Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: dscotese on April 10, 2013, 10:54:32 PM



Title: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: dscotese on April 10, 2013, 10:54:32 PM
This is not a crash.  The price was never over 100 until less than 2 weeks ago.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: jojo69 on April 10, 2013, 10:55:59 PM
it ain't over yet

hang on


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: bassclef on April 10, 2013, 10:56:13 PM
agreed. think long term people!


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: bonker on April 10, 2013, 10:56:53 PM
I'm buying here... easy money for The Bonker


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: NamelessOne on April 10, 2013, 10:58:07 PM
This is not a crash.  The price was never over 100 until less than 2 weeks ago.
Yes, two weeks without any kind of meaningful correction. Relief was needed. I would have personally enjoyed it going to the 300-400 range first, but hey, I made a ton of extra coins on this.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: dave111223 on April 10, 2013, 10:59:14 PM
Man I wish I had some fiat on the exchange.  $105 I'll pay that all day.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: jojo69 on April 10, 2013, 11:01:29 PM
Man I wish I had some fiat on the exchange.  $105 I'll pay that all day.

except Gox was lagging 2500 seconds and you couldn't get a trade in


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: just1nmc on April 10, 2013, 11:04:01 PM
Man I wish I had some fiat on the exchange.  $105 I'll pay that all day.

except Gox was lagging 2500 seconds and you couldn't get a trade in

My bid at $106 took 70 minutes to open, and I just barely got coins out of it


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: marhjan on April 10, 2013, 11:11:31 PM
Man I wish I had some fiat on the exchange.  $105 I'll pay that all day.

No need to buy until double digits at least - this is a classic bull trap


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: dscotese on April 10, 2013, 11:20:07 PM
Man I wish I had some fiat on the exchange.  $105 I'll pay that all day.

No need to buy until double digits at least - this is a classic bull trap
I might agree, but I have to think about it some more.

There are two other days with just about the exact same volume according to Clark Moody (http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/widget/chart/), 1/24 and 3/12.  If a significant portion of that volume was from a coherent group of cooperating traders, they made out like bandits.  And that would mean it is over.  Settle at 145 and then resume its normal appreciation.

Exciting!


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: protokol on April 10, 2013, 11:28:40 PM
With my mind set on holding indefinitely all evening, I finally cracked during the second dip and sold at $170 per BTC - just enough to cover my initial fiat buy-in, and I've still got a few BTC in a wallet. phew.

Could have gone better, could have gone a lot worse... I couldn't face the possibility of waking up tomorrow with BTC price scarily low, especially considering the state of my real life bank account which is overdrawn by about 1k GBP after building a mining rig the other day.

I'm now gonna treat myself to a valium, sleep for 4 hours and re-assess tomorrow morning before work at 6am, haha, what a night :D


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: boscorocks on April 10, 2013, 11:30:04 PM
it ain't over yet

hang on

It is shocking to think that the million dollar pizza became the 2.6 million dollar pizza and then back down to the million dollar one again in such a short time.

Nope not even over ..holding on for the half a billion dollar pizza.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: donnyw on April 10, 2013, 11:41:15 PM
Mtgox is acting like crazy now, price goes down to near $100 and shoot up to $180 in just minutes!
How do we catch this wild animal in time?


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: DutchBrat on April 10, 2013, 11:43:31 PM
Depends on the exchange.... On Bitstamp the low was $70.... And then it shot back up to $195, only to fall back to $110 again

Volatility..... Where?


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: Monster Tent on April 10, 2013, 11:46:54 PM
There is no way to tell what the real btc price is with such lag better to wait it out  :P


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: Francesco on April 11, 2013, 12:13:07 AM
I am quite surprised, I must say. I was betting the panic would drive us much lower. Now of course there will be some recovery -bull trap or not, time will tell. If it starts growing again, we will see 1000$ soon -and maybe stay there, after some bumps.

What's holding me back is the example of history: after the first bubble, there was a long, although bumpy, decline. But maybe the community is stronger now, and it will be different?
However, I am not so sure about the idea "the community", etc. Of course all this money didn't come all of a sudden from experienced bitcoiners, it's new people bringing their money in. Will they stay after having been burnt, or will too many give up?


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: proudhon on April 11, 2013, 12:24:35 AM
I am quite surprised, I must say. I was betting the panic would drive us much lower. Now of course there will be some recovery -bull trap or not, time will tell. If it starts growing again, we will see 1000$ soon -and maybe stay there, after some bumps.

What's holding me back is the example of history: after the first bubble, there was a long, although bumpy, decline. But maybe the community is stronger now, and it will be different?
However, I am not so sure about the idea "the community", etc. Of course all this money didn't come all of a sudden from experienced bitcoiners, it's new people bringing their money in. Will they stay after having been burnt, or will too many give up?

Enough people are going to give up to pull the price down for a long time.  Why do I think that?  Because I think a lot (probably most) of the people who pushed the price of over the past few months were simply playing a get rich quick game and not joining a movement to create a new financial infrastructure.  Those people are not going to stick around on the hope that their "temporary" losses will subsidize the persistence of the protocol.  They're going to limp away, dragging as much money as they can back out of the system to minimize their losses.

Today isn't some temporary little glitch.  Today is the beginning of another long depressing period in the history of bitcoin.  There's really no question about whether we're going down from here -- we are.  The question is really whether so many people were burned, so spectacularly, and so publicly in the news, that the world can decide with a high enough level of confidence that this is a neat, but ultimately practically impossible financial structure for even a moderate sized economy.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: bitcon on April 11, 2013, 01:43:34 AM
Man I wish I had some fiat on the exchange.  $105 I'll pay that all day.

except Gox was lagging 2500 seconds and you couldn't get a trade in


thats why you always put your bid order in before the sh!t hits the fan. i learned this lesson last time gox got DDoSed.   only fvck up was i bid too high, but oh well, after the re-correction i'll still come out ahead.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: XXthetimeisnowXX on April 11, 2013, 02:31:59 AM
Mtgox is acting like crazy now, price goes down to near $100 and shoot up to $180 in just minutes!
How do we catch this wild animal in time?

get out of gox!  i use bitstamp cuz it follows mt gox, sometimes by ten to twenty. so i know when to buy and when to sell and ive only seen it sorrta down (crash) once ....that was today when the noobs wanted to cash out. i sold a few at the midd but kept 90%of my coins. clonipin and wine help the nervs and the mind...took a deep breath a realized that just a few short weeks ago i was jumping with joy at the top of 100 so this thing could and has reched 260 and it will again maybe faster maybe slower but it will.

marketplace money dicused it today on the air. good/bad press is still press and more and more people will wake up to bitcoins and more and more money will flow in. 260 will be cheep coins in a couple of months. just saying.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: HappyBitCoinUser on April 11, 2013, 02:36:14 AM
Man I wish I had some fiat on the exchange.  $105 I'll pay that all day.

except Gox was lagging 2500 seconds and you couldn't get a trade in


thats why you always put your bid order in before the sh!t hits the fan. i learned this lesson last time gox got DDoSed.   only fvck up was i bid too high, but oh well, after the re-correction i'll still come out ahead.

I just made a bid to buy as much BTC as I can for $0.05 so I'm hoping it bottoms out, then any bounce back to $100 would make me Billionaire!


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: Wuji on April 11, 2013, 03:28:12 AM
There is some strange magic in numbers for people even though mathematically it means little.  $100 is probably a false bottom in a lot of people's minds right now.  If it hits $99 tomorrow then that will change and it may drop to $50 in an hour.  None of this matters when there is a high of $266 and low of $105 in one day.  If this doesn't show you speculation and an unstable currency well I'm not sure how you read the forums with a blindfold on.  Currency should never fluctuate like that in a day.  I have no idea how anyone was able to buy or sell anything using BTC today.  It needs to establish itself and maintain a steady price increasing or decreasing very slowly before anyone will take it seriously.  If it wasn't risky and speculation and was meant to be worth $1000 it would be, end of story.  No one could manipulate the price.  Now that the bubble popped and the price looks like someone on a bungie cord I hope we can get real and people will stop posting from LA-LA land.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: Crypt_Current on April 11, 2013, 03:34:51 AM
There is some strange magic in numbers for people even though mathematically it means little.  $100 is probably a false bottom in a lot of people's minds right now.  If it hits $99 tomorrow then that will change and it may drop to $50 in an hour.  None of this matters when there is a high of $266 and low of $105 in one day.  If this doesn't show you speculation and an unstable currency well I'm not sure how you read the forums with a blindfold on.  Currency should never fluctuate like that in a day.  I have no idea how anyone was able to buy or sell anything using BTC today.  It needs to establish itself and maintain a steady price increasing or decreasing very slowly before anyone will take it seriously.  If it wasn't risky and speculation and was meant to be worth $1000 it would be, end of story.  No one could manipulate the price.  Now that the bubble popped and the price looks like someone on a bungie cord I hope we can get real and people will stop posting from LA-LA land.

It's more a commodity than a currency right now, while there's still a block reward.  When transaction fees start paying for mining, my theory is that this will be the same time period where the store of value becomes less emphasized and the utility of the good more so.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: mp420 on April 11, 2013, 03:37:29 AM
It will go lower, if this was the top. And while I can't be sure it certainly seems that we peaked yesterday and we'll see a long downtrend now.

I sold part of my BTC at $192. Might buy back some, but then again I now have an amount of liquid fiat that I've very seldom had in my hands.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: bitcoinBull on April 11, 2013, 03:38:04 AM
There is some strange magic in numbers for people even though mathematically it means little.  $100 is probably a false bottom in a lot of people's minds right now.  If it hits $99 tomorrow then that will change and it may drop to $50 in an hour.  None of this matters when there is a high of $266 and low of $105 in one day.  If this doesn't show you speculation and an unstable currency well I'm not sure how you read the forums with a blindfold on.  Currency should never fluctuate like that in a day.  I have no idea how anyone was able to buy or sell anything using BTC today.  It needs to establish itself and maintain a steady price increasing or decreasing very slowly before anyone will take it seriously.  If it wasn't risky and speculation and was meant to be worth $1000 it would be, end of story.  No one could manipulate the price.  Now that the bubble popped and the price looks like someone on a bungie cord I hope we can get real and people will stop posting from LA-LA land.

Look, just because it can be compared to a "currency", doesn't mean that it should never fluctuate. Maybe fluctuating is exactly what its supposed to do. Look at price history, it speaks for itself. Bitcoin price will probably never be stable. But that's exactly how I like it, because I know the long-term trend is up.

Its more like silver or gold. A precious peer-to-peer electronic asset/commodity. Its the speculative vehicle of the future. Not your grandma's e-currency.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: bitcoinBull on April 11, 2013, 04:08:55 AM
Currency should never fluctuate like that in a day. It needs to establish itself and maintain a steady price increasing or decreasing very slowly before anyone will take it seriously.  If it wasn't risky and speculation and was meant to be worth $1000 it would be, end of story.  No one could manipulate the price.
Bitcoin has no barrier to entry. Nothing stops the fiat rich from playing Bitcoin like a fiddle. I'm sure what we've recently experienced is just a few millionaires having fun, we haven't even seen the real whales yet.

Do not expect stability in the Bitcoin exchange rate for years. In fact, these people can pretty much play with anything they want, housing markets, economies of entire countries, et cetera.

When you say "currency should never fluctuate like that in a day" how do you propose we design a voluntary currency with no barriers to entry in order to prevent the insanely rich from playing with it like a cat with a mouse?

+1. There is no asset safe from the greedy tentacles of global finance, from the madness of crowds. We will have corrections and we will have crashes. You can design the protocol for the blockchain, but look around at the state of global economics. There are no experts who can engineer efficient price price discovery, in any market. It is what is it, love it or hate it.

I have learned to love it. Be patient, don't panic (not to buy or to sell), and you will be rewarded.


Title: Re: 105 was the LOW???
Post by: Francesco on April 11, 2013, 10:17:00 AM
Currency should never fluctuate like that in a day. It needs to establish itself and maintain a steady price increasing or decreasing very slowly before anyone will take it seriously.  If it wasn't risky and speculation and was meant to be worth $1000 it would be, end of story.  No one could manipulate the price.
Bitcoin has no barrier to entry. Nothing stops the fiat rich from playing Bitcoin like a fiddle. I'm sure what we've recently experienced is just a few millionaires having fun, we haven't even seen the real whales yet.

Do not expect stability in the Bitcoin exchange rate for years. In fact, these people can pretty much play with anything they want, housing markets, economies of entire countries, et cetera.

When you say "currency should never fluctuate like that in a day" how do you propose we design a voluntary currency with no barriers to entry in order to prevent the insanely rich from playing with it like a cat with a mouse?

+1. There is no asset safe from the greedy tentacles of global finance, from the madness of crowds. We will have corrections and we will have crashes. You can design the protocol for the blockchain, but look around at the state of global economics. There are no experts who can engineer efficient price price discovery, in any market. It is what is it, love it or hate it.

I have learned to love it. Be patient, don't panic (not to buy or to sell), and you will be rewarded.

The safety lays in reality. If they toyed with some financial asset, like shares or bonds, they really couldn't make them double -not in such a short time, at least. Same with currencies. Of course they play with currencies, bonds, shares. But no one will buy a company double the price it was next month -it has foundamentals which prevent it from being vaued too high (or too low). Same with a nation's currency. Bitcoin is one of the few things in the world that is purely speculative -and thus vulnerable. It won't be any more only as soon as real world trades will gratly overpower speculators -not only the big ones, but the crowd they manipulate as well.