Bitcoin Forum

I've seen a lot of threads on this forum, speculating about the price of bitcoin regularly. We make guesses but what are they based on? It might be a chart with previous fluctuations but we know that if something happened once it doesn't mean it will happen again. And yet I guess it is us, the btc users, who actually control the price by believing in it bieng worth something. What do you think?

Well speculation does makes sense, since trading future is unknown, we cannot control the future factors affecting the stocks or whatever we are trading, It shows hope of a person trading to have positive gain even though a possible lost can be seen which result in emotional contentment on his trade.   I think if it brings positive emotion to people, it do make sense.

They based onna ho buncha bullsnips.  They based on hope.  An' mostly they based on ig'n'ance.  Jist people spoutin' they mouths off, wantin' the price ta go up, but nobody here know.  We all inna same boat o' silliness an' confusion.

When people speculate it is good (and more real) to be based somewhere because a speculation without (at least poor) evidence then it doesn't make sense. But people mostly speculate based on their past experience and hope that the situation is a bit similar with the past and the same can happen today or in the near future. Nobody knows for sure what will happen or what the price will be but some can estimate approx.

There is a saying "pure speculation" for a reason, it is not derived from anything that is 100% predictable.

Price speculation too makes sense, we cannot completely deny it. Early days speculation from the small user group who continued to speculate is the reason for a gradually increase in the price, else it too could have served similar to other altcoins.

sometimes the topics are pure speculation or better called guesses. but sometimes they are real speculation based on analysis this can be technical or fundamental analysis.
and as you know most of the time you listen to the news and look for what is happening in the world and adoption of bitcoin and then give some speculation about bitcoin price. as an example i can mention the halving last year.

For me mate your point is correct we as the users and traders are the one who imfluences the price of btc we are the one who make changes, speculations help to move the directions if theres someone who speculate because of previous things happen it us who believes on will move it up or dump it down.

For me, bitcoin price speculation here or out of this forum some of them make sense. Sometimes it really helps on how or what will you do next with your bitcoins. Well, still it is just there own opinions and predictions; it is a guide for us. I know they base it from the price history and previous movements.

That's actually what it is, we give value to BTCBTCBTC and people accept that value. This space is entirely speculatory, and what we've built through the years is a product of it so it's not bad at all. We're moving mountains here with this tech, and it's gotta be worth something.

Speculations by all people here in the community does really have sense if in such cases they can show some reasons and support to their basis why should that speculation would become senseful in any ways. Stating like "$4,000 , $3,000 by end of the year 2017" isn't speculations to consider literally but rather a guess one.

But you know speculations can be a reference for people if how will they respond to the current price rate whether to buy or to sell their stash. The effect of it is kinda can give impact on how will they react to the possible price movement in bitcoin price.

it depends on which topic you are talking about, they are mostly FUD topics and full of lies wanting to achieve some purpose, mostly filling their own orders they have places before.
but you do the same as you do with any other market price, it is based on analysis of the market.
you can read about so many resources in the sticky here and also if you search for them on the internet about how to speculate the price and be a trader.

Yes it make sense for me because it may affect price drop and rise due to users vision and thinking about the future of price movement and some speculations were saying negative thoughts and some has positive rumors. Although it has nothing to do with actual price fluctuations sometimes its a big help to people who research a lot of informations.

Of course there is no 100 predictability here. There is actually no 100% predictability anywhere. What I am asking is whether there is any % predictability? Or something below 50%? Something we can really be sure about.. For example, is there a very high probability of the price going down right after halving?

Not a science, of course, just watching chart patterns has some solid tradition ranging back into the early stock market stone ages.
Those patterns do repeat, resistance and support levels are for real

Speculation gives signal indicators to users whether they will buy not not. It all depends to the users still to listen to the speculators who provides idea to traders, its always good to feel what the mass are saying so if majority of those who replied they are just holding, its still a good idea to go along with them than risking your money.  Its always a good time to buy whenever btc dips and we can check speculators posts every time it occur.

Some info in speculation makes sense, some is just FUD, depending on what the poster wants to achieve.
Some even think they may influence others' trading decisions.  :o
However, at least it's fun to read :)

there are truly different between pure speculation and guessing and most people at here only guessing for next movement of bitcoin price and for an example that when bitcoin reach to $1100 some people says it would reach to $1500 or $2000 soon because the rally hasn't stopping yet but for me they only guessing and different also for pure speculation because usually they will see bitcoin chart and volume support each exchange or other else to predict bitcoin price so for me price speculation does make sense as long as they have good analysis to do so

Speculation means a view about the money value. Here what indicates difference of pure speculation and guessing. To say about speculation, this is simply doing by the people here in the forum calculating upcoming pump and dump about bitcoin value.

"The herd instinct among economists makes sheep look like independent thinkers." (who said this?)
However as often as I've tried to bark them into this or that direction... The trend is your friend. You cannot trade against the trend and believe there will be just one successfull chart analyst still standing in the end. Will just flatten you.

Speculation does make sense, provided it is well funded. If there are some solid arguments behind to support the claim, it is interesting. Unfortunately, that is not the case for like 95% of the posts in the speculation section that are mainly driven by emotions.
Just my two cents.

Bitcoin price speculation is mostly done by brokers and traders and they want everyone to think with their mind set so that all people go in a certain direction and the big players get benefit.  Bitcoin price speculation is important for everyone to have some insight on the future on it.

Very nice explanation. I will like to add my example on this. For example if you are holding a lots of bitcoins and you want the price will go further up, you will speculate and say the price will go very high in next few days. Based on this speculation people tend to buy more and price automatically increased and then the spectacular can sell at a higher rate.

Not that easy mate. We are not nostradamus so that people will easily believe on  our speculation, in fact we can be accused for shilling on that method because we keep on insisting  for price pump without any proof and just for personal gain, For me price speculation is for knowing the pulse of what the majority of bitcoin users feels about the price outcome and have a buddy whenever the price of  bitcoin dump hard and lose a lot of money.

I can say that people prediction helps too to know those who are newly commers what bitcoin price really is and showing them that bitcoin in not an stable price and its really hard to predict on when its going to increase and decrease it always random depends of the volume and demand of the bitcoin.

Looks like a random walk, but isn't. Since january 2015 we are trending upwards. Last year featured a halving on fresh supply. Last Christmas excesses might cool down a bit now, but dont exspect a trend reversal there are no events pointing at that.

I can say that it helps somehow for those people who have doubts with what is happening with bitcoins current economy.

But those speculators have their own cite and proof to be believe for and to support their predictions.

So it is really making sense when there are good predictors who are doing intelligent guest and forecasting with bitcoins current and future situation.

You are right! Sometimes I agree with them because after I read their articles, I also search if the predictions they tell is nearly to happen. I believe them if they have a good evidence or source of proof, and I think also if it will go right.

some of those fud are also speculation, if you think about ti they are done on purpose to drive the price down or high, it's all about directing other buyers to what you want

speculation of investors follow their prediction, and the result is an average of all of them that go in the direction of the highest probable one

Somebody has bragged not long ago that the biggest bucks he has done doing the opposite of what the speculation threads told.
I can't say he was right or not, but I have a feeling that if you follow the trend you are already one step behind. You may gain, but not that much as the trend setter and you have to be quick and see the changes correctly.

On the other hand there are no braggers touting their biggest losses archived by acting against the trend :D
Taletelling, isn't it?

Big players were controlling and always control bitcoin's and every other currency's price, this world is in black colours. For some people it makea sense, for some people, not. It's sad but simple people aren't controlling and can't to control it but at least half part is on our side, it can't be changed.

Do you really think that the speculation posts in here are mostly 'made by brokers'?
I really doubt it. Of course some of them are, even shilling with alt newbie accounts, but there are also plenty of post made people who just bought coins because it is 'hot' and they do not know how to handle Bitcoin's volatility.

For me it is a yes bitcoin price speculation make sense for me how you can know or get some ideas on how the bitcoin price will increase or decrease atleast you know and your getting ready for that to happen there nothing wrong believing on prediction sometimes. if you know it will happen then trust your instinct too.

People want to make money fast, that's the basis of speculation, and they want to make it without effort. Buying cheap and selling higher is what can achieve this goal.

The price is the reflection of market participants, there not necessarily any sense to be extracted from it, there are too many variables. George Soros has good books on this (even if you dont like the actual guy, he is a bright mind)

Of course speculation threads have sense here. People are reading it and it can make affect on a person.
The total number of bitcoins is 21 millions. And when the price is high then more people have to have it. The most of speculation threads made to make people to sell their bitcoins, to someone else could buy it with the lowest price to  get rich one day.

Should expand that Merriam-Webster Dictionary by

In this forum, some speculations are based on technical analysis and well researched data. Some are just baseless speculation, shouting to the moon. And others just want bitcoin to crash. They have their own agenda and they will post continuously to push their agenda and make profit from it. It is better if you do not listen to any of those speculation and do your own.

Everyone of us buying bitcoins have a reason why we do this. Some people use it to trade, others use it as a safe haven to protect their wealth and

most use it, because it makes sense to have a alternative to Fiat. So the incentive to "speculate" as OP has put it, is different with every individual.

The price of Bitcoin is based on supply & demand, not government manipulation.  ;) {That is how it should be}

That is why we as readers or maybe future speculators we need to be aware on those speculators are saying.

Because some of them are just telling lies that wants to give people a false information and wants to make the society to be in rage.

And when I'm seeing a speculator that has accurate speculators, I'm following his waves.

Bitcoin price speculation is not only important to the brokers and traders, even first time bitcoin buyers would like to get an insight when to get cheaper btc for themselves.

I don't know if some magical hands are playing with the price, but we can't be sure where to based on bcs btc isn't control by anyone specific. That's why isn't easy for someone to make forecasts about it. :/

You partly wrong : there is paterns that are repeating, and this is normal, they are just the consequence of one's normal reactions to high price fluctuations. Also, predicting the price is not useless as since Bitcoin is not a game, his price is tied to real-world events, so often when something happens, the discussions heads toward identifying if this will impact the price or if it the latest increase was because of this.

maybe it makes sense. many people who do bitcoin price speculation for several reasons, and there are also some people who do it for no reason. but I guess that is a good thing, because then we could be getting ready for the upcoming price. I guess that makes sense

Investing in bitcoins is totally based on speculation.Speculation in bitcoins is done by seeing its performance in the past and based on the global changes occuring in the bitcoin industry.Conditions in china are mainly considered during speculation. Lots of new companies are showing interest in bitcoin and even banks and government organisations show their interest in applying block chain system. It shows how secure bitcoin is.Speculations in bitcoins have almost provided benefits to its holders.

They are based on pure speculation along with hope which are based on previous fluctuations and any kind of events which might effect bitcoins. They do sometimes follow  the pattern as usual. But prices can never be predicted.

I guess the exact price can never be predicted but the price trend can be.  Knowing the factors that affect the fluctuation of trading market will definitely give you an idea where the market would go.  One example, the pattern of fast incline in Bitcoin price will result in price downtrend in the next phase.  Then a release of a good news will definitely fuel speculators and buy BTC which result in Bitcoin price increase and opposite happen with Bad Press.

First of all every one should understand that bitcoin is trading asset, it completely depend on the market when there is huge demand automatically the price will increase, when there is less demand the price of bitcoin will reduce. No need of creating any speculation on this.

Most of the speculation about the price of bitcoin is based on the previous fluctuations
and other things that affect bitcoins price and hoping for it to increase. but we all know that
even if we follow a certain pattern the pattern(if there is) of the previous fluctuation we will
still not be able to correctly guess how much of the price of bitcoin will increase or decrease.

Speculation is not very healthy for bitcoin,
but it should be there, it creates nervous people, it creates bad decisions. Finance feels alive with speculation.

Without speculation, basically every market on the planet would become so boring, that investors will simply refrain from investing money there, refrain from investing money into infrastructure around whatever market, etc. Volatility attracts money, and indeed creates nervous people making bad decisions that lead to others making profit. Money always moves to stronger hands. Look at Bitcoin, without speculation, do you really think the price would have gone up this high? No chance. It's not for nothing that Bitcoin is being seen as a speculative investment tool for the most part. Infrastructure as in huge mining farms, exchanges, services, etc. It all drives on the price that may or may not boom at some point.

what you said is not called speculation, it is FUD and lies. that is what creates panic and makes people nervous and it is sadly part of any market, more in bitcoin.
speculation however is a different thing and as above comment says  is a part if every market.
there is lots of study behind real speculation, but this board ruins it with replacing speculation with "guesses"

The price for bitcoin depends only from us, bitcoin users. There is "magic hands" which can affect on the price actually. If you will see on the news that bitcoin is dead you will hurry up to sold your bitcoins to get at least some profit and this will make bitcoin's price to fall. And there is chance that this information will be lie. So in the end you have got manipulated with speculates and the price for bitcoin fell.

I think it is good to hear other opinions about which way the price might go.  As a trader, if I think the price might rise, I want to know if other people disagree because it could save me some money if they have a strong argument.

Well, if we talk about speculation, its mean we are respect to other members opinion, and it is better to know everyone's thinking. Because no one know about the future, but we only guess it and sometime our guess will be right. So in this way, we could earn money. Also speculation is a part of our bitcoin earning.

Sometimes I try to understand the logic behind the price changes. Many of the variations are quite difficult to predict, and sometimes it is difficult to find the causes for such events, in fact sometimes things do not seem to make sense. The price depends quite a lot on adoption, but I also think part of the price changes occur due to interference from large Bitcoin holders, I think most of them are Chinese speculators.

Bitcoin price is depending upon supply and demand. I think are moving forward in the price value of bitcoins. It crossed 1000$ again and we may make huge profit if hold it and sell it out In upcoming years. To say about speculations its simply waste of time because none of the being stable for a long time.

I think we can all speculate on the price but not many of us really have an idea which way the market will move at certain times. For example who knows when a whale is going to dump thousands of coins to move the price other than the whale himself?

All I can speculate is that bitcoin will be worth more in 1 year than it is today. 

correctly . everything is an estimate. we can not ensure the price of bitcoin easily. try to take down the bitcoin price movements and make speculations to ourselves.