Bitcoin Forum

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Gib' auf, du hast keine Chance! Lass' es uns beenden! Es ist einfacher für dich, viel einfacher. Du wirst sehen, es ist gleich vorbei. ;D


Reminds me of the old $13 resistance back in 2011. Those of us around long enough to still remember know how that went...


http://mos.totalfilm.com/images/t/the-10-coolest-death-scenes-of-the-90s-16-404-75.jpg

2011 was nowhere that intense though. 1 week after the top the price was still > $15. This is a slaughter.

The dimensions are bigger for sure. Back then, all people knew was up-up-up.

This time it's different:

- They already know the market can easily crash, so maybe patience is wearing thinner.
- There is more money involved - meaning if the backers of a certain price-level step aside, it is practically impossible to stop the momentum.
- We are still in No Man's Land. $50+ is not cheap for something that is not backed by much other than the hopes of future wealth.

The remaining factors are still the same though. Illiquid markets, weak infrastructure, no stabilizing forces in place to prevent over-speculation/mass-panic; and what good does a store of value do you, if it doesn't pay you back the stored value when you need it the most?

I expect to see single digits again. You simply can't do shit with your Bitcoins yet other than hold and/or sell back to fiat - and sooner or later a lot of people will come to terms with that, at which point we will see a price-normalization.

Interestingly enough, even if mass-adaption was to take place - I believe the forces of cashing-out will outweight the forces of buying in. You would need a massive amount of automatic buyers that are willing to take all those coins streaming back into the markets from $-priced goods/services. Those merchants won't wanna hold, that is not their business.

So how much $ really is in the BTC system per available coin. I'm not talking about recently traded coin, but available coin. Since people are certainly also withdrawing fiat, I doubt the answer is more than $10.

Find someone/something willing to buy up ALL remaining coins for a certain price (without actually doing so), and you have your fair price. The rest is just circle-jerking.

its not meant to be a get rich quick scheme.  its still better than holding fiat IMO.

How is that?  Even at its worst most people in Cyprus will not have lost as much purchasing power or stored value as people who bought above $100.  Fiat, in most countries, is a much, much safer place to store money than bitcoin.

@ proudhon

you seem to be the celebrity on bearish predictions ...

So what's your prediction for this week ... I am NOT asking day ..by day or minute by minute ...but for this week

high - ??

Low - ??



TIA

Well if it's supposed to be a currency there wouldn't be much point in speculating with it.

In reality, I think we're all just gamblers!

If anything the price is like a pyramid scheme... Early people get paid, late adopters get shafted

I believe Gox tried that, and got skewered for it. Just sayin'.

Well, you guys are crashing so fast my bearishness just can't keep up.  I think that push to $50 was the low and we'll be heading back up from here.

Hmmmmmmm contrarian indicator or not?  ::)

When? It would make sense for them to buy up small amounts here and there to maintain the image of high value for other investors to follow suit with their price expectation, but I doubt they have nearly enough money to catch a falling knife - that would be very stupid on their terms.

Then again, this is clearly an obvious problem with such high price-fluctuations: the power of early adopters to screw everyone over is simply too high.

I proposed this in a different thread before, but maybe we actually need a completely new Bitcoin system with the following attributes:

- no early adopters, the amount of coins in circulation is directly proportional to the amount of transactions/users
- early coin distribution could be similar in form to the original Bitcoin faucet (perhaps coupled with some randomness to prevent exploitation)
- some form of Bitcoin central bank, that pledges to buy up coins once under-valued, and sells them in times of higher-demand. This job could be divided into groups of many individuals (much like present day mining pools), with profits going into proof-of-transaction costs and in parts inflation increase of total monetary pool handled by the system + personal profit of participating/pledging individuals
- big money dumps are to be handled OTC, via auctions so not to destroy the Bitcoin ecosystem. What amounts a large dump is to be defined as percentage of the size of the ecosystem.

optional:

- no central exchanges
- ?

I believe this would make a lot more sense for a long-term successful crypto-currency system than the humbug we have now. Nobody knows how much coins are even still in circulation/destroyed/waiting to wipe out the next big wave.

Also, it doesn't have to happen tomorrow - a system like this would be a lot fairer to all market participants, regardless of their time of market entry. It could also run alongside the present day system, so people can choose whether or not they prefer gamble or stability.

No Roger, they shut down the exchange for the "cooloff." Have you forgotten already?

Also, don't be bitter you're not an early adopter. It's not going to change.

You could call it "Fedcoin".

My god, I just actually read his proposal.

We already have a system like that, you goddamn retard. It's called the US Dollar. Welfare is the faucet, the amount of coins in circulation are regulated proportionally to the trade via a little thing called fractional reserve banking and Fed buybacks, who also take care of the coins being over/under valued. Big money "dumps" still exist such as the French tried in 1973 or that guy that shorted the pound for a few billion, but generally you have nowhere to dump anyway.

Congratulations! Your perfect system already exists! You already use it! And guess what? You're still broke.

NEXT

You sound like a bull. This is worse then I thought.  ;D

I beg your pardon? My proposed system would not create new coins simply due to lack of economic activity (aka stimulus packages), but correlate to a certainly finite amount of users participating in the system. Furthermore, it could most certainly also be coupled with restrictions to prevent over-growth.

The point of such a system would be to prevent too many coins to fall into the hands of a few, while still accounting for inflation in its value (the bigger the $-pool, the higher the wealth/backed value of the coins within the system.

Would you be willing to specify why such a system doesn't work?

edit: Also, the faucet would not be meant as a welfare instrument at all - it simply be a tool to help promote initial distribution.

No, actually, it's rather too simple to waste my time explaining it to you. Try to build your system, then you tell me why it doesn't work. You could call it Equalcoin.

I don't have the time right now to do it myself (hence me throwing it out here to maybe spark some collaboration), but perhaps eventually I will. Unlike your perception I am very much interested in the success of a cryptocurrency that can both be used as a tool for store-of-wealth as well as a means to facilitate monetary transactions - something that Bitcoin fails to achieve (and in my eyes due to aforementioned issues always will fail to achieve).

So yeah, nobody has to contribute to anything, but if you do feel like you should or could then I am still waiting for arguments as to why such a system would fail.

You are calling a low of $50? *suspicious look*

With nothing strongly binding the value of your currency Roger, it will trade freely exactly the same as BTC. With something binding it, nobody would use it, because that's what they have fiat for.

I don't like charts, trend analysis, fundamentals or mass psychology.

I prefer bias and hot-linked images from films.

Sometimes I think I've wandered into Reddit by mistake.

To the world, this forum is the face of Bitcoin.

I do wonder what they think :)

Isn't that guy with the serial killer grin holding a BTC up in sharp focus also the "face" of bitcoin?

Not if you Google "bitcoin discussion" ;)

It's great to trade goods and services with. It's not good as a store of value. Mark my words.

Well, but it is backed by a pool of ever-increasing fiat funds. With a rising pool comes a rising value. In a way it would more resemble a stock than a fiat as the profits of the pool (raised through bid/ask spreads), would slowly raise the value of the money. Also, people could eventually buy themselves into the pool, thus further raising the wealth of the ecosystem (at minimally growing amount of coins in circulation). This isn't the same as fiat at all, that's the whole point. ;)

Hey man stop being realistic.  Don't you know it is the bears posts on the forums that are making the price go down.  One Bitcoin is clearly worth a billion dollars.  Us fools are just too in touch with reality to get it.  :D

And who is to control the increase of coins? Everything you've written suggests building a "new" monetary instrument built on the foundation of the current monetary system.

We do not need a central bank.

Bitcoin is in the early stages of price discovery, and as such, will have massive volatility as the FREE market discovers its value.

We have been given a means to throw off the shackles of repression, and many on this forum, and the public at
large, continue to call for it to be chained up. If you don't believe in bitcoin, don't use it. If you're allowing market manipulation to sway your views, you deserve to lose your freedom.

MYTH

Please, allow me to school you. Here are some things I can do with my bitcoins:
-Buy food at restaurants (one service contracts with over a thousand atm)
-Buy tons of random shit at sites like bitcoinstore and bitmit - computers, clothes, etc.
-Send money to relatives in other countries instantly
-Pay for a VPN and other internet services
-Buy a car (heck, buy ANYTHING from an individual who uses bitcoin)
-Operate an OTC exchange/broker service
-Buy precious metals like silver, gold, platinum, etc
-Buy from thousands and thousands of online merchants through bitpay (YES, BTC is currently too volatile so many merchants peg to USD, your point?)
-Evade income taxes so I don't have to pay for innocent children to get slaughtered by ObamaDrones (disclaimer: I don't even have to evade income taxes since my deductions allow for a TI lower than the minimum, no law-breaking here)
-Donate to many charities and non-profit organizations, as well as your favorite open-source projects
-Send money past borders in countries that have capital controls such as Cyprus and Argentina
-The current year's increase in price is appetizing
-Hedge against central bank inflation (deflation = people don't spend is a myth, gold and silver were used for thousands of years)
-Oh yeah, buy drugs and guns from sketchy .onion sites, and tits on stripcoin of course.

1) Bitcoin can't be used for anything except drugs and child porn
2) Deflation is bad, inflation is good
3) The iniquity of central banksters is replaced by the iniquity of early adoption, so we should have a central-bank-like mechanism in bitcoin, further reducing its decentralization
4) Fiat is good!
5) Bitcoin is guaranteed to fail, here's my sketchy, vaguely-defined alt-coin concept that rests on my complete misunderstanding of monetary theory, and that requires a manipulating regulatory body, that is also vaguely defined, but when you accuse me of making a Fedcoin or a centralized fiat, I flatly deny it.

etc. etc.

I think you have your answer. You have to have an incentive.