Bitcoin Forum

https://www.shorex.com/images/ExpertOpinion/2015-06-22-rmg2.jpg

The current situation is starting to feel a lot like the big run up in nov/dec 2013. But where are we at right now?

If we break 1000 and then make it into the news expect a top around between 1300-2500

I think when bitcoin will cross the point of 1000$ it will attract attention of the media and that will make bitcoin even more popular and more useful. The attraction of new users will make the price to continue to grow.

Do you see many institutional investors buying Bitcoins at this time? No? Well then on your chart we are before the Institutional Investor phase.

Atm we're sitting between 10B-20B MC; a new take-off - media attention.

https://i.imgur.com/EUE0K99.png

Why are you using this graph that says the current value of bitcoin is at $200? It's at $900, which makes the total market cap MUCH closer to Paypal and Credit card processors. Whether it compete in handling the volume of transactions that they perform is another question.

He most likely used few years old chart. So then not only Bitcoin data are false, but also Paypal, And credit card data are false.

Actually went to check and Paypal marketcap is 47B and Mastercard marketcap is 115B

Getting closer to the first sell off...

I thought that was what happened this past summer when it went down under $600.

I'd say the plays below 1100, at least referring to previous historical patterns, in the current cycle have all just been posturing and recharging during the long bear mkt since 2013. Once we break previous athletic of 1100-1200 then the possibility of the next real bull run opens up. Likely after reaching previous athletic price range there will be a dip/ resistance, and then perhaps (possibly to some degree network capacity improvement dependant, although higher mkt cap increases incentive for dev and speeds it up.) then we may see the next major bull run.
Who knows what it'll look like now that it's a more mainstream run and there are banking crises occuring and currency crises looming. The first half of next year, heck the next few years, are sure to be interesting. It'll be nice to see alts rise too, esp with increased interest, new investors and institutions.

We are definitely at the "new paradigm"/ "bulltrap" area.
Price will dip a few dollars back to around $900 or just below and everyone will panic, start selling coins, and then the FUD trolls can come out from their rocks to tell us how
"China is manipulating the price of Bitcoin", "the bubble is about to burst sell your coins" etc etc....  ;D

I would say after media attention and before enthusiasm.... maybe even between enthusiasm and greed.

Doubt we're gonna see a 3x or more rise from here... delusion - new paradigm will probably be a couple hundred above ATH ~$1500

I think right now it's fairly safe to assume that we are much closer to greed than enthusiasm. Nothing goes only up in value without experiencing a decent sized correction before that. Everything that happens now is pure greed driven, where people seriously think there is much more to gain than we have been gaining in the last days. Either keep holding to see where we are heading to, or secure profits. Buying right now is something I don't think is worth the risk since the little room for profit from current levels.

i strongly disagree with this chart what you imply here.
first of all we are not at the end of that line that your chart ends. we have returned to the mean (dashed line) and we have been there for a while now if you look at a bitcoin chart and then the situation right now is nothing like 2013 and we are far off from it. because the mean has gone up, so the top if you want to look at them similarly is also higher somewhere above $2000 and we get there then you are right we are back to 2013 bubble.

I am undecided if we are on a phase of a first sellout or a stage just before the media attention. All we have to do is wait and see. We are in a momentum stage that even on a our forum people ask about the advertisement of the bitcoin. So, the moods are close to shoot up the price even further.

We are not even in the first bear trap yet. I think the bear trap will come once we get near 1000, people is stupid and prone to psychological numbers like 1000 because they are too round and "nice", so they will think selling it's a good idea. It is obviously a bear trap, then we start going up again, then we get media attention and we hit 10k.

I'm thinking this as well.Right now, of this actual run, we probably see the first sell off hapening at the moment.Between $950 and $1000 we may see the bear trap before really breaking out to new all time highs.
But to be honest I don't care that much about such things as I plan to hold my stash of BTC for many many more years.Therefore the short to mid term ups and downs aren't that much important to me.

I dunno guys... there already seems to be a lot of:

- Media attention

- Enthusiasm

- Greed


So we are definitely past those phases

we are still at enthusiasm for me, return to the mean would be the current price, we will go much higher first

1300-2500$ looks a difficult price to reach in a short time period. This time breaking of $1000 might take place due to the increased use and rotational cycle of bitcoin among traders and users because of panic selling will help break the barrier else $950 will be the maximum peak now.

Precisely!

Breaking $1k would make the mainstream news and likely cause a snowball effect of new money coming into bitcoin
a feeding frenzy that would surely take us to a new ATH ....

https://bit4coin.net/bitcoin-photo-contest/uploads/photo/image/262/desktop_3D__157_.jpg

in 2013 bitcoin price in the highest price until reach 1000 dollar/bitcoin
this now bitcoin price run to 1000 dollar gan, in the highest price
after bitcoin price reach 1000 dollar/bitcoin can down again

Hmm, using this graphic picture as reference, I would say we are in the "Mania Phase", at the beginning of this phase or at the end of "Awareness Phase". BTC doesn't have media attention yet (only alternative medias on the internet), there isn't much public adoption (few people in the world use BTC yet), if things continue this way, many more people will have interest on the coin, making us reach to the "Enthusiasm" event. Considering this, Bitcoin has a prosperous future yet, we are just starting, in my opinon, we are safe for now.  ;)

It's too early, I thought we still at Awareness phase where institutional investors and several region public users are joining in.
If we get media attention (not only alternative media), that would be in the next 2-3 years when the price has set stable price at least at $2000 and not drop back (fluctuate is normal). We are heading to bear trap which many, many users already intended to sell out when the price hit $1k point.

I can see a certain level of enthusiasm,  especially in newcomers. But of course old bitcoiners still keep in mind the events of November-December 2013 and are much more cautious than new bitcoiners. Even I could say that serious bitcoiners don't have too great expectations about a definitive pump to sky.

Garrhhhh!!!  We don't have to be anywhere on that little infograph.  But I don't know if institutional money is coming in or has already started to come in.  I don't think so, because we'd be at a much higher price than we're at now.  Bitcoin is still only like a $12bn market, which is nothing in the world of finance. 

I'm not saying that graph doesn't represent markets, but if it did, we'd be past the bubble stage.  We got through that and rebounded nicely.  I'm hoping we're not entering another bubble.  :(

Lol, yes. Still price value of the Bitcoin moving with the continuous pump from last to now. In between we had halving pump which pushed Bitcoin value more than 50% percent. Now price moving up for Christmas pump.

again another topic comparing bitcoin of 2016 with bitcoin of 2013 :|
things are nothing like 2013, if they were, price would have been $3000 by now and not struggling at $870 price.
if back then there were 10 whales not there are 100 :)

Yes there are many significant differences for current rally from 2013. In my understanding 2013 was a pure pump but now it seems prices are moving with reason like with strong adoptions. A steady raise is always a preferred one and that is alone happening right now.

But in my understanding the number of whales will get diminished over time as only early massive adopters might be classified as whales. Massive adoptions with current price levels will not be possible for many people.

a million dollars isnt much to some people and it can still buy well over 1000 btc so yes ,people can still become whales fairly easily .......provided theyre already wealthy in fiat its easy

Now conditions are totally different this time it moving with strong growth and have wider adoptions around the world with good media attention. Agreed with you it's not fair to make compare things with 2013 for this growth.

i had to double check the date of this topic to make sure it was created recently ;D

dude you are more than a year late to post this image and say "where we are!" because the peek is the $1200 and the despair is the $200 and more than a year has past since we were at that point. and in all that time until now we are on a very nice and stable price rise.

We are at "Return to mean". We haven't started a new cycle yet because the media are ignoring bitcoin's recent rise.

It is true that fiat wealthy person can buy more bitcoins and become whale in bitcoin also and even can manipulate the price, and the same what i thought of sentiment price of $1000 not reaching due to fear from low traders of who started to take profit from $940 itself and now the price is roaming in $880 range.

if we want to manipulate the price of bitcoin, we need a lot of fiat money. I think bitcoin might not be manipulated by one person only. bitcoin move for their manipulation of the user community bitcoin. a large community of course is able to moving the price of bitcoin.

probably we are still on the "first sell off" phase.. or most probably we have just finished it..

if there was a price correction phase, then we are there, not sure in that graph where we are exactly, but the price is indeed finding its place now, i would wait for now to see how the situation will go before making another move, the market is stabilizing for me

http://www.gratisbitco.in/we-are-here.jpg

April 2013 high was at approx. $250
Dec 2013 high was at approx. $1150

So that's an increase from top to top of 460%.

If the next bubble pops at 460% of the last top, we will see a top of $5290 a bitcoin.

http://www.gratisbitco.in/we-are-here2.jpg

We're not even half way up yet!  ;D

Remember that the big crash we previously witnessed was heavily influenced by what happened at Gox.
The next big correction/crash probably won't be anywhere near as volatile.

gentlemen ,always be calm
do not let yourselves become weak hands
10k is approaching ,all you have to do is hodl and if someone wants to know how you
you can retire so young ,then tell them  ;)

I think $10,000 is definitely possible at some point. However, fluctuation is common with bitcoin so we could see some corrections in price before then.

I agree, but the uprun won't be as volatile, too. Liquidity is higher now and it's more difficult to do that crazy price jumps like in 2013. I think we will see some new ATHs still until July, but I disagree with the graph posted by GratisBitcoin that said that we are now sitting at ~300-400 - for me, we're between 700 and 800. We're in the "Greed" phase.

I wouldn't wonder if the ATH for 2017 was just under 2000 USD (~1950-1970). That's where I sure would take profits.

Well in terms of the rise it all depends on the circumstences.
Imagine a scenario where will find consenses, SegWit gets activated and all the money from altcoins suddenly fomos into Bitcoin.
This would create a massive bubble! I'm not saying that'll happen but it is one of the possibilities.

For this year aiming $2000 is realistic and not too much. I also agree that this could a be psychological barrier which may need a few attempts to break through. Let's hope for the best!

first sell off

While the crash was heavily influenced by Mt Gox you cannot deny the rise in price was heavily influenced by Mt Gox too, this tells me we need to avoid having an exchange that big since they can do anything to the price and then when they eventually fall, they will crash the price of bitcoin.

MtGox manipulation was the main reason, but at that time the media was all over the world heavily reporting about Bitcoin breaking through record after record. It resulted in a major interest peak, where people were just yolo buying themselves into Bitcoin in the hope that it would go up to $2000 and far beyond that level. Currently we are having several major exchanges, which is something we can definitely be happy with. It's not a one man's show anymore.

Probably, we are still on the "first sell off" phase. If we want to maneuver the price of bitcoin, we are all need a lot of fiat money. But I ponder bitcoin might not be maneuver by one person only. A large community of course is proficient for moving the outlay of cryptocurrency. Well, in term of the upswing? It all depends on the instances.

Think I was pretty accurate.  :)