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Title: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: kingcrimson on April 14, 2013, 07:19:42 PM A couple days before the 'correction' someone calculated that the price was doubling at an exponential rate, going back since 2011. This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. Every time it doubled it took half the time, over a 2 year period. Then they calculated we were only a few days from singularity.
The math was correct that it certainly was leading up to something big, but it wasn't singularity, it was an unsustainable 'correction'. I am wondering though how that model was so accurate. Was it just a coincidence or a human pattern at work? Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: Jaw3bmasters on April 14, 2013, 07:30:33 PM It was a unicorn.
No, seriously. Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: Ekaros on April 14, 2013, 08:46:41 PM A couple days before the 'correction' someone calculated that the price was doubling at an exponential rate, going back since 2011. This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. Every time it doubled it took half the time, over a 2 year period. Then they calculated we were only a few days from singularity. The math was correct that it certainly was leading up to something big, but it wasn't singularity, it was an unsustainable 'correction'. I am wondering though how that model was so accurate. Was it just a coincidence or a human pattern at work? With any data and sufficient time you can find infinite amount of patterns. Also scaling functions to work is pretty easy. Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: arepo on April 14, 2013, 09:09:45 PM This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. this is not the kind of thing that can be baldly asserted. Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: Kazu on April 14, 2013, 10:11:34 PM A couple days before the 'correction' someone calculated that the price was doubling at an exponential rate, going back since 2011. This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. Every time it doubled it took half the time, over a 2 year period. Then they calculated we were only a few days from singularity. The math was correct that it certainly was leading up to something big, but it wasn't singularity, it was an unsustainable 'correction'. I am wondering though how that model was so accurate. Was it just a coincidence or a human pattern at work? If it doubled and took half the time each time, we would double again in a several of weeks, not a couple of days. Idk if thats 'singularity', but it is what it is. Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: Flappy on April 15, 2013, 04:37:00 AM Question: How long does it typically take for the USD exchange rate of bitcoin to double? Answer:
... <snip> Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: SlipperySlope on April 15, 2013, 07:06:16 AM Here is my analysis.
The way up ... 4.16 December 19, 2011: 8.31 July 16, 2012 16.62 January 21, 2013 - doubling time 189 days 33.25 March 1, 2013 - doubling time 59 days 66.50 March 25, 2013 - doubling time 24 days 133.00 April 3, 2013 - doubling time 9 days 266.00 Wednesday, April 10, 2013 - doubling time 7 days Note that the doubling time gets shorter near the peak - this is the double exponential growth that is a marker for bitcoin bubbles so far. In the previous bitcoin bubble, prices doubled to the peak in 4 days. Apparently, once we sustain at several rapid doubles, the peak is near when doubling time is 4-7 days. Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: ManBearPig on April 15, 2013, 08:40:03 AM This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. this is not the kind of thing that can be baldly asserted. Then I suggest sir, with all due respect that you put a wig on. Title: Re: Remember the exponential run-up Post by: Bitsaurus on April 15, 2013, 10:30:19 AM This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. this is not the kind of thing that can be baldly asserted. Then I suggest sir, with all due respect that you put a wig on. Lipstick on a pig. |