Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Adrian-x on April 13, 2013, 05:02:18 AM



Title: .
Post by: Adrian-x on April 13, 2013, 05:02:18 AM
.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: niko on April 13, 2013, 06:21:26 AM
I saw the title of this thread, and got prepared for a shallow one-liner opening post. You got it all covered, however. I've got nothing to add. Thanks.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: Melbustus on April 13, 2013, 07:02:47 AM
I come back to eco-system development. MUCH more going on now, including global geo-political awareness, etc, VCs are getting their feet wet, infrastructure is being built out, we've got some bitcoin hedge funds, better security, (mostly) well understood best-practices for handling bitcoin as both a user and a business....

None of that was true in 2011. There was very little infrastructure base. The price was driven by the (in my opinion) correct analysis of bitcoin's phenomenal theoretical potential, but the ecosystem was incredibly thin. Yes, it's still absolutely in infancy now, but still amounts to much more of a solid core to support it in terms of mindshare, commitment, people, money, and services.

I'm maintaining a couple email chains about bitcoin now with dozens of people ranging from 20-something developers, to experienced VCs and entrepreneurs, to Wall St bankers. The level of serious, thoughtful, attention given to bitcoin now by a wider swath of people is great, and not to be under-appreciated.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: Gordonium on April 13, 2013, 08:02:04 AM
I come back to eco-system development. MUCH more going on now, including global geo-political awareness, etc, VCs are getting their feet wet, infrastructure is being built out, we've got some bitcoin hedge funds, better security, (mostly) well understood best-practices for handling bitcoin as both a user and a business....

None of that was true in 2011. There was very little infrastructure base. The price was driven by the (in my opinion) correct analysis of bitcoin's phenomenal theoretical potential, but the ecosystem was incredibly thin. Yes, it's still absolutely in infancy now, but still amounts to much more of a solid core to support it in terms of mindshare, commitment, people, money, and services.

I'm maintaining a couple email chains about bitcoin now with dozens of people ranging from 20-something developers, to experienced VCs and entrepreneurs, to Wall St bankers. The level of serious, thoughtful, attention given to bitcoin now by a wider swath of people is great, and not to be under-appreciated.

+1


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: evolve on April 13, 2013, 08:05:35 AM
The big difference between now and 2011?...a new group of suckers.


Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

What's old is new again.  ::)


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: Melbustus on April 13, 2013, 08:10:25 AM
The big difference between now and 2011?...a new group of suckers.


Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

What's old is new again.  ::)


Thanks for contributing.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: evolve on April 13, 2013, 08:11:38 AM
You're welcome.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: zby on April 13, 2013, 08:23:33 AM
Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

This is a new paradigm of financial bubbles!


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: sounds on April 13, 2013, 08:30:35 AM
Adrian-x: excellent post.

I admit, I was only lurking during the 2011 crash, so I can't speak with authority...

I think you're right about the increased trade volume. It is essential to finding the optimal exchange rate.

In 2011 there weren't enough bids (buys) and asks (sells) to meet the demand, so a relatively small number of coins made too much of a change in the price.

And that leads directly to the infrastructure problem: Gox claims they got flooded with the volume of orders. The infrastructure problems have their effect on the price. I think it would be better if the infrastructure scaled before the volume arrived, but I can understand that sometimes the growth is surprising or erratic.

But if Gox doesn't pick up the slack they're just leaving money on the table for someone else to take.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: smoothie on April 13, 2013, 09:02:23 AM
The big difference between now and 2011?...a new group of suckers.


Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

What's old is new again.  ::)

Says the guy who:

1. Has  bitcointalk forum account

2. Has  bitcoin address in his signature

hmm yes you can be a part of that vision too lol.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: Nikolaj06 on April 13, 2013, 09:57:42 AM
Very nice comparisons, however is it possible to slow down the GIF's? They are moving a tad too quick for me to properly use them without getting dizzy :b


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: AlgoSwan on April 13, 2013, 10:54:41 AM
A deja-vu all over again! Very cool charts and nearly identical twins.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: prof7bit on April 13, 2013, 11:35:46 AM
just plot it on a log sale and you can compare directly, thats what log scale was made for.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: niko on April 13, 2013, 02:48:45 PM
just plot it on a log sale and you can compare directly, thats what log scale was made for.

Yes. A percent scale would also be alright. Since we are only looking at ~10x change in price within the time span of interest, linear scale is not too badly distorted compared to the (more appropriate) log scale.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: evolve on April 14, 2013, 02:36:17 AM
Your warning is welcome, but keep in mind traders who have sold out, and are now talking the price down can play in the wall observer thread.
 

The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  ;) 

Edit: and the post above me shows why...


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: ElectricMucus on April 14, 2013, 02:39:03 AM
Your warning is welcome, but keep in mind traders who have sold out, and are now talking the price down can play in the wall observer thread.
 

The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  ;)  

Bitcoin: The only currency which can be brought down by forum posts.   ;D


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: evolve on April 14, 2013, 02:41:05 AM
Watch out people, I may post again and knock the price down another 75%... ;D


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: Qoheleth on April 14, 2013, 02:45:34 AM
The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  ;)  

Bitcoin: The only currency which can be brought down by forum posts.   ;D
One of my friends on another site only knows about Bitcoin because of Something Awful's old attempts to manipulate the price by posting hyperbolically on this forum. I wasn't around then, but said friend seemed to recall it being somewhat successful.

Hopefully we've put those days behind us!


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: ElectricMucus on April 14, 2013, 02:48:44 AM
The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  ;)  

Bitcoin: The only currency which can be brought down by forum posts.   ;D
One of my friends on another site only knows about Bitcoin because of Something Awful's old attempts to manipulate the price by posting hyperbolically on this forum. I wasn't around then, but said friend seemed to recall it being somewhat successful.

Hopefully we've put those days behind us!

That was hilarious, and it was a scapegoating which SA played very well.
btw: 4chan has started to make fun of us too.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: evolve on April 14, 2013, 02:51:37 AM
http://i45.tinypic.com/2moo8sw.png


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: adamstgBit on April 14, 2013, 02:55:09 AM
one key difference.

https://www.foodler.com/user/Bitcoin.do
This site did not accept know about bitcoin in 2011
It Just popped up today on thebitcinreview.com.

Food for thought!  :D


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: just1nmc on April 14, 2013, 03:11:08 AM
one key difference.

https://www.foodler.com/user/Bitcoin.do
This site did not accept know about bitcoin in 2011
It Just popped up today on thebitcinreview.com.

Food for thought!  :D

Ordered from it yesterday :)

6 places right by me.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: XXthetimeisnowXX on April 14, 2013, 05:36:28 AM
The big difference between now and 2011?...a new group of suckers.


Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

What's old is new again.  ::)

Says the guy who:

1. Has  bitcointalk forum account

2. Has  bitcoin address in his signature

hmm yes you can be a part of that vision too lol.

God damn it smoothie! you always say what I want to! haha. Smoothie FTW


so a bear that wants coins to drop to 10 no to 5 no to 1 no to 25 cents no to .00000001 no even lower. even though you have a bitcoin add as a signature, "hey give me your bitcoins so I can not make money off them". tell me mr bear at what point do you stop being a bear and become a bull? if its up to you they would be as worthless as a picture of a bear in a dollar bill? if your wish comes true then you will have to troll some other Internet sight.... does the DOW or S&P 500 have little forums dedicated to there cause? how adorable you would be in there, with your little avatar picture and your whitty contributions. and at the bottom you could have your stock account number so people can give you money or stocks for the stock you are complaining about. 


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: evolve on April 14, 2013, 06:13:05 AM
so a bear that wants coins to drop to 10 no to 5 no to 1 no to 25 cents no to .00000001 no even lower.

Is that what I want?

Please tell me more about how I feel about things, you obviously know me better than I know myself.  ::)



Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: AlgoSwan on April 14, 2013, 08:04:07 AM
one key difference.

https://www.foodler.com/user/Bitcoin.do
This site did not accept know about bitcoin in 2011
It Just popped up today on thebitcinreview.com.

Food for thought!  :D

Valid at all 12,041 Foodler restaurants!

Incredible!

You're feeding your family with your BTC mining rig.

Next possible move would be shelter and security.


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: just1nmc on April 14, 2013, 08:09:39 AM
one key difference.

https://www.foodler.com/user/Bitcoin.do
This site did not accept know about bitcoin in 2011
It Just popped up today on thebitcinreview.com.

Food for thought!  :D

Valid at all 12,041 Foodler restaurants!

Incredible!

You're feeding your family with your BTC mining rig.

Next possible move would be shelter and security.

Shelter is getting there :)

http://www.9flats.com (http://www.9flats.com)
https://www.aepropertymanage.com/index.html (https://www.aepropertymanage.com/index.html)
http://altamira21.com/inicio/ (http://altamira21.com/inicio/)
http://bitcoin.travel/listing-category/real-world-bitcoin-businesses/accommodation-bitcoin/ (http://bitcoin.travel/listing-category/real-world-bitcoin-businesses/accommodation-bitcoin/)


Title: Re: The Crash Then and Now - 2011 v 2013 how big are the differences?
Post by: Qoheleth on April 15, 2013, 07:01:17 PM
one key difference.

https://www.foodler.com/user/Bitcoin.do
This site did not accept know about bitcoin in 2011
It Just popped up today on thebitcinreview.com.

Food for thought!  :D

Valid at all 12,041 Foodler restaurants!

Incredible!

You're feeding your family with your BTC mining rig.

Next possible move would be shelter and security.

Shelter is getting there :)

http://www.9flats.com (http://www.9flats.com)
https://www.aepropertymanage.com/index.html (https://www.aepropertymanage.com/index.html)
http://altamira21.com/inicio/ (http://altamira21.com/inicio/)
http://bitcoin.travel/listing-category/real-world-bitcoin-businesses/accommodation-bitcoin/ (http://bitcoin.travel/listing-category/real-world-bitcoin-businesses/accommodation-bitcoin/)
I am quoting this post so that I can find it later.