Bitcoin Forum

Well, topic says most of it...

My greatest concern is never to see a ROI and my second concern is we won't see a ROI within year..  with ROI I mean mainly in BTC, not fiat money but speculate freely please. add 25 % VAT on price of the avalon for european customers.

What is the worst case scenario in your opinion?

Does anyone else who purchased a #3 have the same worries? Feel free to speculate even if you haven't ordered one yourself.

I think the one year ROI is the worst case scenario. Even if BFL produces all their preorders and even if ASICMINER deploys all of their 262 TH, Avalon #3 will be profitable. It will just take longer.

It ALL depends on the delivery time. I'm also afraid of the BTC roi of my batch 2 order. We can only wait for an update from avalon during the next week or so.

Worst case is ASICMINER delivering 50TH tomorrow, BFL shipping 100TH in 2 months (will never happen) and Avalon delaying another month for batch 2/3 customers while the network hashrate increases without any pause. In this case, an Avalon would do less than 1BTC per day. The initial investment would likely never come back, if the hashrate keeps growing at that pace, that is something i assume to be true.

We can only sit and wait for an update from Avalon.

hmm. maybe i should've posted this to mining/speculation..

The mods have been having a field day moving threads so if it should move it probably will.

As regards a batch 3 order, well only time will tell. Too many unknowns to really make any kind of informed guess.

The avalons are woefully power inefficient, but the upshot is that even so they are delightfully efficient comparatively and can be run into mega difficulties . My bet is that in terms of BTC they will return their cost, perhaps in a year, however if BTC return the same fiat value in that time is anyone's guess. BTC could be worth nothing or enough to buy a house, we all wait eagerly to find out

You can always sell the pre-order.

Be happy you have it ordered, I'm happy with my 4 mod Batch3 Avalon order... waiting for it!
Dont take too many worries at this moment. It was the only choise and only way to stay or get in the game!
Sure it will mine back its price. We´ll see how fast..

my prediction of the ROI is 2-4 months. Most likely in 2 months. ;D

So why does that make you nervous then?  In your "it will never happen scenario above", you have the network at 275TH (all avalon delivered too) and you will have a 65GH machine in your hands that you paid 75 BTC for (or around $7,000 for).   So, how many BTC per day can you expect at that point??
around 0.85 right?   What price to put on BTC (I know it varies but my bet is the trend is up, not down) so humor me and use $200.    So, if miracles happen (all of the miracles are BAD for you in the above case) and all these TH deploy before you get your unit, your BTC are back in less than 90 days and your USD would be back in 41 days.     You have won the lottery and are worried about it.

You are deliberating missing what an exponential rise is.

How so?

After that 300th, there would be another 600 the following month and another 1200 2 months after, 2400 etc. Also, supposing the price to be > 200$ 2 months from now is not something I would bet on.

So, you receive the hardware and you mine at 0.8btc. At the end of the month, you do 0.4btc. The following month, you will mine at 0.2, 0.1 after that.
0.6*30+0.3*30+0.15*30 = 31btc. You won't get much more.

if bfl ships in volume anytime before you get your avalon, yeah

The 300 are delivered and hashing and have taken the network to the 59TH it is at.   There are 1200 more to come (avalon) in batch II and III that is another 80-90TH.   I included that.   You bringing up what occurs MONTHS after you have your money back is irrelevant.   You all were lamenting about getting your money back.   The $200 point is ALSO irrelevant.  If you DO NOT believe in BTC valuations against FIAT, then you would still only have 88 days to wait to get your BTC back WORST CASE SCENARIO.   I do not understand where you can poke a hole in my math.   Capacity shifts (like production) takes TIME.   And I would argue that putting the 100TH in for BFL is just effing stupid since in your payback period there is zero possibility BFL ships 10TH let alone 100TH.

Who do you think is creating all that new hardware? People don't just pick it up at the neighborhood Walmart.

I took the time to update my post with some calculations so that you can get the concept.
Do you understand that this is now a fucking 250 million dollar market? Silicon valley CEOs are having wet dreams thinking about that. It will not happen in the next 3 months, but this summer, I'm quite sure I will shutdown my avalon.

I would be happy to be wrong. Asicminer alone is projecting 1000th by the end of the year, 8 months to go. It will be an arms race.

Can I bid on your avalon at a price we both can agree on for me to take if from you July 4th?

If you bid more than 50btc, sure!

Wow, are you bipolar?   Am I talking with the half that said, "I will have to shut it down in the summer because the exponential increase in difficulty" or the half that now feels that the shutdown machine in July is worth 50BTC?   If you truly believe the machine is worthless to you in the summer and needs to be shutdown, ask a reasonable price and I will agree to it.   USD or BTC.   We can find some way to come to agreement so that whichever one of us is wrong, will not welch on the physical exchange after the holiday weekend.

Big structures are not flexible enough to make strategic decisions quickly , and everything is happening very fast. The risk of a BTC price drop is still high, so the rise in difficulty will not be so immediate as you expect.

Your batch #2 will ROI nicely and will give you nice profits - you can bet on that.

If exchange rate keeps growing and market gets stronger... Oh boy, we are going to see huge, game-changing investments in the next couple of years.

I don't see how anyone could figure Av. 3 to be a bad buy.

Sure, like any other dude would have loved to been into batch 1 or 2 of course. What an incredible investment that turned out to be.

Batch 3 though, by all accounts, still looks like a terrific investment in the bigger picture.

I mean if you are worried about the hash rate increases coming just imagine where you'd be with no ASIC at all (like most people).  You certainly got more reasons to be happy than sad about this one.

And also consider the hoards and hoards of folks that bet on the BFL horse instead of the Avalon one. We're in much better position than those poor souls as well.

Things could only turn out badly if, in the remote chance, Avalon couldn't ship because of new shipping restrictions / it gets lost in the mail, or BTC suffers a massive collapse. I think either possibility is pretty remote.

short version: No

+1

I don't agree with this topic opinion.
Buying an ASIC miner is also a kind of invest. Nobody can ensure his invest is always right.
Even if you failed to get the invest mony back with the machine of Avalon batch #3, it is very normal and nobody you can blame.

the only way i see tons 100's of TH showing up fast is if some big name chip design guys (whoever they are) pop up a kickstarter,.. they would get whatever funding they wanted but then the truth would spread that last ones in get squat so it would make a messy scene.. it would have to be a limited sale but then why bother, they just mine themselves..  that is the whole scam with BFL, if they could make miners they would mine, but since they dont care what dreams they shove in a box they sell thousands

Avalon played their cards as best as anyone could


 

And still, you would be one of the very first 1,500 lucky persons that owns a piece of History of BTC: one machine of the first generation of the first BTC ASICs ever produced.

Cedivad: not that bad, right?

I think you're too negative. I bought 5 Ztex Quad's with fiat money and it took 7 months to break even, then the BTC price went nuts. So I exchanged some of the BTC to get back the fiat money put into them. Currently my only cost is electricity and my profit is around 3500% on a daily base :)
I think mining with FPGA's will be profitable for at least another year.
ASIC mining will probably be profitable for at least 3 years.
With profitable I mean electricity cost lower than generated BTC value.

July != During the summer. Summer ends 3 months after July. I'm sure you know that.
If you want to we can bet on the difficulty at the end of the summer, maybe on bitbet or such websites, i'm not interested into giving away my avalon for a price determined 6 months in advance. Also, i would like to remember you, the OP asked to describe a worst case scenarion, that is 300TH at the time of delivery with an exponential rise. This is not what i expect, it's what i'm preparing for. Expect the worse, hope for the best, one of my best mottos.

I can assure you that when i placed my order it was more because of i wanted to decentralize the network going solo (it doesn't matter if you do a block each month) and because of the feelings i had thinking about ordering that hardware, just like the nerd i'm. God, have you looked at that pictures? They are orgasmic! However, given the repeated failure of the alternatives and the huge price spike, this has now become my major btc investment and i'm trying to do the possible to have it back in the best form possible. After all, it's a lot of money.

I understand. But BTC price is still so volatile that it will take a while for the very big players to invest significantly in producing their own mining hardware. Sure, we will have more ASICminer like projects, but no way we are seeing companies of the likes of AMD stepping in, as some are suggesting, in the very next few months. It will take a bit longer. We will see a huge spike in difficulty, but it will be slower than you predict, ergo your batch #2 and #3 avalons will ROI and still give you a profit. We can bet on that ;)

I have stil yet figured out how to freakin order a batch 3 in the first place.  By the time I checked, it was OOS.. dafuq -__-

It really comes down to the fact that no one can answer this question.  There are simply too many variables, from a massive difficulty rise, to even the full collapse of BTC before that ROI time.  At this point just take a step back, deep breath and wait for some updates, nothing anyone is going to say here will lead you to the closure you are looking for.

It was staring me in the face but I didn't have enough bitcoins.... and not so quick to change $5-6k into bitcoins so had to watch it go bye bye

....and its gone.
http://i2.ytimg.com/vi/11ul_UViac8/mqdefault.jpg

ROI on batch3 not looking so hot right now. considering some 'investors' purchased coin at 100+

It depends at how you look at it. I want an Avalon to mine BTC, and I would like to have my 75btc back + more BTC. If prices go down a lot, GPU miners will turn off their machines and ROI could be easier for an Avalon.

Obviously I don't give a f*** about the exchange rate.

Haha. Good luck with buying it out in 10 years.

Im glad i didn't buy one, just a pain in the ass regarding everything from what im reading.

I'm wishing I bought more  ;D

fair enough, i can totally support that. however, for most new users who purchased an avalon (or 'shares' to one) are concerned with breaking even via USD, and then keeping profits in btc.

I'm wishing we would get an update on shipping of II and III.

+1

This obsession with BTC/fiat exchange rates is mind boggling. This is precisely why one gets in to Bitcoin to begin with.

CoinHorder get in here!