Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Francesco on April 16, 2013, 02:16:17 PM



Title: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Francesco on April 16, 2013, 02:16:17 PM
FACT: barring falling knives (which this isn't, it's just an estraordinarily strong bear) no major increase in price started right away suddently inverting a fast decline. At least, no one that was not negated almost as suddently.
The real rallys always build very gradually from long periods of low volatility. This is only reasonabble, confidence needs to build step by step -and now it has been deadly shaken.  

So, in the present conditions (which are just the opposite), there are really only two possible outcomes:

1) price stabilizes. So in a matter of months it might start rising again significantly... then you will have the occasion to buy almost as cheaply (at least in comparison with the gains that will come); but with much less risk.

or

2) price drops even lower. And you can lose 20%-30%-50% in a whim.

Hence my question. Why buy? Unless you are thinking really short-term -and with this volatility, I mean hours.

Everyone else would be much better off not buying at all. Much less risk of losing everything; not much to lose anyway, since there simply is nothing better at the horizon than flat stability.

It's probably best also to remove bids: as you can see, bounces are negligible, so there isn't even the opportunity to sell before it falls even lower. We went from 100$ to 50$, and now we are barely over 60$. Anyone that had bids anywhere from 100$ down to 70$ (and was not locked to his screen) has been quite screwed.

Let the price go down. Let's remove all speculations (in our own interest) -and let demand be only driven by the ones that really do want the coins for some real-world added value.
We have foundamentals, haven't we? This is just the moment to test them. What would the price be then?


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Meman on April 16, 2013, 02:19:26 PM
Some sheeps may want to average down and dump all their bitcoins once the price has bottomed out.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: checkers6676 on April 16, 2013, 02:20:33 PM
proudhon says now is the time to buy. he's been right before


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: RodeoX on April 16, 2013, 02:23:49 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Rampion on April 16, 2013, 02:25:21 PM
proudhon says now is the time to buy. he's been right before

Proudhon was saying that BTC was a bubble "just about to burst" at $20. Calling the top every week is very easy to be right.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Meman on April 16, 2013, 02:27:36 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.
Thats what bitcoins are made for: buying goods and services. But in times with high volatility you better hurry with spending, once you've aquired some bitcoins (everything else is speculation).


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: XXthetimeisnowXX on April 16, 2013, 02:30:06 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.

PLUS1 !!! I dont use this only as a get rich quick sceam. buy some shit already.



hummmm speculation and then speculate ..... after that ill catch teh bottom and speculate on that then ill speculate on the speculation idea of speculation. but what do you think should i speculate or speculate about speculate with the forum of speculator. hummmmm well all i know is that im going to speculate!!!!!


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: RodeoX on April 16, 2013, 02:32:13 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.
Thats what bitcoins are made for: buying goods and services. But in times with high volatility you better hurry with spending, once you've aquired some bitcoins (everything else is speculation).
That's what I do. Tonight I will be looking at some gun parts for BTC. If I want to buy I will first buy some bitcoins then send. I do have some in storage, but all paid for with profit, I like playing with the casino's money.
 ;D


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Francesco on April 16, 2013, 02:34:12 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.

Then you sould buy :)

I really wonder how many really use bitcoins, even in this forum... well, I might just start a thread to ask.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: JordanL on April 16, 2013, 02:36:37 PM
By the end of this month we will never see sub-$100 Bitcoins again. Even  I couldn't resist selling a few hundred at $200+, but this is the perfect time to buy. Mainstream awareness and adaptation continues to skyrocket.


Title: none
Post by: arepo on April 16, 2013, 02:38:25 PM
Quote
Why on earth would you buy now?

because there are people like you asking this question, but no one seems to be selling...


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Qoheleth on April 16, 2013, 02:40:00 PM
The short answer is that I'm buying to replace the BTC that I sold at a higher price.

If you want the long answer, I'd be happy to give it.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Meman on April 16, 2013, 02:43:02 PM
This is the perfect time to buy. Mainstream awareness and adaptation continues to skyrocket.
Not true: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: JordanL on April 16, 2013, 02:45:05 PM
This is the perfect time to buy. Mainstream awareness and adaptation continues to skyrocket.
Not true: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q


Right... yesterday was more than 3x what the all time high was a month ago.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: dg2010 on April 16, 2013, 02:50:47 PM
Mainstream awareness and adaptation continues to skyrocket.

You are being manipulated. Most of the information coming out about mainstream adoption is false. It simply is NOT true. Unfortunately most people believe what they read on the internet.

Right now Bitcoins largest trade volume is questionable, eg. Not entirely legal in most countries.

I am quite certain that Bitpays statement of $5m in March to be complete and utter BS. Either that or they have lost an absolute SHIT load of money and will be unable to pay their creditors.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: bitcon on April 16, 2013, 02:54:20 PM
proudhon says now is the time to buy. he's been right before

mo, peoudhon is predicting single digits, lol


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: SlipperySlope on April 16, 2013, 03:04:27 PM
I would not buy now, and in fact have sold bitcoin as high as 255, anticipating this crash in order to buy back cheaper coins in several months.

Bubbles are not common enough that people learn from them.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Wuji on April 16, 2013, 03:06:23 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.
Thats what bitcoins are made for: buying goods and services. But in times with high volatility you better hurry with spending, once you've aquired some bitcoins (everything else is speculation).

If you are still using MtGox this depends on whether you actually can.  >:(


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Wuji on April 16, 2013, 03:07:16 PM
proudhon says now is the time to buy. he's been right before

mo, peoudhon is predicting single digits, lol

In another thread he said just an hour or so ago that the new low is $50.  I believe that is what op was referring to.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: ElectricMucus on April 16, 2013, 03:08:39 PM
proudhon says now is the time to buy. he's been right before

mo, peoudhon is predicting single digits, lol

In another thread he said just an hour or so ago that the new low is $50.  I believe that is what op was referring to.

He's playing you guys like a fiddle.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: bootlace on April 16, 2013, 03:13:01 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.

What are you doing in the speculation forums then?  :D


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: RodeoX on April 16, 2013, 03:15:35 PM
Because I use it to buy things? I do not speculate and really don't care about the price.

What are you doing in the speculation forums then?  :D
Just answering the question.   ;D


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: bozak on April 16, 2013, 04:28:07 PM
FACT: barring falling knives (which this isn't, it's just an estraordinarily strong bear) no major increase in price started right away suddently inverting a fast decline. At least, no one that was not negated almost as suddently.
The real rallys always build very gradually from long periods of low volatility. This is only reasonabble, confidence needs to build step by step -and now it has been deadly shaken.  

So, in the present conditions (which are just the opposite), there are really only two possible outcomes:

1) price stabilizes. So in a matter of months it might start rising again significantly... then you will have the occasion to buy almost as cheaply (at least in comparison with the gains that will come); but with much less risk.

or

2) price drops even lower. And you can lose 20%-30%-50% in a whim.

Hence my question. Why buy? Unless you are thinking really short-term -and with this volatility, I mean hours.

Everyone else would be much better off not buying at all. Much less risk of losing everything; not much to lose anyway, since there simply is nothing better at the horizon than flat stability.

It's probably best also to remove bids: as you can see, bounces are negligible, so there isn't even the opportunity to sell before it falls even lower. We went from 100$ to 50$, and now we are barely over 60$. Anyone that had bids anywhere from 100$ down to 70$ (and was not locked to his screen) has been quite screwed.

Let the price go down. Let's remove all speculations (in our own interest) -and let demand be only driven by the ones that really do want the coins for some real-world added value.
We have foundamentals, haven't we? This is just the moment to test them. What would the price be then?

You have reasonable points.  However, your basic premise is that bitcoin will follow the established patterns that stocks, bonds, and mature currency markets follow.  I think it is a mistake to make this assumption.  One of the primary reasons that the stock market follows these patterns (technical analysis) is because the traders believe in technical analysis.  In the bitcoin market right now, there are some people that are from traditional finance backgrounds, but I would argue that the majority are not and the majority do not care about technical indicators and historical patterns.  When the bias in favor of following technical patterns is removed, then the likelihood that the instrument in question follows said patterns is greatly reduced. 

Therefore, when considering what will happen to the BTC echange rates going forward, there is a significant chance that BTC will now follow any boom/bust bubble/crash pattern previously seen in financial markets.  Add in the concept that bitcoin valuation is incredibly complex and I think you get some really strange trading patterns that will not match those seen with most financial instruments. 




Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: BadBear on April 16, 2013, 04:30:26 PM
proudhon says now is the time to buy. he's been right before

https://i.imgur.com/6DWGhk5.gif


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Zaih on April 16, 2013, 06:19:34 PM
DIRTY MANIPULATOR!!

<3


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: alexh on April 16, 2013, 06:21:12 PM
Bitcoin will be worth more in future, at least I think so...


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: zeroday on April 16, 2013, 06:25:14 PM
I buy because I clearly understand what bitcoin is, how it works, and what perspectives it does have.


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: JordanL on April 16, 2013, 06:32:35 PM
Looks like someone who bought when this thread was started made a pretty good call...


Title: Re: Why on earth would you buy now?
Post by: Dr3AM$cAp3 on April 16, 2013, 06:39:39 PM
proudhon says now is the time to buy. he's been right before

https://i.imgur.com/6DWGhk5.gif
:D

One of the main things I have learned in this forum is not to listen to that guy.  

Of course, he could pick up on that and start giving advice that's the opposite of what he really thinks.

Then the manipulation will be in full effect. :}