Bitcoin Forum

Question:  How long does it typically take for the USD exchange rate of bitcoin to double?

Answer:

Start_rate	End_rate	#_of_days	Dates
$3.125	$6.25	194	2011-12-01 to 2012-06-15
$6.25	$12.5	163	2012-06-15 to 2012-11-25
$12.5	$25	79	2012-11-25 to 2013-02-12
$25	$50	30	2013-02-12 to 2013-03-18
$50	$100	14	2013-03-18 to 2013-04-01
$100	$200	8	2013-04-01 to 2013-04-09

Given this timetable, would anybody like to make a guess at a range of dates between which they believe the exchange rate will reach $400?

This Saturday? Not possible...

wow so 4 days to double hmmm

Well? 6 months, 5 months, 3 months, 1 month, half a month, quarter of a month.

Another 3 days?

That is a bubble graph which seems to suggest that it will be $400 in 3 days, and $800 2 days later - and $1600 a day after that! :)

So $1600 a week from now?

This is the economic singularity  :o

Well, all that has to happen is there's no sell orders, and a $1 buy could send it to $1 000 000.

$3200 half a day later... $6400 by evening... $12800 by midnight that day...  :o :o :o

4 days to $400
6 days to $800
7 days to $1600
7 days 12 hours to $3200
7 days 18 hours to $6400
7 days 21 hours days to $12800

XKCD time:  http://xkcd.com/605/

All what i know is that i'm having an headache. And I'm 21, i should be healthy.
Meanwhile, the 200k$ buy orders on bitstamp and mtgox reaching 210.

There is no stop.

I cannot understand it. I'm trying HARD.

Edit, 211. Like what, 2 minutes after?

Maybe we have just underestimated how much people are unhappy with the current system.

http://i45.tinypic.com/117hicp.jpg

4.39 days, people.

There's plenty of hard drinking going on by the speculators pushing the price up.  They'll have headaches soon too  :-X


You're watching history in the making.

So we have one week before the crash.

MAybe the growth would continue exponentially if everybody could invest their fiat immediately.

In the rise since january we have consistently waited for the 12 hour moving average to catch up each time before moving up further.

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig12-hourztgSza1gSMAzm1g10zm2g25zv

So, this implies some pausing or dipping in between the rises, as has happened so far.
I think your schedule must still allow for this. If it rises too steeply, the order book can't adjust quickly enough.

Can it really be? That wuld be too sick. Most of us would be millionaires by the end of the month!

We are the new elite!

i had same thought.

It's crazy, isn't it?  Can this pattern really continue?  It "feels like" it's going to have to slow down.  I find it difficult to convince my self that it's possible for it to double in 3 to 4 days.  Of course, 9 days ago I'd have found it difficult to believe that it's possible for it to double in 8 days.

Between here and $300 are only 13k BTC.
This is the same amount as was needed to get from 150 to 200 over the last 2 days...
So perhaps $400 by the weekend is indeed possible...

Well its already pushing $214, I think $250 is possible by the end of the day EST

Fasten your seatbelts,  (http://konradsgraf.squarespace.com/blog1/2013/4/6/hyper-monetization-questioning-the-bitcoin-bubble-bubble.html)we are experiencing not a bubble (http://konradsgraf.squarespace.com/blog1/2013/4/6/hyper-monetization-questioning-the-bitcoin-bubble-bubble.html) but an unprecedented hyper-monetization event.  (http://konradsgraf.squarespace.com/blog1/2013/4/6/hyper-monetization-questioning-the-bitcoin-bubble-bubble.html)

I'm about to jizz in my pants!

you all can have my weak coins at $400 after the double

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvqJ1mTkEuY

I think it's more simple: we are experiencing the effect of freely available fiat (banksters coming to play) being used to purchase a hard asset (btc). Due to stupid regulations, they can't just make up funny money and walk away home with it - they have to lend it / invest it, then take profits to walk away with. Bitcoin is a perfect vehicle.

So... we would have exponential (e^t) growth if the #_of_days was constant... but now it's halving every time the value doubles. I'm not going to figure out the formula for that, but it seems that if this development continues, we reach the singularity in 8 days. Ladies and gentlemen, I hereby forecast that by 17th of April, Bitcoin is infinitely valuable.

Of course, some other factors might come into play before that. ;D

Daily growth for April is now 10%.

My charts (which the bears didn't like) extrapolating a few weeks of 5-6% daily growth now look obsolete.

The growth could slow down, it could speed up.

Who knows where we'll be at the end of the week.

I will add that I've been watching the markets since 2009, I've traded a BIG total since then.

I've never seen anything like this.

I like your thinking.

My wife (whose birthday that day shall be) will be expecting an exceptionally expensive gift.

How about North Korea, turned into an ornamental garden?

If all the mined coins are sold each day, current 2.8 billion new dollar per day will support a price of $77777.  If less than 10% coins were sold, the limitation will be around 1 million. And this does not count all the existing dollar saving accounts

The next most interesting event is: FED changed their view of economy and start to tighten. At that stage, they will sell assets for USD, compete with bitcoin. But strange things might happen, people will sell assets for bitcoin, so what really happened is that bitcoin exchange price stay the same while assets price crash big. No, I guess they dare not to do that...

Obviously we'll reach complete mainstream adoption by next week ;)

No, it has to slow down - that is an absolute fact. It simply isn't possible for all the people who have never heard of Bitcoin to be fully convinced and fully invested over the coming week. That would be insane. Why am I even having to say this?

I'm a hyperbull, expecting a decent chance that each bitcoin will be worth zillions. But this double exponential growth ends this by next week. We all agree on that.

So what this really means is all bets are off. We may be in a bubble, but even if we are it could still rise another tenfold. Maybe even in a single week. But after that it must cool its jets to some degree at least.

Luckily the learning curve and Gox verification cue smoothe things out a bit and we might not have a crazy selloff when things slow down as they mathematically must.

I think it clear this is unsustainable, I cant think of many run ups like this that ended in a stabilization though.

Stability is the last thing I would forecast.

http://s14.postimg.org/5kxpp9mhp/chartexp.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/5kxpp9mhp/)

Little chart I knocked together.

So good news! We can all look forward to retiring with infinite money very soon :)

400 U$ @ April 15th
Why not ?

Thanks OP for this info, well researched :)

now 246 on CaVirtex.com   Leading the way over Gox as for the last month or so !

I sell 1% of my coins @ 400$ and another 1% @ 800$ to have some fiat in case of a correction :P

Because it's absurd. And with this run-up you would be silly to expect anything but a sharp, substantial and enduring drop.

Too much BID, no enought ASK,.. this thing is doomed to go up alot (an order of magnitude) before the drop, if any !

Due to EXPLODE !!!

watch this :

https://i.imgur.com/0B2xh8I.png

Does anyone care to (re)post the historic trend graph for Berkshire Hathaway shares? :)

https://i.imgur.com/FfBq96s.png (http://imgur.com/FfBq96s)


i dont get it. please enlighten me?

+1

i am a student of modern history.
but i don´t need to ask my professor to know. we are making history. either way. tulips?

it´s not a bubble. its cryptotulipical

Looks like a fair example of a market that's almost permabullish to me.

I know that corporation, but in your graph I fail to see any tenfold increase in a matter of weeks neither a hyperbolical growth slashing doubling times by half into a matter of days.

Please tell me you not trying to justify Bitcoin's growth by comparing it to company that specializes in long term investments in companies notably eschewing even the most successful technology stocks, never-mind currency experiments like Bitcoin.

Warren Buffet wouldn't touch Bitcoin with a barge pole.

His son probably does.

This post just made me cash out.  I just sold almost all my bitcoins on MtGox for $236 each.  I'm going to use the dollars to pay off debt.

I don't understand the price appreciation.  If I had money right now to invest I would not buy bitcoins.  Thus I shouldn't keep my bitcoins because the dollars are more valuable to me.  If the price does collapse I will be glad to have taken this move.  If the price keeps doubling every day or so then I will just wonder why?  I don't think I will ever understand it.  It challenges my very conception of what value is.

Oops.  ::)

I wish we could make everyone here post the last position they took on bitcoin underneath their name....

BTCLuke
Bought at $3
Still holding

sgravina
Sold at $236
Scared shitless


Wouldn't that be useful? Let's start a petition.

but it will keep going for an entire week. you miss 3x double...  

yerp.  those with eyes to see will see clearly.  those with ears to hear will listen correctly and receive the correct message, and hopefully act accordingly.

Even though I see your point, and I think this is a bubble, I would not have sold more or less everything. But then again, I would already have sold several smaller posts as I think this rate is unsubstainable in the short run.

Would making a purchase using bitcoin be considered a "position"?

If someone makes a purchase valued at $1000 at the time, and uses bitcoin to pay for that purchase, should that be considered the same as taking a position of "selling" at whatever the rate was at the time of purchase?

For the individual using that bitcoin I suppose the end result would be pretty much the same either way. But purchasing real products with bitcoin rewards and helps bitcoin businesses, and thereby the currency and economy as a whole.

Personally, I generally "don't do" buying fiat with my BTC but I do buy stuff with BTC from time to time.

My personal thesis is we need a correction at some point. I think we're near one now. The next 24 hours for me will be illuminating.

If we do achieve some crazy valuation like $1,000 - I'll have to reconsider, but for now I'm very apprehensive about a chart that looks insane on the LINEAR scale and the LOG scale.

The trader inside me is saying "cover and hunker down". I'd recommend you cover what you're comfortable with, because it is getting very nutty out there.

Demonetization in this way is impossible. It will cause hyperinflation of fiat too and in result BTC will devaluate together with fiat in the end. But some people will loose all money while others will get fortunes, it will also destabilize markets. Goverment will simply ban BTC. All this ride started one or two days after legalizing BTC (i have stupid guess that this move was to spite China) and might stop like this.

This will probably be as effective as the government "simply banning" various drugs... or guns in Chicago... or driving over 55/65/70 mph on an empty highway in Nebraska...

Agree that its impossible to completely stop bitcoin, but it will pop the bubble as exchanges, bitpay etc will be forbiden too.

They would thrive online by operating out of territories where bitcoin is at least legal if not encouraged, the way that online gaming does now. But buying/selling bitcoin would become somewhat trickier in banned countries, for sure.

Extrapolating yesterday's 23% growth would bring the doubling period down to 3.35 days.

If the price closes at $282.89 that again will be 23% daily growth at Mt Gox closing prices (UTC).

I feel dizzy.

online gaming or gambling?

Why would government ban Bitcoin but not all the other risks in the market?

Because it's against goverment (rulers) interest. But I think this bubble will explode itself, without help of goverment. I just guess, hard to predict anything. Imho there is no way BTC can be wildly adopted as main currency, because it was desined as ponsi to make it's creator rich, otherwise amount of generated BTC would depend on poularity or have constant price somehow i donno. The way it goes now seems not right to me. Although maybe over years, after few bubbles it will adapt as good second virtual currency.

Damn! It appears that reality got in the way of my bulletproof mathematical analysis. But I'm putting up a sell order for 1 BTC at $1000000 at Mt. Gox., just in case.

(Bitstamp only allowed for a maximum price of $99,999.99. Not very forward-thinking of them, I'd say.)

I have learned a lot about financial stupidity these days... about me. Yes, I predicted a big correction, but I only partially put my money where my mouth was and sold just a few of my BTC because I wanted the price to go just a little bit higher. It's amazing what greed can do.

I haven't lost anything, and I consider those profits I never took a money well invested in my financial education. :)

i did worse. i was fast enough to sell when it went down first place. then, when it shortly run uphill i was panicing i end up with no btc. so i bought. bulltrap. when it started to really go down, mtgox was not taking my panic sell order no. 2. i ended up with all coins, no fiat to buy more ...

So where are we now? The price has doubled in the past 20 days...will it double again in 10 days?

:D

This post shows what a bubble looks like, when the price is going parabolic not only on the linear chart but also the log chart, when the time between doublings is getting exponentially faster.

In short, a bubble in an exponential growth pattern looks like double-exponential growth - that is, exponentially increasing rates of exponential growth. For example, doubling every month would be straight exponential growth (a straight-line slope on a log chart), but doubling in a month, then two weeks, then one week would be double-exponential growth (exponential curve can be seen even on the log chart).

If you want to know when we're in a bubble, learn to recognize double-exponential growth. Study the four-year log chart daily to keep perspective. If you see curling upward even on that chart, you know people are getting carried away.

 Like now ;)

Yep (https://i.imgur.com/gB1BnY1.jpg). Just a tad curly on the log chart, and very steep slope as well. Glad we're taking a little break (or are we?). On this short a run-up only a short break is needed to straighten things out again. A 20 to 30 degree angle seems nice; now we're at 45, very steep.

As I am typing this we just hit $820 (18/11/2013)
We doubled from $420 on the 15/11/2013 (day/month/year).

So we doubled in 3 days. We are definitely in that territory again.

I predict we will correct soon and pulled out for now. See you at $5xx again

nice call  ;D

Are there some easy-to-use historical time-series data-sets available for mucking around with?  Interested, has anyone tried to apply stochastic volatility estimators (i.e: GARCH) and compared to, i.e., outlier penny stocks with ultra-high volatility?  I'd imagine BTCUSD blows doors off most all of them, especially if we start looking at sums of moving averages to try to capture sustained instantaneous volatility...

Then again... just thinking out loud... perhaps working with, i.e., de-trended logarithmic data might surprise us?  Conceivably, BTCUSD (or, I dunno, BTCinsert-your-favorite-real-value-estimator here...) is not so horribly volatile as it's perceived to be, once we give it credit for an innate tendency to exhibit unusually high exponential growth?