Bitcoin Forum

Will Casascius coins ever become more scarce?

I don't think they will. Except for the earliest 2011 mintage, most of these coins have never been exchanged between people, used or will be used. In 2011 these coins were novelty. By 2012 they were being collected.

Any way that these coins can see appreciation in a natural way?

When does this move beyond people trying to sell their coins for 2-4x face and maybe, maybe he finds someone interested?

Well they are collectible items which in fact do have a decent markup about facevalue because of their rarity.

In nearly every article about bitcoin show a picture of a shiny casascius coin so they get  appreciation in a natural way.

Not sure what you are to point out though.

Although a lot of coins never changed original owner there is a lot of varity in quality between coins. Over time the high grades will get a higher and higher premium is my guess while the low grades will keep circulating.

I think the way in which the coins will become more scarce will only be over time through the gradual redemption of funds.
We already know the approximate mintage of each series and there's a website that is updated to reflect how many coins are still 'active'. The moon coins that are peeled, the more scarce in intact ones become.

I think they naturally become more scarce, but it's very dependent on the Casascius item. Like the bearer bars have shot up in value in the last couple years and it's very hard to even find one these days. People might lose them in various ways, redeem them at peak bitcoin periods or even have them stolen, so it's hard to figure out the long term value. I think the market is quite flooded right now and new buyers are scared to invest in such expensive little items, but maybe once bitcoin has proved it can stay high then others might start buying again.

Not just scarcity, its the market as a whole.  Generally crypto is still infant, physical collectables like casascius coins even smaller.  As interest expands with mintages staying the same since cas is done means higher prices.

Always supply vs. Demand.  Root of all value no matter what you are talking about.

They are already more scarce.  An example of this is eBay.  There used to be dozens of coins for sale on eBay and now there is maybe a couple at a time.  It is mostly peeled coins now.

As far as I remember, eBay have never allowed funded coins to be sold and periodically take down this sort of item in a purge. They do this because people would buy the coins, redeem the stored value and demand a refund. Just be careful because you might be getting the wrong impression of availability from just once source.

 
You haven't been paying attention.  They have allowed physical bitcoins for years now.

@OP: No more of the original casascius coins will ever be made. So the supply will either stay the same or decrease. It's unlikely that it'll stay the same since it is possible that people will redeem their coins when BTC rises in price.

If bitcoin becomes mainstream I believe many numismatic fans may learn about physical btc, this in turn could generate demand for Casascius as collectible items.
Only need ~5000 people in the world to be wanting a Casascius collection (like one of each) to make them very scarce.
Hopefully we could also see more books like the "Encyclopedia of Physical Bitcoins" to educate collectors in numismatic shops and websites.

If bitcoin doesn't become mainstream, (it's been trying for years!) then maybe value of Casascius may not grow that much, may stay relative to BTC price.

So we probably have quite a few more years to HODL onto them Casasciuses, meanwhile if BTC moons over a certain value we may see quite a few being peeled,
especially the ones that didn't cost too much of a premium when purchased.

So BTC goes mainstream = Casascius more scarce 
BTC Price goes to the moon = Casascius more scarce

In my opinion.

Yes, they are becoming more scarce by the minute.  ;)

Casascius coins are prized and will continue to be since no more will enter circulation.

I don't think there is much variety in quality between coins of the same mintage. The brass coins will show the most wear because of the metal used. They smudge and scuff easily. The silver coins were all issued after these items became collectible, very few have been spent, none have be used as "change" or real currency, hanging around in your pocket. Majority of these coins have the same level of quality. One potential difference is how straight the first bits appear in the hologram, but that's it!


Why do they get more scarce by the minute? You sound like Trump with that fake news!


I appreciate your opinion. How do they become more scarce if the same number exist one day to the next? These coins sit in collections (most of them), they aren't getting used or disposed of!

You couldn't possibly know that. Much like old cars they're cherished of course, but that doesn't mean many of them aren't rusting away in garages somewhere, making the ones that are kept up only more valuable by the year. Not even mentioning the fact that many could be redeemed, making intact versions even more rare.

As I explained:

In the first case they become more scarce because there could be higher demand for them as more collectors may be interested. Right now the physical btc market is not huge.
In the second case because some of the current owners may peel them because they want to cash in their btc value, so there could be less loaded ones.

Whenever there is a vast increase in BTC - people who value the coins in Fiat are happy to peel and redeem. Think of the thousands of people who have these coins but aren't real bitcoin enthusiasts.

plus there are the crazy people who peel for fun!