Bitcoin Forum

After the artificially fixed prices of the last 2 days, we are now trading quite positively due to traders and speculators returning to their seats after the closedown of the mtgox bourse earlier today. Prices are trending over $130 USD and may either rise or fall. Does anyone have a good take on this? I'd like to know what people think will happen next, what are the market factors in play at the present minute?..

Most likely, there will be more volatility and then it will settle and start to trend downwards just like the last bubble in 2011.   But it probably won't go back down to $10...probably more like $25 to $40.  Then the wait until the next bubble.

I would looking at the charts where there was flash crashes at the blockchain fork.  And how quickly that rebounded.

Take the exchanges out of the equation, and that is the only real data point for the Bitcoin architecture to go by.

The exchange problem is a temporary problem.  The bitcoin community will solve it with a decentralized exchange.  Once that is removed the price will reflect the fundamental value.

Think about this:

Western Union has a market cap over 8 billion.  8 billion for an antiquated system.  What do you think the market cap of Bitcoin should be?

Well above that.  Once Bitcoin usage is anything close to Western Union, by that metric along Bitcoin should be well over $800 per coin (likely a lot more).

But it can't get there with the current constraint of the money flowing in (mtgox).  We need a decentralized exchange!

QFT

Yes, we all know exactly what's going to happen, we're just not telling you.

in the next hours, there will be people who bought during the bubble realizing they don't know bitcoin and they don't know trading.  they will be selling, no matter the price.

those that don't are following the psychology that finds that unsophisticated traders don't like to take losses.  so many will sell as soon as they can break even.  every time bitcoin hits a new high up since dropping to the $65 low there will be resistance from those who bought at that level.    so don't expect a run back up to $250 without being matched by heavy sell orders each step of the way.

but it is going there.  

the keynesians and others affiliated with the media may be pleased with a price crash and do everything they can to make the most of it.  but remember, the exchange rate was $13 something at the beginning of the year and thirty something at the end of february.   so even at $60 that's still up 350% or something like that.  this selloff will settle at some base before resuming the day-to-day ascent.  because bitcoin's supply is limited while its demand can keep growing, that rise will come and will attract short term speculators once again.   just it will be slower next time.

Sorry OP, but he's right.  You're the only man out.  It's not that we don't like you...

I'm hoping some people on the fence will see BTC prices still reading around $100 and not panic sell, which would stabilize the price somewhat and we can get back to using it for commerce as intended, but time will tell. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see it around $15 in the morning.

I think your estimate is pretty much correct, except that I would say it is still a little bit on the high side. My estimate for the low point is $20, but I would not be surprised at all to see single digits later this year or next.

After the 2011 bubble I get this feeling that, unlike more mature markets, bitcoin is attracting newbies so fast that the decline after a price bubble turns into the run-up to the next bubble already before its base value is actually reached.

People have not learned from the 2011 bubble. Will they learn from the 2013 bubble? On Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays I tend to think that they never learn, but then I will get rich. :)

if we knew where it was going to be, we wouldn't be sitting on a forum, we'd be sitting on a yacht in the tropics.

Of course! We all do! Haven't you read the rest of the threads in the speculation forum? Every knows exactly what's going to happen next. Just give it a look, and you will know exactly what you should do next.

To really answer the question, yes, some do know.

Those who don't give those who do their money.

its going UP yes ITS OFFICIAL now

fundamentals are support strong
fibonacci retracement holding out on the TA charts

BUY or regret later (again)

76 is my call

Short-term: down (up-down-up-down)
Mid-term: up
Long-term: up (up and away)

That's my numberless and amateur prediction.

hihi up down up these words are so funny up down hihihihi

Your prediction is better than most.

You forgot: Very long-term: zero.

Nothing lives forever, and bitcoin, unfortunately, can also die a sudden death for various reasons. One of these reasons could be some hypothetical bitcoin 2 that comes along, is better, and steals the show.

UP! Its already happening .

Of course perhaps you're right but there's plenty of fun to be had along the way!

100$/BTC today.

this thread is like walking through a madhouse. you're delusional if you think today's candle is going to be green.

But look at all the "cheap" coins!!!!! BUY BUY BUY!

Slow slide to singles.

To 20 bucks. Or so.

Up to $300 this year.

http://s21.postimg.org/mlzhbqyef/pvtpostmortem.png

-===-

if anything, the bitcoin market is more efficient now.

we shed 80% of the inflated price in 3 days. this price collapse is unprecedented in bitcoin history with the exception of the 90+% collapse of the June bubble, but that occurred over many months. in that way this is the single largest collapse in bitcoin history.

of course, it was necessary. i think reddit is largely to blame here, judging by the explosion in the subscriber base to /r/bitcoin and because the rally was already showing signs of exhaustion around $40 -- it was a bubble on top of a bubble.

we were enjoying 'sustainable exponential growth' (linear on a log graph) before the price went parabolic above $40, and then immediately corrected. this led into a long period of triangular consolidation that brokeout strongly UP, sparking the continuation of the parabolic move. at this point our fates were sealed.


the good news is...

...that we've already reached an important support/resistance in the Price-Volume Trend. right now we are about 50% higher than the most recent low of $50, suggesting that the ratio of buying to selling pressure may be reaching a critical point. this could yield a short period of sideways consolidation before another large move, likely down, but there are also alternate scenarios. the support pictured above suggests that if we consolidate for any significant amount of time (i.e. if we enter a long period of low volatility like we saw in the April-June period of last year) it would be very bullish indeed.

Yes, down.

above 100 next week no doubt, so many ppl want to get in, this is their chance, maybe the last one for 2 digits, BIG IF, gox do not fuck us over again.

It looks as if we are headed for a major bull trap. So buying now may not be such a bad idea.

However, buying in a market that is generally headed downward is risky.

No risk, no fun. :)

Nope!

https://i.imgur.com/NOrpKO5.png

There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing!

Looks like consolidation and accumulation here... someone trading these things knows what they are doing.