation is weak.
Bitcoin tends to do odd moves when you think it is connected to gold it goes the opposite. What we face is a little market manipulation and people start buying back in thinking they
can make a bit of dough off the next upward cycle. Its not a bad idea but bitcoin has the tendency to get a slight push and it starts to sail because we get all frantic about missing the boat.

Maybe it is also because the Bitcoin mining rewards are also cut in half every 4 years. We had one this year and the first one happened on 2012. Both halvings created more demand for BTC and the direct effect is an increase in the price. That is the practical explanation that is the most plausible for me. 

most of what you say are only guesswork and speculation. and all the changes to bitcoin price and relationship with US presidential election is mostly coincidence.
i agree that there might be some hype involved in this but that is not going to make this much volume especially in Chinese markets which are the starter of this rise and still have the most volume!

Its  just  pure speculations  and  there are really exact  things that are  happening as  of  now    thats  why  bitcoin price  still increasing as  of  now. Bitcoin rallies  during   presidential election  is   just  nonsense  though because  it doesnt  connect regarding  on the demand  of  bitcoin.  The true story here  is that  chinese   do accumulate   millions  of  bitcoin as   ive read  from the news   which   is  really the main thing   that affect bitcoins  price as  of now  not to those  tings  that  OP mentioned. IMHO

I am interested to see if there is any concrete evidence about this claim, like for example what was the price like the last time an election happened? was it the same way with the same reasons?

besides I doubt that US presidential election has any significant effect on the price since bitcoin is not US money but instead a global currency which is not restricted to only one country and there are currently other countries like China that are using bitcoin a lot more than US people.

In my view, the recent price rise from around $610-620 that had been there for over two months up to today's $690 should rather be attributed to the effects of this summer reward halving that finally hit the market and tell on the Bitcoin price in full. If this is really so, and I hope it is, we may see a further rise in price as the Bitcoin supply is diminishing, and consequently being overwhelmed by the demand.

It is tough to prove causation. If elections really resulted in more money being routed into alternatives money, then there will be smart money which precedes this. This would result in a downard correction during election time, as they book profits.

I don't think this has anything to do with elections. How can anyone prove the connection, there are no relevant facts to be checked. So these are pure speculations.
Bitcoin to my opinion is not so influenced by politics like fiat money.

I tend to agree that Bitcoin itself is not much prone to political controversies, elections, and things like that. Nevertheless, we still can't escape this influence because Bitcoin prices are still quoted in fiat currencies, for example, in dollars. If the dollar gets affected by politics as it does, then the Bitcoin price is necessarily affected too. In other words, if the mountain (Bitcoin) will not come to Muhammad (the Dollar), then Muhammad must go to the mountain.

I also think that no one country can greatly affect the price of Bitcoin. America, too, will not be able to do it.

The thing about the United States is that the President isn't the most important person as far as the economy goes. Yes, the president controls foreign policy and defence, but Congress controls taxes and the fed. So I expect an interest rate to rise and the USA to survive no matter who gets elected, because separation of powers really will protect them.

If the POTUS starts the war much talked about recently, Congress may already be irrelevant. Yes, I know that it is Congress that declares a war ("Congress shall have power to declare War" as per Constitution of the US). But there had been numerous cases when the US president acted without prior authorization from Congress, for example, NATO bombings of Yugoslavia in 1999. In this manner, foreign policy and defense (or offense if you please) naturally take precedence over economics of a country.

I think many people, after  halving,  were claiming that bitcoin price will touch $1000 in December this year. and i think the current price increase is the way towards that price of $1000 mark in December.
I dont think Presidential Election has anything to do with the price boost of bitcoins.

That definitely is not true. America and China are huge markets.
Any bad news from China has the potential to sink Bitcoin's price for some time.

Yeah there's are no affect on bitcoin price with the Presidential Election.It can affect bitcoin price if the the newly elected President in the US to be legal the Bitcoin that bank allow to trade it.Thats my opinion only.

Both supply and demand are not things unto themselves, they are not atomic since both are determined by numerous external factors. The upcoming presidential elections in the US, expectations and apprehensions because of them are among such factors. Even if they don't affect the Bitcoin price directly, it is still affected through the dollar rates changes. The degree of influence the elections might exert is debatable, but it can't be written off completely.

If there is instability then bitcoin always has an excuse to rise so it can effect the price.  Just like if there is an issue in crypto world the bitcoin has a reason to drop.  The current move looks like its to do with a china or a natural increase in value though IMO.

What do you mean by "natural increase in value"? Is there something like "unnatural increase in value"? In my opinion, all increases in Bitcoin's value are natural, regardless the cause. ;)

Financial journalists have a tendency to seek causes for market movements, because they need something to write. Just listing the recent trades can't justify paying them. Most financial journalism is pure guesswork and can't be reliably verified. They connect totally unrelated things to make a story. These people just write something that sounds somehow plausible with no research involved at all. Yet many of the true causes for market movements are never discovered, because they never became news in the first place.

If you want to become a good investor it's advisable to ignore financial journalists. You don't need to know the reason for a specific price increase of Bitcoin. It's totally sufficient to know that Bitcoin is a superior currency, not subject to monetary inflation...

ya.ya.yo!

I am hoping for a Trump win. There are rumors that if Trump wins the bitcoin price will skyrocket since Trump is unpredictable and no one knows whats going to happen, therefore Bitcoin will be used as a safe haven.

It is good to know but regardless of reason or correlation with is unknown to me. Or, it is just a coincidence that it is election  this November in USA. Or there are many money right now flowing is US due to election spending that is why some are use o buy the bitcoin, just only an opinion  for possible bitcoin rallies.

Trump may not be predictable, but the major issue with these elections is that Hillary is. And her predictability doesn't bode well for the whole world since everyone and his dog knows what is going to happen if she gets elected. If you ask me, I would rather opt for Trump's unpredictability than Clinton's conformity.

There seems to be a correlation, but I wouldn't go as far as saying it's also causation due to the Presidential elections.
If any candidate had any meaningful thing to say about Bitcoin, then we could see some reaction from the market after the election is over.

But these fluctuations have other reasons imo.

Although I'm sure all Americans will hate to hear this, the world (and bitcoin price) does not solely revolve around what's going on in your economy. It's a global currency. It's fairly obvious to anyone outside of your bubble that the price has a little to do with many different countries.

There was a popular belief that Bitcoin will skyrocket after Brexit, didn't happen. It's all just a pure speculation, we all can talk about how and when will bitcoin go to the moon, but our faith in Bitcoin is measured by amount of fiat we put in it.

I strongly agree with that. The Americans are not controlling Bitcoin. It is the Chinese that do. I hope this will bring you some peace of mind. On the flip side, though, we must admit that what's going on in the US economy will repercuss strongly across the whole world. It seems that no one particularly loves America, but somehow everybody loves American dollar.

Well, I think there's a correlation between USD:CNY and USD:BTC. Since Bitcoin can be used to hedge against a depreciating currency, the further the Chinese Yuan drops, the higher the price of Bitcoin will rise.