Bitcoin Forum

Doesn't look quite so bad on a 3 month log chart

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/20130411-3-month-log-chart.png?w=650

The red arrow indicates the peak of course, but also the moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in.

if it goes up (and over previous high somewhen in not too far future) from here you may call it so ...  ;)

::)

Because you made the steep channel x width to accommodate for the peak.

I'll see you all at $15/btc in about 2 months.

Time will tell. If it is then this is a darn good moment to pick up some cheap bitcoins. :)

Price i still finding its equilibrium after Gox reopening. But I don't see anything pointing for it to go up...

I drew in a parallel to the channel equal distance under the old channel out of curiosity to see if there might have been support there. It doesn't have much significance, just testing ideas.

I'm looking for support near the bottom of the previous channel at the moment, or failing that then the original channel. If we can stay above that, then the bull run still looks intact.

Would be the other way round wouldn't it? "Perhaps my pipi isn't really as big as I thought"

Sorry to repeat myself:

$83 or so was on March 23rd an inflection point where we kicked into a higher rate of exponential growth.

This is where things got unsustainable and people started screaming "Bubble!" or if they were doing so already, shouting it even louder.

If we see the price dip and gravitate loosely around this point in the next few days we would be on a previous upward trend which stretched from Jan 9th to March 23rd and to some degree, beyond.

Bear in mind we are seeing a decent-sized bid wall at $76 and that the ask wall isn't so much a wall as a gentle ramp.

Pick your entry point, gird your loins and ride this up.

That's exactly what I was thinking the whole time. I just missed my exit point, because I predicted it at 400-600. Now, all I can do is hold ;).

We're now at the bottom of the least steep trendchannel, correct? Let's hope for a strong rebound :)

I can't get the chart site working, bad gateway, timeouts etc, so hard to know what the price is just now, Clark Moody site says it dipped down to $55, but now is around $70?

If thats the case looks like we fell below the bottom of the least steep trend line. Which isn't good from the bullish perspective. But factoring in that MtGox has totally screwed up by closing 'to let the market cool down' and the height from which we fell might allow a little overshoot. If we can get back into the first exponential channel I'd be thinking the bull run might yet be intact.

Updated chart

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/20130412-3-month-log-chart.png

Down to the last trend line. Although we've overshot below that one too, looks like price is trying to find support there, will it succeed?

Way to draw support lines exactly as they fit you.

Yeah, Im going to disagree...it looks pretty bad on that chart too.

It does look "pretty bad."

But it doesn't look like the end of the world (or even Bitcoin).

The fact of the matter is that the growth before was unsustainable in the short term. Bitcoin didn't get screwed, I did (and people that bought in the $200s even more so).

I've been saying forever that the price was unsustainable, but the true believers around here shouted me down constantly.  Now I think we are going to slide all the way down to singles before we see a real recovery.

Definitely not the end of btc (speculators and true believers will make sure of that) but Im pretty sure this run is done for a while.

Great minds think alike ;)

I think we will simply return to exponential growth along the original channel OP described here earlier (the black channel). As I said in the original thread, whenever we start wafting above the top of the black channel, the price becomes sensitive to any old reason to crash back down into the channel. If we correct below the bottom of the channel it will be time to worry.

Until then, I'll be yawning like a pro.

You can't draw support / resistance lines on log scale charts. Try linear chart...
https://i.imgur.com/6ptfPLQ.jpg

stop spamming that worthless chart. it's taken completely out of context and has no predictive power.

also, why can't you draw trend lines on log scales?

THIS

Forgive me if I am being dense, but isn't the entire point of a log scale is to make trend lines drawable?

Thats where they fit the data. I drew that line in the same place all through February. Check my blog if you don't believe me  ???

I started off drawing my lines on linear scales but found they were only accurate for short time periods. Log scale works because the price rise is exponential.

Actually most investors I talk to were screaming Bubble based on the run up from Jan to Mar. 17th (after that they were just saying tulips).  They are interested in tangible commodities and not virtual commodities.  When BTC is adopted as a currency and passes the regulation litmus tests then I expect it to go sky high.  Until then I don't think most real investors are taking this seriously or even getting involved (none I have known for 10+ years are).  I only bought in below $14 a long time ago because I'm a computer guy and think it is a cool idea.

It helps with trends that rise exponentially, like Bitcoin. But no, that is not the entire point, nor is it really the basis of log charts.


You're chart may not prove anything in terms of future price (no one can?!), but what's certain is that you don't need to worry about responses from internet-children who can not see things that are blatantly apparent to everyone else  :D

I don't understand why people call this a crash. Somebody just had a lot of bit coin to fill a lot of pending orders. A thing of the sort has a different name.

Maybe the 75% drop in value within 2 days?

after an increase of 100% also in just some days?

why not ?

you could call it "crash" only in hindsight.
In this case, it must be the start of an large scale downward trend.


All these terms "correction", "dip", "crash" are qualitative to some extent: they express the relation to the whole context.
When a whole market segment performed just average over a long time and then with a single blow gets substantially reduced and then grinds down to a way lower category, than this is another situation as when a single stock, asset or instrument had a short period of completely out-of-range growth, and finishes this period with a set-back.

Don't tell anyone, but thats how bubbles work....

A linear line on a logarithmic chart is perfectly valid. It indicates a steady rise in value. The angle of the line corresponds to the growth rate.

The thing is that a "line" on a log scale is not a line or an angle, it is a curve.

everyone's yelling BULLTRAP, but the hands that are buying right know seem pretty damn strong. the big hands waited a long damn while (two-hundred and sixty-six USD? really?) the first time around, why not just pull the pump n dump again, immediately! anyone who wanted to sell already has, and those who are comfortable holding will continue doing so.

i thought bulltrap, too, but that ask depth is soooo thin and the price just keeps stepping up the staircase...

If it's linear, it has a rise over run. That angle corresponds to a specific constant growth rate.

I'm just trying to explain some math to the people that don't understand the significance of straight lines on log charts.

Really because the fundamental indicators are all increasing exponentially. Most relevantly the number of people who even know about Bitcoin, as well as those who have taken the time to learn about Bitcoin.