Bitcoin Forum

Based on my overall assessment of sentiment and fundamentals vs. price, with exponential growth since Jan. 2013 as the baseline trend outlook. Updated when I feel like it.

-5%


($58/BTC; Mild capitulation / mildly negative bubble, still may be some substantial capitulation to work through)

I've done some more analysis and think its actually more like

-4.333

I think your analysis is closest to mine of anyone on these forums, so it's good we got close to the same figures. (Unless that was tongue-in-cheek ;D)

I'm afraid you overestimated me, i just picked a number out of thin air.  :-[

So is yours a real number? what does it mean?

Disagree here.

Actually it's:

-5%

clearly you guys are incorrect [size=16]so the answer to the formula is [/size]][/font](5%5-5%)%[color]/]

it is self evident in this ch[size=18]a[/szie][size= 22pt]rt[/size]

http://s24.postimg.org/6dhewsop1/CHHERT.png

BTCBTCBTC

I am up 1200% since yesterday by following arepo's posts

The man is a goddam genius. Once you learn to read his charts, and get a feel for his advanced analytics skill, you'll make some major profits!

That's true! The 5-edged yellow skewed diamond is actually a very bullish pattern!

the hardest I've laughed in about 10 days  :D

One of the more sensible TAs on bitcoin I've seen in the past few years.

not laughed so hard since HowToBasic :D

Bull up-side-down! I see what you did there, triple move

Hahaha love that technical analysis  :P

+1

It's that plus a bunch of other subjective things I sense and observe. But you're right, I should post a chart. Computer is in the shop, using smartphone for everything. Too lazy for image editing using Skitch or something now.

+5%

I think sentiment is now pretty balanced between bulls and bears in the $90-$110 range. I was surprised the price dropped to $50 yesterday. Luckily, I took advantage of the panic and bought more bitcoins.

Good idea, perhaps. Calculating...

How the fuck do you go from -5% to 30% in two days? Because the price went up? Why not just link to the current MtGox USD value of Bitcoin.

No shit it's +30%, BTC is skyrocketing. That +30% would have been more useful before the rally, like when you were posting -5%.

So it's completely useless? Keep us updated then!

See OP for the methodology. It's a number pulled from my nether-reaches, with a basic grounding in exponential growth since January, tempered by news, sentiment here and on reddit, a few obvious technical considerations, and various miscellaneous indicators that remain in an exponential trend.

In a rapid upsurge, like today, there isn't enough time for most of those things to change so the Bubble-o-Meter will often look similar to a simple percentage change from the exponential trendline (note that it's a lot lower than that right now; the change off exponential is pushing 60% now - at the end of the day this meter is just my personal assessment).

Whether 30% should be taken as a sign to sell, and how much to sell, depends on your portfolio and goals. I don't day trade, so it has to exceed 50% to get my attention.

lol... drawing straight lines on logscale again?

I remember seeing that approach in 2011, by which we'd be at some quadrillions of dollars per Bitcoin by now.

Perfect. Just perfect.

We need more analysis like you, sir.

That's plagiarism, my 3 year old drew that!  >:(

As long as the fundamentals continue to grow exponentially, yes. In 2011 the fundamentals were not growing in concert with the price.

Epic!