Bitcoin Forum

Thought Experiment: Entropy, Randomness and Online Bitcoin Casinos

What is "randomness"?  Is anything truly "random"?  Is everything by it's nature "random"?  My research has led me to believe that the only thing that is truly random is the decay of a sub-atomic particle.

Computers have a difficult time of creating a random number.  This is because they can only be told a process in which the outcome appears random by being exceptionally complex.  In addition, some programs (like the rand function in C) can be "seeded" by something that contains more "randomness".  For example when you generate a private key, some applications will ask you to type or click on your keyboard as this can generate specific data which can be used to seed the random function.

All that being said.  Here are the basic premises Aristotle style!

1.  The only truly random happening in the universe is the decay of a sub-atomic particle.
2.  Online casinos back-end random number generator is not tied to the decay of a sub-atomic particle.
3.  Therefore, Online casinos cannot be truly random.

The Experiment

Set up a neural network that attempts to identify patterns in the casino data.  For example an online roulette wheel.  Feed that data into the network and allow it to play forward.  If there is any "non-randomness" in the system, the program should get a higher win rate/percentage then just randomly choosing a number, or black, or red etc...

Thoughts?

Disclaimer

I’m a just a guy.  I have no crystal ball.  I trade in the market in ETFs, Variable Rate Bonds, Stocks etc.  I am not an economist, tax professional, or professional trader/money manager.  None of this should be construed as financial advice.  I now own ~5 BTC   I simply am fascinated by it’s potential and like to play mental games with myself.  I lurk these boards a great deal as they are interesting, but haven’t bothered to ask to be let out of n00bie world.  I don’t have nearly as much to contribute as some of the informative things I’ve read here.

You can get good random numbers from many things. Easiest might be a temperature sensor. Imagine a temperature sensor with a digital display, with 20 digits of precision. So it might say the temperature is 72.54472792884724655763 F  (about 22C). But the next time you look it might say 72.47798392534y7328... or, if it was a very expensive thermometer it might say 72.545076543277...

The very last digits will change very fast, and very randomly. They are good sources of randomness.

But, most random numbers used in computers come from pseudo-random number generators. These are mathematical programs which are designed to produce numbers that are as random as possible. Some of these are not good for cryptography, and you can crack them, and anything encrypted with them is not secure.

Fascinating about the temperature reading.  I hadn't heard about that.  I've heard that getting random numbers from programs (/dev/random on linux) isn't the best seed.  Thanks for the comments.

Update:  After talking to the owner of a reputable casino site, I now realize that this is a non-issue.  Check out http://www.random.org/.  Fascinating stuff.