Bitcoin Forum

After the May11 crash (33 to 2), I think the new floor is 80-100. Next plow forward will be 500-600.

Do you have any reasoning behind your prediction other than owning bitcoins? It would be helpful to include that in your post.

ha! market predictions don't need reason, because there is no such thing. "Reason" is bunch of crap the professional agencies conjure up to sound like they know what they are talking about (e.g., AAPL is still a buy at 700).

1) You don't know if I own bitcoins or not, that was an assumption. Therefore, you are making a prediction of your own.
2) I am a technical analysis trader and I know support when I see it.

"Ask Again"
- Magic 8 Ball

Actually, there were two events in 2011.

The crash from 32 to 10 happened over two days.  Then the price bounced and stabilized in the 15-20 range.

A few weeks later mtgox got hacked and was shut down for a significant amount of time.  After that the price slowly went down to 2 over the course of another six or so months.

I think the mtgox shutdown probably caused the real loss in confidence in the markets which caused people to slowly cash out.

And now we're in the middle of another DDOS sell-off, gettting people to lose confidence in the markets all over again.

this

I thought 115 was the new 2? Oh it's 100 now... dont worry we've got a lot more down to go

I don't think we will see an average lower than 100

No one really knows what is going to happen next but this bubble is of a different nature. The context is different and the composition of market players is also different. The amount of commerce conducted in bitcoin doesn't suggest a price even close to $100 but more people are realizing that if bitcoin succeeds its value should be many multiples of $100.

I noticed the one time it hit $100 today there was a slight panic and it fell to $99.25 but then everyone realized that the floor is $100. I'm confident enough I bought at $100 and will keep that overnight now.

Any chance you could post some charts and analysis? I'd love to see it.

2 is the new 2.

unless the rules of mathematics have changed or something

100 == 2 ?

"THERE IS AS YET INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR A MEANINGFUL ANSWER."

Your prediction is based on a feeling or a hunch. The Best FX brokers in the world's single advice is not to trade on a feeling.

And I think that even now there is no guarantee that bitcoin would not collapse as a currency. There is no real backup.

So 0 is the new floor as unlikely as it is now. It all depends on users and markets. Because it could reach 500$ but I wonder if MtGox for instance has that much money. Especially if it happens as fast as it did in March and April.

They don't have an infinite amount of $. If BTC reaches 500$ it needs to happen slowly or the currency would collapse on itself.

From security point of view it would be better if it goes to 4$ again and increases to 500 in a couple of years. Otherwise only the first to exchange their coins will actually have anything to show for it.

When exchangers start losing they will stop their exchange service. For sure.

+1 for Asimov reference.

Would have to agree with this ^

Thanks, I feel so much better now.

80 is the new 100!

Soon 50 will be the new 80. The only thing that can save us is the manipulators lagging out MtGox to make more money off bitcoin noobs, how ironic

100 is 4
10 is 2.  :)

Don't worry. Everything is going to be all right!

Aldous Huxley

60 is the new 2.

Until tomorrow, when 50 will be the new 2.