Bitcoin Forum

Discuss.

Wow, that was a quick bull trap    :P

You obviously don't understand how quickly things change in the Bitcoin world :)

WOW... I'm amazed also. Based on your brief posting history here I figured you would be one of our new permabears. Seems you are more reasonable than that. I think being perma anything is a tad extreme, leaves no room for error. hehe ;D

hooorayyyy!!! haha I know I give you shit but I give everyone shit on here . seriously though i like this story and I agree many many many more people are trying to get in to this bitcoin thing but it takes a week or two to get it all set up to rock and roll. when the money start in and i mean a crazy lot of money we are going to see huge gains, not just from high rollers but the middle class the one that say hey i think ill take a shot at this for a grand or two. telling ya its the calm before the storm.

sick bull pick too!!!!! gotta have that for my profile pic haha

I've never been perma-anything other than perma-right :)
So far, I haven't been wrong about a single prediction I've made on this forum yet.

I held when people were selling at 160 and 190.
I sold at 235 the morning before the bubble burst.
When it burst and dropped to 150, people said buy, but I said it would continue to sub-100.
At 79 I bought up and sold at 100+.
I correctly stated yesterday's run-up to 130 was a bull trap, and it's since dropped to 100.

I've been right every single time, and I will be right on this. We will see 150+ by week's end, possibly 160. From there it will stabilize and slowly appreciate, no bubble burst this time :)

so you found Facebook brothers 4 days after everyone else did, now can you tell us when they started buy BTC? Was it before or after Avalon shipped their first ASIC?

One of the related stories indicated they acquired their coins last summer (2012).  BTW at worst that means they paid $15 a coin and are looking at a solid gain.

cocky much....i hear yay will do that to ya though.

No, I knew about the story when it was first reported by smaller outlets. It was just yesterday that it got front page MSM coverage, and I'm pointing that out.

this is not true. it peaked Thursday, April 11. please only post claims you yourself have verified...

113 - 118 Monday (2013-04-15) with cautious increments due to burgeoning market to 160-165 Monday (2013-04-22).

Stabilized price in bitcoin world= 2 days ;)

If Mtgox doesn't lag (which is asking quite a lot) I agree we could be seeing $150 by the end of the week.

Seems about right.

I think that's a reasonable call.

I'm thinking if we hold around $100 to close today, $120 tomorrow is doable as a bump, not starting a trend of that steepness though.

And I think the only reason I haven't been called a perma-bull yet is because I have that Bear in my name - false flag ;)

One of the advantages I see of those more serious investors in bitcoin is they will help to stabilize the market I think. They will hold their coins much longer than a normal investor would and I don't think they would try to dump them and join a panic and try to profit off of bubbles.... but rather seek a more longer term investment and recoup it eventually gradually over time.

as good a prediction as any other.  I expect a rise with strong resistance around 180$.. no timeframe.  That's if it breaks strong resistance at $130 first!

Don't overestimate your abilities. This quickly leads to wrong decisions. Just saying.

A swing to 160 seems reasonable. But I'm not sure if Bitcoin will continue to rise from this level. Price could also dip again and develop a stretched plateau around $ 80.

But none of this really matters: A Bitcoin will still be a Bitcoin. :D

Yeah, I'm not the kind of dumbass to throw my life savings into one investment; I've only re-invested my profits so far. That way if something catastrophic happens like AES encryption somehow gets cracked tomorrow, I will still have broken even. Barring anything like that, this call seems pretty obvious. MSM reports big name investors getting in = public wants in too = more demand = price goes up.

I also started my active career in the forum as a bear, but that lasted for about 2 days. After wising up, I have been right on everything, so welcome to the club! :) Except that my take for the next week is rise to $150 by Wednesday, and a muted dippish weekend as per the "normal order of late March, 2013". Only one of us can be right on this one, or perhaps both, what do you say?

Btw Tesla was a genius.

Meh, maybe it could be Wednesday. I said 150-160 by Friday. Other posters are saying 170-180. We'll just have to wait and see.

One thing's for sure - the lack of action today is boring.

just looking at the pattern I have noticed..... usually monday and tuesday gox is somewhat attack free. I suppose someone wants the price to go up. Or maybe it just goes up because that is when most funds arrive and people don't like to wait to buy. But then wednesday and thursday there is usually a lag attack and also a crash. Just saying ........

This time? The most positive press was on Thursday and Friday, with Friday getting the ABC front page about the Winklevii. Given the time it takes wire transfers to make it to exchanges, I project Wednesday and Thursday will be the most bullish of the week. But I think we'll start seeing the earliest action tomorrow.

People who made it to the bank Friday -> will be buying Monday
People who made it to the bank Sat -> will be buying Tuesday
People who make it to the bank tomorrow -> Will be buying Wednesday and Thursday (this will be the majority)
Some transfers take a little longer, and some people will have waited til Tuesday, so we'll see some action Friday and Sat as well.
Following week may see some latecomers who want to get in on the increase, which may result in a mini-bubble and a little volatility.
Month's end? We may well be seeing 170-200 coin.

Although I'm definitely a medium and long-term bull, I think the market wants to test the $50 lows before going much higher. You guys might be right about the 150 this week, but I think we will test the new lows - and this will help the bull be stronger for the medium term....Patience (or not). We will get there.

Disclosure. I have definitely not been right about everything like you guys :)) Except I got the big call right -buying as much coin as I could afford after the 2011 crash and then again last summer. So on the big calls, I'm doing great... ;D ;D

Yeah, the important facts about Bitcoin are quite easy to list:
- The protocol is working fine, and the blocks are 90% empty
- 99% of the world does not own any bitcoins, 99.99% owns less than BTC1, 99.9999% owns less than BTC131.

So you can choose to be among the rich 1%, the super-rich 0.01% or the ultra-rich 0.0001%  :D

The early adopter advantage is ruling supreme, almost everyone can still aim to be among the ultra-rich, and buying your way among the super-rich is not setting you back more than the cost of a decent meal  :D ;D

Maybe its time to see how strong the bitcoin / Hollywood connections can be tested?

If a celebrity - even at C level like the twins can have an effect, imagine what would happen if an A class celeb got on board?

But back to reality, we need this decentralised exchange working before we give Tom Cruise a ring! ;)

The chumps of the Facebook story are now investors in Bitcoin. Whoopie f***ing doo. The kind of people whose heads will be turned by this story won't be enough to prop-up Bitcoin's value. For me its a massive black mark against Bitcoin and another indication of speculation circus we're currently living through.

I'm looking to recoup my losses, so let's hope you're right.

 ;D

Long run I see BTC going only up so I'm not worried at all. That and my losses only total $140.

I think you're right - between people waiting to get verified, and the simple fact that bank wires should be clearing Mon Tues Wed.  Should see a temporary yet significant price increase.

And yes, I also hope so :)

Today may not see much; Tuesday + Wednesday will be bigger, Thursday will be biggest. Definitely still long at this point.

Well said! May it be so  ;D

I have been wrong so far this week. The bears are holding their ground. Every day in $100 reduces the chances to run to $150 this week, so I would be willing to bet 1:1 that we do not reach it. No actual bets though, just my guess.

Mt.Gox is no more representative of the OTC price of bitcoin, if anyone is interested.. Even if Gox hits $150, it is unlikely that OTC will follow.

I don't think the bears have proven anything, it's just the bulls are, for some reasons, reluctant to advance as of now.

Too busy absorbing 1 million bear BTC.

I think you all are too optimistic. We are maybe getting the first tiny green daily candle today, maybe. But that's all. Just relax for a week …

We are a couple of hours into the US morning and I see no buying pressure at all. Everyone is waiting. I agree with RP that the longer we see hesitation, the less likely 150 this week, I think the more likely we need to move down to check support levels.

And many of us were following China's lead during the run-up...take a look.

https://btcchina.com/

Agreed. Or two. Or three.

What's the rush?? Have faith in the coin and think in terms of months and years. That's why I'm here, and that's why I guess most of you are here. I too got into the hysteria of the last couple of months  - it was a blast - but that was just the wake up call to the world. Now let bitcoin really show its stuff, in its own time, and at it own pace... I'm betting you and I will be very happy, and sooner than the world thinks.

So do you still think that "we will see 150+ by week's end" ?

Thread has been renamed to "BTC to $1.50 by Friday" :D

That's a little extreme... 100->150 is a 1.5x increase but 50->1.5 is a 33x decrease...

Looks like the self assigned perma-right title is gone.

These bulls are tame oxen, moo moo.. I am proud to have bought BTC500 last night (UTC) at $80-$90 range. Do you actually think you will get to buy these coins easily when it starts to run? If you are gone for good, au revoir. Just please don't flock the entrances the way you flock the exits. I start to wonder if everyone here is trading a <BTC1,000 position as they seem to be able to go in and out several times a day...

I can easily buy 500@50 in this market. But why would I want that ? The rocket is landing:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-GB#q=bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins&date=today%207-d&cmpt=q

If you think the probability of bitcoin going to $300k is less than 1/6000 of it going to $0, yes, you should not buy at these levels.

I think it is well over .1%, which makes it an incredible buy, but to each his own.

Sorry, are you referring to me or no one in particular?

@rpietila, you just disclosed that you lost 15-20.000$ nominal value in a single day, but rationalized that the loss is not real since you can't get back in easily at large volumes. I objected that the loss is very much real, and it's easy to get 500 coins in this market without much slippage.

A loss is a loss, it doesn't matter what you and I think the future will be. Sure, if it goes back up you recover and then some, but you still have a lost opportunity, you could have made the same money with a lower investment or double profit with the same investment.

@OP, change title to $15 and you can be perma-right again. No wories, your secret is safe with us.

Anyone with more than a truckload of money, would be better off just buying at sub-$100 levels, as otherwise he would probably end up with less bitcoins. I don't know, whether I am referring to you. Am I?  ::)

The problem with me, is that I don't think in terms of fiat. I switched to silver in 1/2006 and bitcoin in 3/2013. I haven't made a loss in my currency. OK, I admit that if bitcoin "goes up", I still feel richer, so perhaps my problem is beyond curable.

Also, I don't use Mt.Gox for coin acquisition. It is way too risky for an old school guy like me. The greatest I bought in Bitstamp in March was about BTC1,500 per day, and that was 37% of the exchange's volume during the period. I repeat, in my experience, getting coin was difficult during the runup from $50 on. Glad to be back here!

Grrrr...typical Finn. But yeah, I agree with you there, my status is more like that of Roni though, I did buy some(heck, I even sucker bought at $170 when it was all the way down, although I was buying back my position sold at $190),  but I mostly spend my day trying to arbitrage by catching people off-guard, Gox actually worked surprisingly well today, this combined with the volatility allowed me to offset my loss through the arbitrage(technically not loss as I am still vastly in black).

Hehe another case where Bitcoin seems to have humbled an ultra-confident/border line cocky investor who thought he was invincible.  As for the "well it's going to skyrocket anyways, doesnt matter what level I bought" argument, it is a logical fallacy that seeks to comfort people who made a bad trade. As someone already pointed out, the opportunity cost at having missing out on acquiring more coins at cheaper prices can't easily be discounted and thrown to the side. I see this same line of thinking in the precious metals space, and it's just wrong. You bought in too high, admit it like a man and move on, it's nothing to be ashamed of.

You think a silver investor in 2008 can be humbled by anything? Oh well, perhaps, but in that case he would have ceased to be a silver investor back then.

I think what gives me the confidence is above all the following facts:
- I only invest what I can lose, I mean, lose, meaning ZERO.
- Since I own gold, silver and bitcoins, the probability of all crashing at the same time, is ... umm. .. not so big  :-[   ;)   ;D
- I don't leverage or short = peace of mind (except with peanuts)
- I can earn more than I spend.

You can do what is good for you, but don't label people cocky just for the reason that they want to buy more bitcoins even though they already have some. I don't have the position of another poster, who could make BTC200 become BTC600 during the crash. You seem to have no idea how conservative rich people are. Losing 100% if an exchange goes down, is bad. "Losing" 80% of the "value" on top of +2000% gains is an inevitability.

Are you sure that's specific enough?  How about if you think there's a 3/700 chance of it going to 579, and you can't dance the jig, you should buy.  Otherwise sell.

Yeah looks like he is an internet tough guy... Changed his title and edited his posts to say 1.5 lol  (or there is an evil admin on the loose).

I can never take someone seriously if they can't admit they were wrong once in a while.

I was referring to the OP as 'cocky' not you, he seemed to have a mind set that he could do no wrong, which is very wrong mindset for any investor no matter how wise. Following your diary posts, I'm sure you're a wise investor as well so don't take my latest statements personally. But let's call a spade a spade, for example I've been buying gold at the 1600 in recent months, but will be the first to admit that it was too early (give the huge drop last couple days) even if I do think it will go higher long term. Something people on this forum don't seem to understand that making the 'right' moves at the 'right' time doesn't necessarily mean it was the wisest decision at the time. This might sound a little contradictory to what I was saying earlier, but the point here is not that trading perfectly makes you godly or that few bad trades makes you a fool, it's the longer goal, the strategy at reaching it, and steps to execute it that is important. So my main objection is with gloating..

You need to take on risks to make money, especially in a zero-sum market like this. So buying "too early" does not make you a fool, nobody has psychic powers, catching falling knives, hindsight is 20/20 etc.

However you can't stick your head in the sand and claim you view the world in bitcoin-only colors. There is no price stickiness in bitcoins, no matter how many you have when it's time to spend them you will see people give you twice more stuff for twice more bitcoins (unless you plan on taking them in the grave). So any strategy that leads you to twice more bitcoins in the long run is preferable, and failure to seize the opportunity is a loss, pure and simple. Accept the loss as part of a calculated risk and improve your strategy.

Moving large amounts on small exchanges is not the best strategy, especially if you are not panicky. Gox is decent when there's no panic and you can sink millions without bending it. Perhaps you have personal reasons for avoiding them.

Ah, there was no argument after all  :D I am most of the time perfectly wrong, but still seem to do just fine because of my resilience.


There are several approaches, I can't even name them all. I have a sort-of glossary of trading strategies in the making, but I have only formulated the following so far:
1. buy (or dca) and hold
2. buy once, and sell according to predetermined schedule (of time, or exch.rate)
3. trade swings, with rapid buyback
4. only buy upmoves (minimum btc holding risk, catches 25-50% of the gains)
5. arbitrage

People who are near and dear to me, have suggested that I should "take profits and let the freebies run". This is a valid strategy for non-professionals. We professionals do not subscribe to sunk cost fallacy. For me the exchange rate loss of a $million is as real, regardless whether I had bought the coins for $1 or $100. If I would employ the strategies #3-#4 above, this would be seppuku time. But I don't. My strategy is #1 & #5, with a small dip into #3, and I am doing fine with very little risk, measured in BTC. Nothing, save the abject and total failure of the protocol, can take away a significant percentage of my bitcoins. If Bitcoin is not destroyed, I will be a force to be reckoned with. Even destroying me does not change this fact, according to my understanding of how Bitcoin works.

If Bitcoin fails, I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling. Stick to your own trading strategy, and if ever you make it big, you will lean towards my thinking, perhaps even without knowing it.

Seems your goal is similar to the Winklevoss twins, accumulating loads to have a decent shot to go from well-off/rich to being super rich - so I can understand your strategy. There are others who try to trade Bitcoin as a kind of job which they derive their 'salary' from and those people will trade more aggressively. Then there are those that buy it as a lottery ticket, saying they don't care really what happens and just hope their 10 BTC can one day be 1 million years from now.

Each of these strategies are different and none are necessarily better than the other, just different goals/levels of risk/expectations.

I personally find that Bitcoin moves with a lot of momentum - that applies to both up and down movements. When it is going up you want to ride that as far as it can go...not trying to magically find the peak to sell at (it's okay selling 20% off the peak during a crash). Once the bubble has popped and it's on it way down, you really want to let it crash as low as possible and wait out to buy in again (its okay buying 20%-50% higher than the absolute bottom price if you are confident its about to enter a major phase up). I could obviously be wrong, but that's a trading strategy I'm comfortable with as I do believe in the boom/bust cycle of hype.

Actually He wasn't that far off, you were premature to state this.  Here it is Friday the 19th and we had a high of $136 so far.

Thank you. This is one of the best posts I've read today.

I want to share my secret with you. This (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1886147#msg1886147) gives me confidence to buy and hold bitcoins. Instead of making money myself, I want to make the dream come true. The universe has that dream, so it will be fulfilled regardless, I just feel it is my place to be right now.

Mister market won't give you easy money! just when everybody start to realize that they should buy at 50 and sell at 150, the market shall go down to 50 and then slowly but surely continue down, down, down... - and it is then that you may give up after losing tons of money. Don't expect the market to let you ride the volatility again - it will fool you! It will - because the minute everybody realize and adopt a strategy - it doesn't work any more! that's life! No easy money and no gifts and no presents.

GotBitCoins.

I know I'm new to posting but I've been reading speculation board for quite some time and Nikola is the only person that has been nearly dead accurate the entire time, he's only 16 dollars off for today's prediction, and the day hasn't even hit it's rally times yet. I'm in the understanding that being perma bull or perma bear is detrimental to growth in either direction, but being totally bearish after seeing market growth through crashes (as they do tend to naturally occur) seems a bit like masochism.

And as I speak we're in an incline with no real buy walls in place.  I Expect a bit more growth out of this before any 20-30 dollar declines actually occur.

I don't know he seems a little too sure of himself, I tend to believe and respect people more who show good reasoning and are humble about it and admit they can't always be right. He was wrong btw about the crash to $50 the day after he posted this prediction. Then he deleted his first post and changed the title to BTC to $1.50 by Friday lol. I doubt he actually expected the market to recover this fast, but he probably won't admit that either.

Obviously I'm not going to jump on whatever nikola says is going to happen, but consistent accuracy isn't something that I've been able to achieve. I'd be willing to admit my loss in buying over 200 when seeing the market skyrocket trying to hop on that bull train, and then not being able to sell out fast enough on the crash due to lag and cellphone trading -.-... regardless with micro i've been able to compensate for some of my losses and I'm hopeful for the future, but no more blind leaps :)

tl;dr for thread:
Direction (what matters most): correct!
Magnitude: Incorrect.