Bitcoin Forum

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same.  Discuss?  It certainly isn't people doing their xmas shopping with bitcoin.  Is it publicity related?  Is it silk road (or equivalent) related?  Is it Chinese money giving customs related? 

I also think it's strange that the price hike happened during Christmas with very little media coverage of the Rally.

Everyone cashing out so close to the new ATH is also interesting... Why would you sell so close to the ATH after Block Reward Halving during a much awaited Rally? It makes no sense to me.

These non-believers are about to get punished. Is 20% ROI really worth the risk when Bitcoin about those Moon-level returns?

Seems like some major players/forces are driving the price down for now knowing it's going to skyrocket.

I agree on you that we see spike on bitcoin price during end of every year but i don't think any of the reasons you have written down are the real reason for this spikes. One reason could be People/Whales manipulating market to grab quick profit with big pump and dump to spend on new year celebration  ;D

What bitcoin said is also my opinion about why spikes happen during the holiday seasons. I think it is only normal for these whales or manipulators to want to jave a quick profit so they can make use of these money in their celebration or atleast so they can start fresh with a good amount of profit with the coins that they are holding for the upcoming new year.

The only difference being it took them 1 month to inflate the value the first time and 1.5 years, the second.  In fact the recent growth seems to have started the previous December.

The simplest explanation is to conclude that it's merely coincidence. In the history of Bitcoin there have been spikes all around the year, not only the two you pay attention to.

The first spike was triggered by artificial buying of a trading bot at Mt.Gox anyway.

Bitcoin was just ready for a bull run.

I don't think there was any science to it, maybe it was due to the halving. A limited amount of coins on the exchanges as a result of the halving could have made the price increase.

I agree with you on this. It is unclear what's driving the bitcoin market's sharp price hike. Even golds did not have a spike during that time. Or maybe people are thinking that bticoin is the new gold now  ;D

the first spike was 2013 and then there were no spike in 2014, 2015 and now we saw one in 2016. there is not enough information to say there is any relationship between the two!

also the 2013 spike was a fake pump mostly by MtGox.
this spike was a tiny spike compared to 2013 and was only because $1000 was close and there was a mentality thing about this price. so again you can not compare these two.

It has been steadily growing for the last year (with a big spike at the 6 month mark) while people have been talking about the halving for ages now.  Why now?  People have got better things to do over xmas.  I just think it is a bit suspicious.  ;)

Price per bitcoin increases over $1000 within few days and got dumped really hard after crossing $1100 mark and nobody can find out real reason behind it.

Price get pumped = without any good news
Price get dumped = after yuan get stronger out of nowhere
Who is behind pumping = Chinese traders  ;)

I think Christmas&NewYear time is excellent to pump price of BTC because of the special mood that prevails among the people.The whales count on it and pump price,and when they are satisfied with the price dump is happening.This is a simple game that make big profit for small number of people.We expect a great price all year and this is the best time to sell us this miracle.

Who's behind it is less important,some have profited and others have lost-the game continues.

The first big spike was in June 2011. The second big spike was in March/April 2013. The June 2016 spike was larger percentage-wise than the December 2016 spike.

If anything, springtime in the northern hemisphere is a time for bigger spikes than December.

I don't think Xmas has anything to do with it. I think capital controls in places like India and China had more impact, just as Cyprus did in March 2013 and China did in autumn 2013 ( with a little help from Willy and Gox). The 2011 spike had more to do with publicity about the Silk Road and ensuing increased public awareness about Bitcoin.

It's not all about speculative trading trends. Sometimes it's the actual practical value of Bitcoin and adoption for practical reasons that moves the price.

I think it was just a time period and there was a pump too a lot of people bought it again and due to that it was rising to a high amount!!

There are some rumors now of the recent fall being inside trading by the chinese. If you monitor the social media, the price started falling before the announcement by the Chinese government was made.

http://www.coindesk.com/deja-vu-bitcoin-price-slips-900-amid-china-news/


An interesting theory. I think something strange happened. Yes the price was meant to correct, but too many coincidences. The damn chinese are playing games.

Bcs exactly it's Christmas and year's eve the price doing ups and downs ;) Bcs people have the mood to spend money in gifts and stuff like that of course it affects the price.

The reason why it spikes in December is because Santa Claus needs bitcoins to make presents for little children around the world. It's a beautiful thing. Just go with the flow.

in 2016 bitcoin price anomaly system
ussualy in end year bitcoin price can down
you can see in graffict and chart in year 2015
bitcoin price down in 24 december 2015 until in end year
same case in 2014 and 2013

I think Christmas had some effect for bitcoin's price. I even can imagine what effect will make Chinese New Year! There the number of users are the highest, so their new year just cannot bring any effect.

i also notice it that bitcoin always raising up when its end of the year and it suddenly big drop down after the year ends i think its part of the cycle of the bitcoin. thats why i already done exchanging my bitcoin to cash so i have a big money from it but when it reach 1200$ ive regret my cash out when its on 970$ because i didnt know that it would actually reach 1200$ .

I partly agree with you.

I get extremely angry with these pump and dump. They are destroying the coins


There are people who believe


https://cointelegraph.com/news/wyre-ceo-bitcoin-to-replace-gold-in-20-years-becoming-new-reserve-currency

Its true it can really go wrong with the bitcoin if it every time stays pumped and than dumped very annoying and its occurring more and more.

Ah, here is a thread I started last year asking why BTC always went up around xmas time.  I stand by my assertions.

And again it is the run up to christmas.  You telling me it is just a coincidence?

It’s just natural progression after the block reward halving. If something is useful & in demand if you literally half the supply of it (newly mined coins) then there are less coins available so the price goes up. Simple really & that’s what’s happening now. It just takes a while for the coins available on exchanges to dry up. Also less people sre selling because they know we’re at the start of a bull run.

ahead of Christmas there is usually a dump, but this year there is something different, because of the pandemic, many countries still choose to lock down, and this is a positive side for investors, that they will not withdraw money on a large scale, and this also happens in cryptocurrencies, I hope Bitcoin reaches $ 25k this year

Well I have my own theory as to why, first perhaps people how still have their jobs as of today will have their bonuses check obviously and might be putting aside a portion as an investment in BTC. Second, whales just pumping it up, and playing the market every season to make more money in this holiday.

But I would say though that it could be coincidence as well, we've been saying this as well every year, that the Chinese Lunar Year will also bring more money, but I have seen that it is not the case during 2018-19, maybe it was just we went on a bear market.

It's better not to read two much into it, you cannot really make a long term comparison based on only two data points - it could be a pattern or it could be totally random coincidence. There is a lot of money floating around right now because many governments around the world are trying to stave off a recession which would be very damaging and that money ends up pouring into  other assets - gold, property, stocks and now cryptocurrency.

well for USA players. Dec to Jan marks tax year .

So run up from 4k to 20 k in 2020 has happened. If you sell in Jan 2021 you dont have to file for a while say as late as oct 2022 for the year 2021.

so a december runup and a jan slump can happen due to big players.

along with the covid and the larger government  spending due to covid.

Its actually more to do with tax law and end of year accounting in various countries I think.     Also a general mood is determined mostly by the northern hemisphere and the seasons there, it doesn't have to run up into xmas but the end of 2020 is probably registering more universally then religious holidays not celebrated across the world though the main markets closed on certain days will have an effect, that isn't that many actual days.

I think its a mere coincidence of timing.  Bitcoin isn't seasonal nor are these markets, so rationally you have to just think its a coincidence.  It is strikingly odd though that this is a great time of year to buy(sell  ;)) crypto.

The first big spike was nowhere near Christmas.

Omitting earlier spikes where it went from pennies to almost a dollar and back down to a dime, the first really big spike was in 2011 when it went from under a dollar in February to over $30 in June.

The next big spike was in early 2013 when it went from around $10 in late 2012 to $266 in early April.

Even the next big spike in late 2013 peaked in November and had dropped to less than half its value before Christmas.

Try again.

Maybe related to bonus somehow? Usually there is a break before Christmas and you go back to work after Christmas, there are even some companies that gives a break at 23rd of December and starts back work on 2nd of January (even though number of these gets lower and lower everyday with probably only few family owned business' that does this nowadays) which means the bonus people get before the year ends could be spent on this.

Not saying they all do it, obviously most of them don't do it, but it is not your salary, you live by your salary, so this is an extra and non-calculated amount of money and you will definitely not spend that right away, or if you do spend it that is a wrong move, which means everyone will use that to invest into something which means some people will prefer bitcoin.

You are wrong Bitcoin is seasonal, so what happens now is never a mere coincidence and this is what always happens to the Bitcoin market during the Christmas season of the year Bitcoin had it halving. Meanwhile, a market correction will also happen a few hours before Christmas so buying now if you're not a day trade is not advisable.

I agree , also exactly like we saw in 2017 summer were bitcoin dump massively , lot of whales sold their earning to enjoy a happy holiday .
the rest of fish ( newbie traders ) got stuck with the market since then and that can happen again this year ..

JimboToronto already told you but it seems people are still focusing on just one spike and reading only the OP
Before the 2017 event, there were many others, think a bit, how did the price arrive at that point in the first place?
Read this:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/a-dazzling-history-of-bitcoins-ups-and-downs


It happened then and it happens now:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bitcoin-hits-record-20000
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/16/investing/bitcoin-price-milestone/index.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/12/16/bitcoin-just-smashed-through-20000-whats-next/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/all-aboard-the-billionaires-bitcoin-bandwagon/2020/12/16/528ff8fc-3fc9-11eb-b58b-1623f6267960_story.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-climbs-above-20-000-to-record-11608130696?mod=searchresults_pos2&page=1

The Guardian even has live coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/dec/17/bitcoin-shares-pound-markets-bank-of-england-us-stimulus-jobless-rally-business-live
But you actually have to read newspapers to see if newspapers talk about it.

As for the Chinese conspiracy, no, just no, not China again!!! Not again!!!!

That's why we need to be prepared for the upcoming possibilities so that we will not get stuck again the same on what happen on year 2017-2018. And we need to be vigilant even though the market doing good since we still need to rely on history and but hoping that the same scenario will not come and this year bitcoin will prosper to gather more huge pump since I believe if bitcoin can maintain it's current price until next year provably we will get another big adoption.

Speaking of China, I'll believe BTC replaces gold when the Chinese people and the central bank and similar other large entities then hold BTC as a global reserve to trade.   At the moment China has been buying gold and the largest producer of gold for decades in knowledge they need to buy so much they would spike the price so they distribute buying over time.   If somehow they see success of BTC and do similar with crypto then sure we can compare otherwise they are different and viewed differently by the largest buyers due to one being held physically and the other is security token with distributed confirmation required.

Other events besides a Christian festival and holidays to match price action has been a recent FED meeting for long term policy on dollar and QE programs.   Also even bigger I think is the fiscal budget of USA coming to a likely large spending program in light of their ongoing struggles and reduced employment especially in service industry, dollar weaker helps BTC and thats quite simple.   That idea is far greater then one national holiday as Dollar is the global reserve, not gold not anything else hence if its diluted we see higher prices appear and BTC is hot stock right now.

From my experience bitcoin usually has a bullish time in the months of Nov and Dec. Usually January happens to be a bearish month. The reason why is because people who made lots of capital gain profits are holding till New Years even so they can sell and realise profits in the new year.

The only time when Nov-Dec weren't bullish is 2018. And I think its because many people assumed that $6K support would hold and in Nov 2018, which is a time when bitcoin usually rallies, would do so. So they went into overlevereged positions and ended up crashing bitcoin all the way too $3K. I also think that the reason why it stops running on Dec 17th is because most funds managers just take time off and spend with family and they are done trading for the remainder of the year. Usually between Christmas Day and New Years there is very little volatility going on. Especially with stocks but some with crypto.

Every investor needs to be prepared for the possibility that may arise but I see the bull run market trend to continue till next year. However, the market correction will happen during the Christmas season which I believe is the last chance for investors to join the uptrend/ATH wagon until it the enormous market correction season.

No, this was happening well before anyone ever thought you may have to pay tax on your BTC.

I meant the big one where it hit $1K.  Not every spike, just the big ones.