Title: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: evoorhees on April 08, 2013, 04:42:27 PM This morning, a family member of mine asked me to write up my opinion of the Bitcoin price movement recently. For those who don't know me, I've been heavily involved in Bitcoin since May 2011. It is my full time life, my career, and my passion. The price in 2013 has been wild, and here's what I wrote to my family member.
----------- Unfortunately, while I'm certainly an insider, not even I know if the price will rise or fall tomorrow, or next week, or next month, or next year. Guessing short term price movements is a fool's game. My sentiment is the same today as it was a year or two years ago: either Bitcoin is worth zero, or is worth thousands of dollars each. It will take years for the market to figure out which it is. If you believe in the Bitcoin story, that it may revolutionize the world of finance, then it's a good idea to hold on to some Bitcoins. If you think it's just too risky, or are unconvinced of the narrative, then it's best to sell. As stated many times, Bitcoins are incredibly risky and volatile. The whole thing is one grand experiment. Don't ever hold more money in Bitcoin than you can afford to lose, and in general you should assume the whole thing will go to zero. Now, if you're curious why this price may be going crazy right now, it's a few factors: 1) A handful of "respectable" online merchants are now accepting Bitcoin, this proves that real businesses see the value in it. It's likely that others will follow. 2) Cyprus scared the hell out of everyone (and rightly so). While a few Cypriots may have bought some Bitcoin, the bigger influence is a world of onlookers who are all thinking, "well that could happen to US!" and "look how Bitcoin solves the problem of trusting banks." It's not so much that Cypriots are buying bitcoins now, but rather that the world realizes that as this euro (and soon dollar...) crisis continues unfolding, a greater number of people will seek some degree of refuge in Bitcoin. Speculators, seeing this possibility, are buying up Bitcoins. 3) Venture capital (and private investor) money is moving into Bitcoin. A small handful of VC firms putting in a small handful of their money could explain the entire current price rise. 4) An increasingly wide swath of the libertarian/gold & silver "hard money" types are buying into Bitcoin. They were very skeptical at first, but are coming around. There are probably a few hundred thousand people like this in America who are deciding to put a few grand into Bitcoin. 5) The FinCEN ruling clarified the government's stance on Bitcoin about 3 weeks ago. The good news is Bitcoin is very much legal, and will be treated basically like money. People don't need to worry that the government will come down on it any time soon. 6) The press attention gained from all of the above real-world events is fueling a huge amount of hype (justified or not). 7) Ignorant, foolish people are buying bitcoins simply because the price is going up and they think (consciously or unconsciously) that this means it'll go up tomorrow. Maybe 1% of the buying interest is from people like this, or maybe 99%. Such people may get really lucky, or impoverish themselves, but either way they're in it for the wrong reason. All of the above have combined over the past couple months to cause this price rally. It may well be a bubble, and could fall back down to $20/coin. Or, it could be the "new normal" and a new stable price between $100-$300 will be found. Or, it could be the start of a mega bubble that drives prices over $1000 before they come crashing down somewhere and cause widespread misery and chaos. The price right now could be the highest Bitcoin will ever be from now on, or the lowest. Nobody knows! My advice... don't obsess over the fluctuating price on any given day. The market will figure out the value of these coins, and there ain't a damn thing anyone can do to prevent this from playing out. But certainly, Bitcoin is the most important thing happening on the planet right now... and it has nothing to do with the price. -Erik Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: Peter Lambert on April 08, 2013, 04:47:12 PM Nice analysis. I really like point 7 - buying bitcoins hoping to make a quick buck on their price is a very risky strategy.
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: evoorhees on April 08, 2013, 04:52:40 PM Nice analysis. I really like point 7 - buying bitcoins hoping to make a quick buck on their price is a very risky strategy. Well, holding bitcoins in any quantity for any reason is "very risky" in my opinion. But those who do it simply because the price is rising (without understanding the fundamental reasons why Bitcoin is valuable) are both risky and incredibly foolish. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: freequant on April 08, 2013, 05:12:56 PM That's probably the most level headed and objective piece of advice I have ever read on Bitcoin.
What you said was true two years ago, is true now, and will remain true a few years from now. That would make great material for Bitcoin primers Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: evoorhees on April 08, 2013, 05:15:37 PM That's probably the most level headed and objective piece of advice I have ever read on Bitcoin. What you said was true two years ago, is true now, and will remain true a few years from now. That would make great material for Bitcoin primers I happen to have written one: http://evoorhees.blogspot.com/2012/04/bitcoin-libertarian-introduction.html (http://evoorhees.blogspot.com/2012/04/bitcoin-libertarian-introduction.html) Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: virtualmaster on April 08, 2013, 05:38:01 PM They are some good points.
I think also that at the moment when begin the the price rally above 20$ it was driven mostly by speculation/investiture rather then real business. However during the last 3 mounts bitcoin gained a huge media interest and popularity exactly because this price rally. This had the benefit that: - more people read about the bitcoin and cryptocurrency idea and get familiar with it - more shops and services started to accept bitcoin and this way the price development was at least partly backed. The price will surely crash once for a limited time but it will unlikely come under 100$. A lot of people are waiting a price crash to buy cheap bitcoins so when the price will approach 100$ a huge amount of buyers will jump in the market. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: lucif on April 08, 2013, 05:49:07 PM 1) A handful of "respectable" online merchants are now accepting Bitcoin, this proves that real businesses see the value in it. It's likely that others will follow. This is common mistake. They accept Bitpay - not Bitcoin. You claim you are insider, so you should know difference. Big difference.Those who accept REAL Bitcoin now suffer from such volatility and get paralyzed. You should add here that this 2-billion bubble only stays on two interconnected amateur companies - mtgox and bitpay. Bring down any - and everything will collapse. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: evoorhees on April 08, 2013, 06:01:59 PM 1) A handful of "respectable" online merchants are now accepting Bitcoin, this proves that real businesses see the value in it. It's likely that others will follow. This is common mistake. They accept Bitpay - not Bitcoin. You claim you are insider, so you should know difference. Big difference.Those who accept REAL Bitcoin now suffer from such volatility and get paralyzed. You should add here that this 2-billion bubble only stays on two interconnected amateur companies - mtgox and bitpay. Bring down any - and everything will collapse. Let me refute that for you. A merchant who uses Bitpay to accept Bitcoin and convert into dollars is just as legitimate as a merchant who accepts Bitcoin directly and keep it as such. The reason is this: Bitcoin's value grows in proportion to the number of places, and ease with which, one can spend it. If every merchant on earth accepted Bitcoin, but converted into USD via Bitpay, then the following fact would be true: Every merchant on earth accepts Bitcoin. At this point, fewer and fewer people would decide to convert to dollars at all. The fact that we aren't there yet doesn't mean the steps to get there are invalid. And sure, it's true that those who accept Bitcoin "suffer" from volatility. But they've been suffering all the way up to $190. Give me a volatile currency that appreciates over a stable currency that depreciates any day of the week. And no, taking away Gox and Bitpay would not make Bitcoin collapse, I assure you. Within 3 months, it'd be like nothing happened at all. Why? Because as a trader, it is very easy to switch exchanges. And as a merchant, it is very easy to switch processors. Bitpay's client's do not have to spend months of integration time, and thus if Bitpay disappeared an alternative would be swiftly found. Same with Gox. Do not confuse a few points of market-based economic concentration (Bitpay/Gox/etc) with rigid centralization. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: jwzguy on April 08, 2013, 06:05:04 PM Speaking of places you can spend it, rent seems like a fairly big deal. Rent in NYC seems like a HUGE deal...closely following AE Property Management in Memphis's announcement last week, an NYC company is now accepting Bitcoin: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/4/prweb10608334.htm
If things like this keep popping up, I won't be worried about the price going to 0, ever. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: lucif on April 08, 2013, 06:06:00 PM Yes, but wordpress, namecheap and others probably may consider stay away from such risky processors.
Their turnover will just disappear. I don't say bitcoin will collapse, no. Price will. Again, two huge differences Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: evoorhees on April 08, 2013, 06:09:18 PM DVC a good investment. Currently the value of the coins is quite high, we can see that even the TRC (who is dead) 0.0056 BTC sale and all other currencies are as follows: PPC: 0.00267 BTC LTC: 0.02479 BTC NMC: 0.00661 BTC NVC: 0.02022 BTC DVC: 0.00000199 BTC Even as that NMC and TRC are dead market currencies and LTC and PPC are very new and overvalued currencies. The current value of DVC is: 0.00000199 Let's be pessimistic and assume that value can reach 1/10 of the current value of the PPC or 1/20 of the TRC, that would leave the DVC in 0002, an increase of 1,000 times its value! We can be very pessimistic and say that only go up to 100 times its value 0.0002 still a HUGE PROFIT MARGIN. Do not know about you, but I'm going to get 1 BTC to DVC and leave the account frozen several months or a year, I am sure that in the worst case I will take 50 or 60 times my investment, and at best Where I can take over 100 even up to 1000. Why do I assert this? Because we have seen how the currencies to be included in major markets disproportionately increase their value, as happened with LTC, TRC and PPC to be put in BTC-E, and MTGOX LTC plans to put on their market, which would make their price increased a lot and people tipping smaller coin (As happened to BTC), we get those coins smaller TRC and NMC have not already tested structure and be super unstable (TRC for several days does not process a single block ). At MTGOX put LTC, and maybe PPC, BTC-E will be forced to put between their quotes DVC, which currently shoot its price is just ridiculous. For the record, I find all the alt coins pretty silly, with the exception of namecoin which actually has interesting features to it. The rest is just the frothy wake of Bitcoin, but hey, I have nothing against competition and I'm glad that alt coins exist. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: lucif on April 08, 2013, 06:15:32 PM Hehe... Insiders... They invented a currency which root is in absence of middleman and building economy on two central points of failure.
People still put Bitcoins in "bank"(hello instawallet), they still use intermediates like Bitpay to Hey, Insiders! What actually did you change in this crazy world except making nasdaq-99 2.0? Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: wopwop on April 08, 2013, 06:18:55 PM Biased opinion is biased
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: WiseOldOwl on April 08, 2013, 06:25:17 PM Hehe... Insiders... They invented a currency which root is in absence of middleman and building economy on two central points of failure. People still put Bitcoins in "bank"(hello instawallet), they still use intermediates like Bitpay to Hey, Insiders! What actually did you change in this crazy world except making nasdaq-99 2.0? Its growing organically, even still. It is all just part of the process. "You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it." These third parties you talk about help ease the populous into Bitcoin, why?, because it is what they are used too. *edit - Hey evoorhees, long time no chat Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: lucif on April 08, 2013, 06:25:31 PM Where the mtgox moves - tell me, insiders?
Why the silkroad money launder #1 moves to democracy heaven jurisdiction right into bernanke hands? What happened to Kaddafi who offered alternate world currency? Where do they go? Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on April 08, 2013, 06:37:12 PM entire post Well said. I think you are a great spokesperson for the bitcoin community. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: virtualmaster on April 08, 2013, 07:25:07 PM I don't say bitcoin will collapse, no. Price will. Price will collapse but not now and not when 15.000 new user are waiting by Mt Gox for verification.They all need bitcoins and are eager to buy some coins regardless of how much will be the market price which will be pushed by them higher and higher. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: wopwop on April 08, 2013, 07:26:20 PM I don't say bitcoin will collapse, no. Price will. Price will collapse but not now and not when 15.000 new user are waiting by Mt Gox for verification.They all need bitcoins and are eager to buy some coins regardless of how much will be the market price which will be pushed by them higher and higher. doesnt say shit this queue # Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: virtualmaster on April 08, 2013, 07:36:50 PM I don't say bitcoin will collapse, no. Price will. Price will collapse but not now and not when 15.000 new user are waiting by Mt Gox for verification.They all need bitcoins and are eager to buy some coins regardless of how much will be the market price which will be pushed by them higher and higher. doesnt say shit this queue # Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: zeroday on April 08, 2013, 07:38:57 PM Don't ever hold more money in Bitcoin than you can afford to lose, and in general you should assume the whole thing will go to zero. Ironically, I would say the opposite. Don't keep more money in fiat than you can afford to lose. A week ago I lost the significant part of my wealth on European bank account after Cyprus thing. But my bitcoins are still safe and gained in value thirty-fold. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: dg2010 on April 08, 2013, 08:13:00 PM Don't ever hold more money in Bitcoin than you can afford to lose, and in general you should assume the whole thing will go to zero. Ironically, I would say the opposite. Don't keep more money in fiat than you can afford to lose. A week ago I lost the significant part of my wealth on European bank account after Cyprus thing. But my bitcoins are still safe and gained in value thirty-fold. How about we settle in the middle and say.... diversify your portfolio and you minimize the risk of any one single financial factor crippling you? Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: gizmoh on April 08, 2013, 08:44:01 PM MTGox redirecting the new accounts to get verified, Is that new policy? Can anyone confirm if that was the policy before?
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: yvv on April 08, 2013, 08:47:39 PM OP, you are reading my thoughts. Disagree only with the last sentence. Although bitcoin is really amazing technology, I would not say that this is the most important thing on the planet.
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: niko on April 08, 2013, 09:02:04 PM Speaking of places you can spend it, rent seems like a fairly big deal. Rent in NYC seems like a HUGE deal...closely following AE Property Management in Memphis's announcement last week, an NYC company is now accepting Bitcoin: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/4/prweb10608334.htm If things like this keep popping up, I won't be worried about the price going to 0, ever. There is something else to be worried about, though: false PR statements as part of pump'n'dump scheme. Many businesses are claimed to be "accepting Bitcoin" - but when I go to their Web site, there is no mention of Bitcoin whatsoever. Case in point: The NYC company you mentioned does not accept bitcoins. See their payment page, https://www.mysmartstreet.com/payment.aspx It only accepts bitcoins in the prweb story. What I think is happening all to often is that wealthy owners or executives of companies get personally invested in BTC, then use their companies to drive confidence up by false announcements (or at least announcements that they themselves don't take seriously). I am a huge bitcoin enthusiast, but I am tired of hype and false-flag bullshit. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: gizmoh on April 08, 2013, 09:09:01 PM Speaking of places you can spend it, rent seems like a fairly big deal. Rent in NYC seems like a HUGE deal...closely following AE Property Management in Memphis's announcement last week, an NYC company is now accepting Bitcoin: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/4/prweb10608334.htm If things like this keep popping up, I won't be worried about the price going to 0, ever. There is something else to be worried about, though: false PR statements as part of pump'n'dump scheme. Many businesses are claimed to be "accepting Bitcoin" - but when I go to their Web site, there is no mention of Bitcoin whatsoever. Case in point: The NYC company you mentioned does not accept bitcoins. See their payment page, https://www.mysmartstreet.com/payment.aspx It only accepts bitcoins in the prweb story. What I think is happening all to often is that wealthy owners or executives of companies get personally invested in BTC, then use their companies to drive confidence up by false announcements (or at least announcements that they themselves don't take seriously). I am a huge bitcoin enthusiast, but I am tired of hype and false-flag bullshit. Second that.. Just like Bitpay's CEO announcing transactions of $5 million last month, IS THERE PROOF TO BACK THAT STATEMENT? Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: yvv on April 08, 2013, 10:11:07 PM I don't say bitcoin will collapse, no. Price will. Price will collapse but not now and not when 15.000 new user are waiting by Mt Gox for verification.They all need bitcoins and are eager to buy some coins regardless of how much will be the market price which will be pushed by them higher and higher. doesnt say shit this queue # Or they don't want to withdraw now, but want to be able to do it fast in the future. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: toffoo on April 08, 2013, 11:09:48 PM I find it interesting that in none of the multitude of mainstream press reports on this latest "bitcoin bubble" nor in this excellent "insider's opinion" (from one of Bitcoin's finest spokespeople) have I seen mentioned what I believe is one of the most important drivers of the recent massive jump in the fundamental value of a bitcoin: the transition to the fourth generation of mining technology, ASIC chips.
While I agree all of Erik's points help explain the short-term influx of new buyers, I believe the long-term fundamental value of each bitcoin is best explained by the MARGINAL COST to mine each new bitcoin. If the number of bitcoins was forever fixed, every new dollar or euro that entered the market would simply go to paying off someone selling that bitcoin, who then removes that dollar or euro from bitcoin's market capitalization. But since (on average, currently) 3,600 new BTCs are created and enter the market every day, I believe what is paid to mine these new, marginal coins is the most important factor in the long-term, equilibrium value of all bitcoins. Anyone who has been following the developments from Avalon, ASICMINER, BFLabs (and perhaps others?) can see the massive expected jumps in network hash rate and mining difficulty that are already in progress as this technological transition unfolds. The increase between third gen and fourth gen hash rates is orders of magnitude greater than all previous jumps, and the transition will probably happen faster as well. Just as the first generation of CPU miners are no longer viable, second generation GPU miners will soon be swept away, and perhaps lower spec third generation FPGA devices may as well. All of the thousands of small miners all over the world who have grown used to receiving (and perhaps selling) their newly minted coins will soon need to now buy their new coins at market prices, or make large investments in new ASIC equipment to keep pace with large (now mostly semi-professional) competing mining farms. That's why when friends or family members ask ME about bitcoin's recent price explosion, I don't use the word "bubble" at all, but tell them it is a completely rational pricing shock reacting to a massive and imminent change in market fundamentals. And I'm not selling (many of) my coins yet either. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: jwzguy on April 09, 2013, 03:29:32 AM Speaking of places you can spend it, rent seems like a fairly big deal. Rent in NYC seems like a HUGE deal...closely following AE Property Management in Memphis's announcement last week, an NYC company is now accepting Bitcoin: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/4/prweb10608334.htm If things like this keep popping up, I won't be worried about the price going to 0, ever. There is something else to be worried about, though: false PR statements as part of pump'n'dump scheme. Many businesses are claimed to be "accepting Bitcoin" - but when I go to their Web site, there is no mention of Bitcoin whatsoever. Case in point: The NYC company you mentioned does not accept bitcoins. See their payment page, https://www.mysmartstreet.com/payment.aspx It only accepts bitcoins in the prweb story. What I think is happening all to often is that wealthy owners or executives of companies get personally invested in BTC, then use their companies to drive confidence up by false announcements (or at least announcements that they themselves don't take seriously). I am a huge bitcoin enthusiast, but I am tired of hype and false-flag bullshit. I'd appreciate it if you would actually read the story before you call it "hype" and "bullshit" - their press release clearly says that current tenants need to contact them and manually set up a Bitcoin payment. And I KNOW this one isn't false: https://www.aepropertymanage.com/ - they announced last week and their announcement is on the front page. I talked to them, they already have the payment button hooked to Coinbase. Any of their current tenants can pay their rent immediately with BTC through the webpage. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: niko on April 09, 2013, 04:02:08 AM Speaking of places you can spend it, rent seems like a fairly big deal. Rent in NYC seems like a HUGE deal...closely following AE Property Management in Memphis's announcement last week, an NYC company is now accepting Bitcoin: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/4/prweb10608334.htm If things like this keep popping up, I won't be worried about the price going to 0, ever. There is something else to be worried about, though: false PR statements as part of pump'n'dump scheme. Many businesses are claimed to be "accepting Bitcoin" - but when I go to their Web site, there is no mention of Bitcoin whatsoever. Case in point: The NYC company you mentioned does not accept bitcoins. See their payment page, https://www.mysmartstreet.com/payment.aspx It only accepts bitcoins in the prweb story. What I think is happening all to often is that wealthy owners or executives of companies get personally invested in BTC, then use their companies to drive confidence up by false announcements (or at least announcements that they themselves don't take seriously). I am a huge bitcoin enthusiast, but I am tired of hype and false-flag bullshit. I'd appreciate it if you would actually read the story before you call it "hype" and "bullshit" - their press release clearly says that current tenants need to contact them and manually set up a Bitcoin payment. And I KNOW this one isn't false: https://www.aepropertymanage.com/ - they announced last week and their announcement is on the front page. I talked to them, they already have the payment button hooked to Coinbase. Any of their current tenants can pay their rent immediately with BTC through the webpage. Don't hate me for being this harsh. Bitcoin deserves better than half-baked PR statements and "contact the manager for manual processing". If and when their payment page actually includes bitcoin, I'll be happy to change my attitude and welcome the effort. The same goes to gogreensolar and the likes. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: jwzguy on April 09, 2013, 04:05:58 AM I did read the story before posting. I still call bullshit. Half-baked. Their Website clearly states they accept MasterCard, e-check, and debit. There is no bitcoin. Why not? Why the manual setup? Why not even the mention of it on the payment page? It is hard to take this seriously. Are you sure? Because you clearly didn't even read my post, in which I posted a link to a property management company with a page that does accept bitcoin payment online, and made sure to point it out.Don't hate me for being this harsh. Bitcoin deserves better than half-baked PR statements and "contact the manager for manual processing". If and when their payment page actually includes bitcoin, I'll be happy to change my attitude and welcome the effort. The same goes to gogreensolar and the likes. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: niko on April 09, 2013, 04:08:16 AM I did read the story before posting. I still call bullshit. Half-baked. Their Website clearly states they accept MasterCard, e-check, and debit. There is no bitcoin. Why not? Why the manual setup? Why not even the mention of it on the payment page? It is hard to take this seriously. Are you sure? Because you clearly didn't even read my post, in which I posted a link to a property management company with a page that does accept bitcoin payment online, and made sure to point it out.Don't hate me for being this harsh. Bitcoin deserves better than half-baked PR statements and "contact the manager for manual processing". If and when their payment page actually includes bitcoin, I'll be happy to change my attitude and welcome the effort. The same goes to gogreensolar and the likes. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: lucif on April 09, 2013, 04:31:06 AM Where the mtgox moves - tell me, insiders? Nobody never like my questions ))Why the silkroad money launder #1 moves to democracy heaven jurisdiction right into bernanke hands? What happened to Kaddafi who offered alternate world currency? Where do they go? Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: RSantana on April 09, 2013, 05:07:10 AM Erik, Why Dubai, and did you like it there?
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: virtualmaster on April 09, 2013, 05:19:48 AM Where the mtgox moves - tell me, insiders? Nobody never like my questions ))Why the silkroad money launder #1 moves to democracy heaven jurisdiction right into bernanke hands? What happened to Kaddafi who offered alternate world currency? Where do they go? Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: virtualmaster on April 09, 2013, 06:12:43 AM I forgot something.
Hollywood will make a great film about the dictators lost treasure in the blockchain and everybody will search his passphrase. The increased interest will make again the bitcoin prices to grow. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: dg2010 on April 09, 2013, 08:49:16 AM Second that.. Just like Bitpay's CEO announcing transactions of $5 million last month, IS THERE PROOF TO BACK THAT STATEMENT? The info around that is sketchy. Apparently $5.2m worth of transactions during March which consist of 5100 completed invoices? So that's an average of $980 per transactions. Seems rather high if you ask me. How much of that was actual money and how much of that was just bitcoins moving around? If they paid out $5.2m in USD they would be at massive risk of losing lots of money at least until they could sell $5.2m worth of bitcoins on the markets to recoup thei payouts which as far as I know would take a little while and would create negative pressure on the price. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: Zaih on April 09, 2013, 09:43:35 AM Nicely played. I like your some what unbiased approach. Thanks
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: moni3z on April 09, 2013, 10:12:04 AM As long as I can still go on localbitcoins.com in any major city I travel to in the world and buy/sell with cash avoiding all government verification bullshit, limits, data mining and centralized exchange authorities seizing funds like they are paypal or something then I'm happy with bitcoin. MtGox monopoly will self destruct soon, esp when p2p exchanging starts growing. I traded my first coins in 2010 with a guy on IRC for Pecunix
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: dan99 on April 09, 2013, 11:09:31 AM It would be great if the algorithm can set to control the bitcoin price increase so that they could be more affordable.
Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: virtualmaster on April 09, 2013, 12:07:04 PM The latest news, sorry but I didn't found in English but you can translate with Google:
http://www.profil.at/articles/1315/560/356308/bankgeheimnis-auf-posten http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,866455 As I understood it seems that Austria and Switzerland almost agreed to share all data with the US authorities about accounts of US citizens in 2 years. What percentage of this money will be transferred in bitcoin in the next 2 years ? Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: caveden on April 09, 2013, 12:14:22 PM States are getting more and more desperate for money..... this is not going to end well. :(
It would be a good thing if everything were to collapse the soonest possible, so that they have the political excuse to default on these monstrous debts for once and for good. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: StarfishPrime on April 09, 2013, 12:58:20 PM ... 5) The FinCEN ruling clarified the government's stance on Bitcoin about 3 weeks ago. The good news is Bitcoin is very much legal, and will be treated basically like money. People don't need to worry that the government will come down on it any time soon. ... -Erik Thanks Erik for an excellent summary, one that every bitcoin holder / potential investor should read. One thought on the above (5) however: If the gov't ever considers bitcoin a threat to the 'real' economy, or a 'clear and present danger' to US interests at home or abroad, for whatever reason (i.e. funding enemies of the state, etc.) could this change very quickly and without warning? Nobody saw US gold confiscation coming in the 1930's, for example. Bitcoins may be safe on a PC or thumb drive, but I'd guess that a very large percentage are stored with trusted parties (US or soon-to-be US based) like Mt.Gox and others. Needless to say that 'bitcoin funds can never be frozen' does NOT apply in that case. Just ask any (former) e-gold account holder. In addition, such sites have reasonably low daily withdrawal limits for security reasons. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: virtualmaster on April 09, 2013, 01:11:52 PM ... 5) The FinCEN ruling clarified the government's stance on Bitcoin about 3 weeks ago. The good news is Bitcoin is very much legal, and will be treated basically like money. People don't need to worry that the government will come down on it any time soon. ... -Erik Thanks Erik for an excellent summary, one that every bitcoin holder / potential investor should read. One thought on the above (5) however: If the gov't ever considers bitcoin a threat to the 'real' economy, or a 'clear and present danger' to US interests at home or abroad, for whatever reason (i.e. funding enemies of the state, etc.) could this change very quickly and without warning? Nobody saw US gold confiscation coming in the 1930's, for example. Bitcoins may be safe on a PC or thumb drive, but I'd guess that a very large percentage are stored with trusted parties (US or soon-to-be US based) like Mt.Gox and others. Needless to say that 'bitcoin funds can never be frozen' does NOT apply in that case. In addition, such sites have reasonably low daily withdrawal limits for security reasons. Title: Re: An insider's opinion on the crazy Bitcoin market Post by: mmortal03 on April 10, 2013, 07:19:28 AM 2) Cyprus scared the hell out of everyone (and rightly so). While a few Cypriots may have bought some Bitcoin, the bigger influence is a world of onlookers who are all thinking, "well that could happen to US!" and "look how Bitcoin solves the problem of trusting banks." It's not so much that Cypriots are buying bitcoins now, but rather that the world realizes that as this euro (and soon dollar...) crisis continues unfolding, a greater number of people will seek some degree of refuge in Bitcoin. Speculators, seeing this possibility, are buying up Bitcoins. 3) Venture capital (and private investor) money is moving into Bitcoin. A small handful of VC firms putting in a small handful of their money could explain the entire current price rise. 4) An increasingly wide swath of the libertarian/gold & silver "hard money" types are buying into Bitcoin. They were very skeptical at first, but are coming around. There are probably a few hundred thousand people like this in America who are deciding to put a few grand into Bitcoin. 7) Ignorant, foolish people are buying bitcoins simply because the price is going up and they think (consciously or unconsciously) that this means it'll go up tomorrow. Maybe 1% of the buying interest is from people like this, or maybe 99%. Such people may get really lucky, or impoverish themselves, but either way they're in it for the wrong reason. Why are the number 7 group "in it for the wrong reason", but 2, 3, and 4 are not? What are the practical differences between any of these? All of these can be made to be very right if the price goes up significantly, or made to be very wrong if the price goes down significantly. Their individual "reasons" for buying bitcoins doesn't seem to matter at all, at least from how I see it. |