Bitcoin Forum

There is a long standing pole I started over in the economics section: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113606.0
Please vote/ update your vote - comment.

I am wanting to share the users market sentiment, also - please read the OP (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113606.0) as there is a lot about Bitcoin there what I think is bullish.

Statistically 15% of total users are classified as Early Adopters, my question is how do you see yourself in a bigger picture?


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d3/Technology-Adoption-Lifecycle.png/800px-Technology-Adoption-Lifecycle.png

Full adoption means 9 billion customers, so the peak is of that curve is at 4.5 billion users. We're still far to the left on that chart.

the Gartner Hype Cycle , is about hype What is happening today in Bitcoin, the Technology adoption lifecycle is about  Diffusion of Innovations. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations) and adoption over time.

9 million is a possible scenario I'll call it an optimistic one.
But if new users stop joining the Bitcoin economy today we would have total adoption, and when analysing all the users, they would roughly fit that curve, with most of the benefit going to the first 30% of adopters.   

My thought is Bitcoin is growing and as it grows so should the value, statistically speaking, Innovators Early Adaptors and some early majority generally benefit disproportionately to  the late Majority and Laggards. 

Given where we are in the Hype Cycle, is there value that will cause early adopters to buy in to the Bitcoin economy?

Bitcoin is never going to be adopted because it's volatility de-legitimises it as a currency. All you are currently doing is trading coins between each other while screaming "UP UP UP" before it crashes again.