Bitcoin Forum

From the Tickerforum.org written by Karl Denninger
Gotta give it to KD.  He was spot on!!  I hope that he's not correct about Bitcoin going to zero.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=219662


BitCON: I Told You So
 
You didn't name your boat, did you?

Or worse, buy into this crap over $200?

For those wondering where the support level is I will tell you -- but you have to promise not to tell anyone.  Pinky promise, right?  Ok, here 'ya go:

There is very strong support at $0.00.

Here is another interesting post by KD from the Tickerforum.org

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=219665

Destruction of BitCon-Accepting Businesses
 

If you remember I wrote an article a few days ago entitled "BitCon: DON'T" in which I laid out the premise of what a currency should be.

A currency should permit one to express their preference for goods, services and time.  That is the essence of currency; it permits you to engage in the intercourse of goods and services without regard to what you produce or desire, provided that someone in the economy values your product or service.

That person could be in the next house over, the next town over or across the nation.  It doesn't matter.  So long as such a person exists you can transact.

A good currency also allows you to express time preference.  That is, your desire to buy tomorrow instead of today.

An ideal currency places no thumb on the scale for any of these preferences.  That is, its value is invariant over periods of time.  This is important for many people but for business use it can be essential, because many businesses take goods and "refine" them in some fashion.  A baker takes wheat and makes bread and pastries; to do so requires time, and he therefore ideally wants the value of currency he exchanges to remain stable during the time between his acquisition of wheat and the sale of the end product.  If it is not to remain stable he must know the rate of change with a reasonable degree of certainty so he can adjust his prices to match cost in real terms.

There is a further problem -- businesses in virtually all cases and individuals in many cases are subject to tax.  Taxes are a cost of doing business and therefore unknown variation in the value in invariant terms for a currency is therefore quite damaging to the ability to pay taxes.  If you can't pay the tax man you're out of business.

When governments adopted currencies and denominated taxes in a given one, they made possible business planning.  You could then accept anything but you priced your goods and services in that currency, whether you accepted only that or a whole host of things in payment.  This allowed you to stabilize your expected profit margin and thus know you could pay the taxes due to the government. 

Before this adoption farmers were frequently dispossessed of their lands by the Lord of the realm, who came through demanding payment of taxes in grain.  If you didn't harvest sufficient grain you were screwed and lost your lands.  But when payment was made in coin you could always go help on someone else's farm, milk their cows or engage in some other act that had value to someone, get the required coin, and pay those taxes.  This was a stabilizing influence in society.

Now here's the problem for BitCon:

Let's say you denominated one month of Internet Hosting in "1 Bitcoin."  You accepted payment.  Then, in the next few minutes, the value of that coin collapses as happened today.

What happens to you?  If your effective tax rate at the expected exchange rate was 25% it has now doubled.  There is every possibility you will be unable to pay the taxes due along with the rest of your fixed costs.

If that happens you're done.

This is why businesses should not take Bitcoin.

Sure, when the price was "only" going up it felt great -- it was free money!  You got paid 2 BTC for that hosting and guess what -- two days later you were laughing your ass off because you made a huge profit on the FX exchange.  If you cashed it, that is.

Nobody in their right mind knowingly takes FX risk with 50% swings in minutes in a common business context.  That's nuts.  If you're a trader and like speculating in commodities, then sure, have at it.  Just make sure that you're ok with the sort of dislocation you saw today, and while you're at it also make sure that you've not deposited funds into a roach motel where you can't get out when you want to -- that is, where there won't be a sudden appearance of "gates" or "limits" preventing you from exchanging back to some other currency and withdrawing the funds.

By the way, that little issue is likely to be a problem too.

Bitcoin is in my view not a currency since it posseses none of the required properties of currency.  It is a digital commodity with zero intrinsic value, much like Tulip futures were.  Tulip bulbs had actual tangible value, even if small, as they grew into flowers -- futures, on the other hand, had no tangible value at all.

When TulipMania collapsed the government deemed the futures an illegal gambling contract and voided them, incidentally.

You might want to think about that sort of risk too.

I have no intention of ever accepting an alleged "currency" that moves 20, 30, 50% or more in value over a short period of time and you shouldn't either.

This might have been true in the past but it seems that crypto-currencies are changing the rules. They have different properties from fiat currencies (perpetually limited supply for example). I think that trying to define currency, which is itself primarily a social phenomenon, using a very rigid interpretation is a mistake. We need to embrace a wider view of currency since it is first and foremost, a tool to achieve various ends.

seems all indicators are pointing to some other, as yet introduced, alt currency replacing bitcoin. but wont w/ever alt-currency that emerges lack the decentralization, and user-autonomy inherent to btc? i can't see developers working too hard to make anyone except themselves, or worse; their masters rich.

What indicators? 

The price went up really fast, then came down fast and left us still way up versus even a few months ago.  I felt good about Bitcoin when it was trading around the $15 range for months.  As a store of value I've made a ton of money over the long term.  Bitcoin can also still do all the things it could before plus has continual work being done on the protocol and constant increasing improvements to the infrastructure, not to mention adoption has never been higher....

im talking about the press. Max Kieser, amongst others are announcing that they have got patents on various alt-currencies based on the bitcoin model. Sounds great, if you hold the patent. pretty much guarantees the patent holder is the sole "early adopter" The rest of us will only be "allowed" to use it, for a nominal fee ofc, making it no different than paypal or visa. big f&*king deal, says I.

I love the snark bitcoin brings out in these people. Bitcoin causes Emotions. :D

and emotions have no place in finance.

Yes which is why the rules should be set by algorithms.

Ah OK hadn't heard about that.  Doesn't sound great at all.

↑ I could not have said it better, so I will just re-quote it. ↑


We could call bitcoin and things like it, "Money 4.0".

Money 1.0 ____ Metals

Money 2.0 ____ Paper

Money 3.0 ____ Digital

Money 4.0 ____ Encrypted, decentralized digital

True, in this case it was more of a question asked and answered thing though.  I still wouldn't call it "all indicators" but his comment makes sense to me now.

Stopped clock effect. If you call for a crash in the Bitcoin price continually for two and a half years eventually you'll be right.

I know that I've said in the past that I would hold onto my coins, but if it starts playing in the 60's this week, then that tells me that this is a slow bleed-out. Where we stop on the way down is anyone's guess. So if we start playing in the 60's, I think that it will be time for me to gracefully exit.

 

That's bad news to me.  KD is one of the persons I pay some attention to from time to time.  And he's got some tech abilities...he doesn't need to 'ask his IT dept like Pento or Schiff...forgot which bozo said that...  I'll have to read Karl's earlier work on the subject.

Good, one less speculator.


Here's a thought, how about trying to create something of actual value and trade that good or service for bitcoin directly, without worrying about the last 10 candles on clarkmoody?


This is like a goddamn forex forum anymore.

I followed KD a few years ago and did well based on his advice.  He wasn't always 100 percent on everything, however he was 100 percent correct on many things.  

I have a feeling that he's correct on Bitcoin, but hope that he isn't.  Time will tell.

Actually I did.  I'm working on attempting to create a bed and breakfast type business that accepts Bitcoins.  The idea came about after Airbnb.com's refusal to accept Bitcoins.  9flats.com recently began accepting Bitcoins. 

Because of the wild price swings, a simple brick and mortar start-up like I wanted to get off the ground is extremely difficult. But I won't give up.

Excellent, congratulations!
If you accept bitcoin as a payment option, how much of your business do you expect to conduct in BTC? certainly not 100%, and certainly you shouldn't be valuing tangible material expenses in BTC either, at least not yet. If your business is viable, eating (or gaining) the price swings on a few of the bookings in BTC shouldn't plow it under either.

Karl Denninger is a serious wetpants. He just bashes everything and when something goes wrong he steps up and says, “See I told you so.”

It isn't going to be all Bitcoin based of course when it starts.  Hopefully, in the coming years when Bitcoin finally settles down and a firm value is reached, then we can enhance our acceptance of Bitcoin.  Doing so will eliminate the high fees charged by Airbnb.com + the Paypal fees.  

If I came off as a Bitcoin basher, then you misunderstood my posts.  I'm a firm Bitcoin believer!! I bought in when it was very cheap, so my need to exit isn't based on speculation, but on survivability.  I need my funds to start my venture, hence my interest to exit in the 60's if we start playing in that area this week.

Good luck to you.

I think Freicoin will be that coin, maybe after one or more other alt-coins that have more time under their belts have their day in the sun.  It's gone the farthest in reducing the features in BTC that guaranteed deflation and price instability.  Stability is clearly the next problem that must be solved for cyrpto currency to continue advancing.  Their are still more things we can do and the pool of innovations is barely tapped.  Check it out at http://freico.in/ or on our forums at http://www.freicoin.org/index.php

The only reason you come off as a basher is you keep pasting that hysterical, alarmist, mostly content-free blog post, even when it isn't remotely cogent to the topic at hand.

Good luck with your business, sincerely.

The only reason to try this is as part of an experiment. Bitcoin offers that plus financial incentive to try it out and encourage others to do so as well. I doubt the project will be successful but wish it well.

Poor old Karl, a day late and a dollar short ....

... not only has he showed up late for the party, it is the day after the party and he's going around drinking the dregs, firing up old roaches from soggy ashtrays, inspecting the vomit and kicking people off couches who are sleeping it off ...

I read the post, but not sure if I approve of the tone in much of it. Seems very negative. I don't know why people spend their time writing so much negative stuff. If I didn't like something, I would simply avoid paying any attention to it, and certainly would not spend all my time writing about it!

That being said, some of his points are valid, but he exaggerates a lot too. He says you can't use a currency where the value falls 50% in a few minutes. If we look at the price history of bitcoin, how many times have it fallen 50% in minutes? Sure, voaltility is a problem, but this is still a small market, and once it becomes bigger, it will take more to move it, and hence it will become more stable.

I would think most businesses accepting bitcoin are able to handle the risk. Business owners are not stupid. Instead of swinging the FUD-hammer, it would be good to point out the flaws or shortcomings in a neutral language, and perhaps even suggest what can be done about it.

I'm not sure what it is about bitcoin to have some of it's hardest critics not critizising it in an academic and intelligent way, but going so hard at it like it's some scumbag that raped their wife.

The notion of the strongest support level of bitcoin being at 0.00 is ridiculous. As long as the bitcoin system is running, there will be a use for it. Look at the decline after the bubble in the summer 2011. It went down to 2ish. It didn't go to zero. No matter what price point we're looking at, there will always be someone that's interested in using bitcoin, because it's such an easy way to pay online.

Sure there are risks, and some of these risks are really bad, like promising a Chinese business man 1000 dollars, and then you buy BTC and send it to him, and the exchange rate goes down significantly before he can convert it to his local currency. But it could also go up - or just flatline. You don't know - and as bitcoins are being more and more used, the market will grow - and we will eventually see more stability.

Sometimes I wonder, do the critics expect everything to work right off the bat ? No matter what you do, if you do something new, creating a microprocessor, starting a company, building a hospital robot or introducing a crypto-currency, everything will not be perfect from the set go, it needs to evolve.

It's like a mother giving birth to a child, some people may look at the baby and say: He can never become a professor, he doesn't even speak correct language, he can't sustain himself, he's drooling all over, and his place is on the floor, crawling, he will never be able to walk, run or do business or academics, just look at him, he can't do those things!

Some people are very short sighted, they don't see the larger picture. What's important is to be a visionary, to imagine things that are outside the box, things that can grow and become big, and even if you tried and didn't succeed, it was still a hell of a journey!

I sometimes wonder if some bloggers are paid to sway public opinion, and I guess many people swallow what the critics say, totally raw - but come on, what's the point of being so utterly negative, why spend your time on that ?

Don't hold your breath.

There's going to be loads of such articles these days but we have to deal with it.

Isn't this exactly playing into that graph people always like to post?  You know.  The graph that shows early adopters and the price line going slowly up.  Then the "public" gets in and the line takes off until it hits the top where it says "New Paradigm!!!"  Only for the line to start falling.  Then eventually it reaches the "despair" phase and then slowly comes back to normal after a bunch of people have already written it off.

Guess I just don't understand how Bitcoin was a solid idea a month ago and now that we've had a wild price swing due to speculation and tomfoolery with DDOS that all of a sudden it's worthless....

It's because people talk about it like its stock.

You mean this one?

i hope he is they i can buy 100,000 btc

KD is full of himself.

Who cares what he says?

He knows because his momma made him with Nostradamus.

I don't know who Karl Denninger is, but anyone who thinks BTC is going to $0 is a moron that doesn't deserve a thread in his name or discussing his opinion.

I've been wrong before but I think there's a shitload of support around $4 to $5. There's probably enough loose fiat money waiting to buy every single bitcoin in existence at those prices. So, I don't really think we'll go below that unless the whole network is compromised or Bitcoin's near-universally outlawed.

Realistically, I think the bottom will be between $10 and $30.

I think you're right, 0.00001% chances to go to 4-5. BUT, 10-30 is very broad area for me...

Definitely see the 10-30 bottom but what happens after is anyone's guess

Karl Denninger is the same guy who hates Gold (and Silver)!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mr-denninger-and-gold-or-why-dollar-deflationists-are-wrong

One of his most interesting quotes:

gold has never performed well on a contemporary basis .vs. inflation

This guy who berates people like me - who believe in legacy real assets - is kind of insulting. 

His opinion on Bitcoin is as valuable as his opinion on Gold. 

BTW, I was one of those "fools" who invested in gold at $324 and silver at $8.65. 

Nice job on the good prices that you picked those up for.  But, if you look at an inflation adjusted chart for the past 30 years, gold has done nothing.  Just throwing that out there, don't really care either way tbh.

Roger...but neither have stocks when you look at the manipulation of the S&P500 and DJIA (the stocks specifically added and deleted from these indexes to represent "all is right with the market") adjusted for inflation.  It has always boiled down to timing. 

Wall Street fanboys count on people forgetting about: 

1929-1949.  (20 years of nothing.)
1966-1982.  (16 years of nothing.)

And if you look at 2001 to 2013 and adjust for inflation, it makes one yawn. 

So, I guess my argument is that I view Bitcoin as an asset.  Some people love it.  Some people hate it.   It is bound to fluctuate.  The key is:  There is a real market for it.  There is a real demand for Bitcoin.  Wall Street snubs its nose at anything that they can't get their fingers into.  Give them some time...they'll figure out a way to conjure up a new crypto-currency derivative market.

So while Karl denigrates (pardon the pun) those who use Bitcoin, it just shows his usual transparent pissed-off stance when it is obvious he has missed the boat again on making some real coin.  (Pun intended.)

To finish:   I have never held anything for 30 years...usually 10 years at the most...but each of these "holding periods" have favored certain assets.  I couldn't give a hoot about 30 year cycles.  10 year cycles favor those who have their eyes open.

Karl May say One thing But I'm watching O'leary
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Business/ID/2375415659/

Thank you! 

Great catch! Sound, sensible hard nosed financial adviser ... "market cap bigger than $1 bill and people are willing to exchange hard assets for it? ... yep it's a currency"

O'Leary funds has how much under management?
http://www.olearyfunds.com/ (http://www.olearyfunds.com/)

So say he has foreign currency fund with NV ~ $1 bill
And he's looking at dabbling with 2%-3% of NV into BTC. Sounds like a good plan ... 2%-3%.

No, actually Bitcoin offers an incentive to grab it and hold it, i.e. keep it out of circulation, and a currency that doesn't circulate isn't much of a currency at all.

Well, in the past few days we've seen people very eager to spend their bitcoins on MtGox  :-X

Bitcoin does have one huge Black Swan that no one seems to address: the hundreds of thousands of early bitcoins that have never moved.  Are they lost?  Is someone holding them and looking to dump in the future?  Who knows?  Even the most strident anti bankster Libertarian must be tempted to cash out and set up themselves and their family and friends for life.

Calling a drop to zero and seeing a $50 double bottom is not getting it right.

I'm guessing those who lost money probably think the perma-bears are suddenly paragons of wisdom.

There's a better than average chance he's talking his book.

Some of the things he's said in recent posts match almost word for word how he would talk about gold and silver.

What happened there is he would loudly  trash talk them as investments in his blog but quietly mention somewhere in the middle they might be fine for trading and speculation. Then in his donator-only videos he'd mention the positions he was taking.

BTC is not going to zero, we just saw a manipulation made by insiders. First it broke-out $40 level and gone parabolic, their media friends gave them boost, and after that they decide enough,,, and sold everything... and made huge profits! Shame on you bast....s. Who lost? Of course the poor and uneducated one lost. Last 30 days has no meaning to keen miners. Remove the last 30 days data from the charts, really just remove the last 30 days of end of day data (EOD) from the charts and verify what is changed. N o t h i n g!

So, price is back at 20 days ago->omg bitcoin going to zero for this "karl denninger" ? (i don't even know him)  ::) Yeah sure

Anyway call me when price reach 0, so i'll buy some millions of bitcoin  ;)

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=209282

One Dollar Of Capital - A Definition And Challenge


RE: NY "BitLicenses"

Man... We've come a long way, have we?

Sure have, never forgetting  8)

I don't quite get why someone dug out especially this thread... I though this was a new thread when I read the headline because, well, the FUD actually never changes. Even if someone bought at $200, they's be at over 300% even now so, yeah... a Prof. Bitcorn quality prediction, I'd say...

Well O'leary made his money  ;D
Probally still making a killing when hes not on Shark Tank Dragons Den or yelling at people on CBC  ;D

This was after it hit a record high of 266 dollars (Deja Vu) (Dude made a killing in Edmonton for selling his house in Bitcoins too lol)

Sitting at 600 seems kind of calming when I think of it that way lol.

I brought this thread out because of NY's BitLicense efforts. In the proposed legislation one of the fundamental regulations is one dollar of capital.

I thought it fascinating that one of Bitcoins biggest detractors makes an excellent point for 100% reserves.

It's just a quirk of fate that Tickerguy is an enemy of Bitcoin.

He's completely devoted to the cult of the State, despite making it his life's work to expose how corrupt and evil it is.

He's got a strong background in programming, finance, and macro economics, so he knows exactly what Bitcoin represents. That's why he opposes it.

Karl Denninger does not want a world to exist in which governments no longer control the money.

IF bitcoin hit 0 (absolute zero) then it's not a discrete data anymore, so we going to use an analogue scale ...

My miner hardware weight more than 1 kilo ...

That's twisted  :o    Bitcoin certainly challenges rule makers, many things appear to be starting over from scratch with bitcoin.  Maybe he's afraid that people can't control government and bitcoin is govcoin? Personally, I see past it because I can count 100 good things for every 1 bad thing and I can see government as the consensus of the local/county/state/country blockchains.

- goodexcuses-one-satoshi

Always enjoy it when someone diggs up this old relics.
Nothing makes me feel more bullish!

Me too  ;D

FYI: I would say I knew Karl fairly well. I was an highly active member of his forums (and Gold Donator) for over four years. I was the one who explained how Bitcoin worked to him back in 2011/2012.

It's not that he's afraid people can't control government - that would make him favour Bitcoin - he blames the population for not controlling the government and holding them accountable for the Constitution.

So far this view has lead him to start two unsuccessful attempts at new political parties and numerous protests, and despite those failures he refuses to accept the possibility that the road to the solution to all the problems he's identified does not pass through politics.

I remember, hello again. - aka Ponzi_Unit

I wish I hadn't lost the login information to my original bitcointalk account (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=614), which matched my tickerforum account name, but it points at an email address I no longer have so there's no way to recover it.

He is old school. He thinks buying gold and silver is stupid too. That is when I tuned him out.

Bitcoin should be less than $10 by the first half of the month. Also already $10k+ according to some hyper-optismical hodlers from the forum.

I think people should have more care when speaking about bitcoin price and future.

In April 2013, KD was bashing BTC on tickerforum - but I noticed a nice looking chart and he was ranting didn't add up.

KD was an egotistical know-it-all - "told ya so" was his favorite saying.

It might have been your posts that convinced me -  I took the dive and bought my first bitcoin then.

Haven't looked back since.

Morning 2dogs  :) I wondered if that was you when I saw the moniker.

OP should feel bad

Is it that time of the year again? Ah no, it's already been quite some time since that statement. Good thing we're now well above $200... So there's that. Case closed.

Oh wait, another owned to a big mouth preacher man.  ::)

I'm not the same 2dogs over there.
I stopped going there April 2013 - do you still participate in KD forum?

He was constantly changing the rules and asking for "donations"  ::).
I think I paid $25 for the  couple of years I was there, so I got my moneys worth  ;D.

LOL at this guy. it could never get to zero -- support at $0.01 and below is simply WAY too strong to do it.  ;D

He was right about one thing though: "Bitcoins" on GOX went to zero.  :D

Yes, I posted over there as Ponzi_unit. While I thought that was an appropriate name for an ever inflating stock market where you only made money if you could convince your children to pay more for stocks than you did, I didn't think it was appropriate for bitcoin ;)

I can't wait to look at current threads about Bitcoin price predictions 5 years from now. So far every single thread understimated Bitcoin in one way or another. The trend doesn't seem to stop any time soon.

Just got banned from his twitter account.  ;D http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229235

I told him that the internet of thing is only possible with the Bitcoin protocol.

Well he's right what more is there to say?

Confirms why I left and never went back.  :D

He suffers from Bitcoin Envy. He missed the boat ride to the moon!

I was banned yesterday by Denninger from his market-ticker site for a short statement that had a point of view different from him.

That over the top reaction tells me that he is either a very insecure person or just plain crazy.

He is a power-tripper and will probably sue me for saying this.

lol he deleted his own post.

So, Bitcoin still hasn't gone to zero... Where are the cheap coins we've been promised? It's almost as if these people just make up fake claims and tell them to gullible people... I don't think that's very nice!

Who is Karl Denninger anyway? I don't think much of his predictions.

Same here. I poked some rather large holes in one of his posts regarding 9/11... my post was deleted I was banned from the site. Can't handle a little legitimate criticism? What a fucking pussy.

Hope you guys didn't donate too much to KD's circle jerk.
I've found this forum to have quite a few members who can run circles around KD blindfolded - and no "donations" required.

denninger is right about bitcoin going to zero ... sometime around the year 2386 ... he should liquidate his gold for cryopreservation so he can watch it

cases like this should not be discussed, if the price of Bitcoin returns to 0 then it is really manipulated like the OIL price,
and see that the OIL price has returned to normal at $ 14, Bitcoin cant go to zero!