Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: arepo on April 16, 2013, 07:15:40 PM



Title: fear not, bulls!
Post by: arepo on April 16, 2013, 07:15:40 PM
so it seems many bulls still have their fingers in their ears, but --

as long as you know we're just playing musical chairs, and you are comfortable with that, let's take a look at the picture:

http://s1.postimg.org/dhwcb2byn/bullishwedge.png

just a small correction to the new trend. the bullish wedge formation forms as a consolidation pattern in a bull run, where the market drops slowly on low volume to find the support.

how high are we going, everyone?


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: superduh on April 16, 2013, 07:19:26 PM
i'm on the sidelines now. not for the weak of heart.
it will settle, somewhere and then i will look more into it.
now, it's just gambling
but, i do like the graph.
it seems like the last 24 hours had more volume than during/after the crash.
good thing or bad? + who knows how many people are buying and selling back and forth to each other


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: lucif on April 16, 2013, 07:20:19 PM
too small interval for wedge imo


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: arepo on April 16, 2013, 07:23:31 PM
too small interval for wedge imo

it is quite small, and accuracy suffers with granularity, but these patterns are theoretically fractal in nature, and should occur on any scale of the price function, within practical limits.

--arepo


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: lucif on April 16, 2013, 07:25:10 PM
I noticed in this market that useful figures should be not less 10 hours in length. Better 48-50 and more. All other provide false hints.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: evolve on April 16, 2013, 07:25:45 PM
I dont know, the closer veiw still looks pretty bearish to me, but I am far from an expert.

http://i49.tinypic.com/j8cg8j.png


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: arepo on April 16, 2013, 07:40:56 PM
keeping the wedge in mind...

http://s1.postimg.org/dhwcb2byn/bullishwedge.png

-===-

...


the question is, very simply, whether the support will hold:

http://s11.postimg.org/51zs9wycj/movingsupport.png

-===-

and before anything else is said, i know it is unconventional to apply these methods to such a small scale, but i do believe that price has an inherent fractal pattern and that triangles do form but are sometimes, or often, simply outweighed by noise in the candles.



Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: NamelessOne on April 16, 2013, 07:46:43 PM
I've been watching that moving support all day.  ;)


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: dandirk on April 16, 2013, 07:55:34 PM
dunno eveything seems to be negative... MACD, EMA (10/21), Slow Stoch...  (Warning I am a noob just learning, do NOT make any financial actions based on this)

Too rich of a bet for my blood with the info we have.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Wuji on April 16, 2013, 07:59:00 PM
OKCupid announces possible adoption of BTC which causes buyers and we have the bulls who are buying, thinking they are getting value.  I spent my coins I bought yesterday at $10USD more than I paid which is more profit.  Wake me up when the bull traps are finished so, I can buy back in please.  :D


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: notme on April 16, 2013, 08:01:59 PM
dunno eveything seems to be negative... MACD, EMA (10/21), Slow Stoch...  (Warning I am a noob just learning, do NOT make any financial actions based on this)

Too rich of a bet for my blood with the info we have.

Everything is oversold.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: superduh on April 16, 2013, 08:09:51 PM
again, noone can answer the one simple question.
who are buying and selling.
no way to tell if it's the same people putting it both buy and sell orders at the same time.
all the metrics don't mean anything when it's impossible to tell how many non-big players there are and how many big-players are moving everything around.

volume doesn't equal unique volume in terms of people


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: dandirk on April 16, 2013, 08:11:01 PM
dunno eveything seems to be negative... MACD, EMA (10/21), Slow Stoch...  (Warning I am a noob just learning, do NOT make any financial actions based on this)

Too rich of a bet for my blood with the info we have.

Everything is oversold.

Doh... gotta remember that!...


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Wuji on April 16, 2013, 08:14:31 PM
again, noone can answer the one simple question.
who are buying and selling.
no way to tell if it's the same people putting it both buy and sell orders at the same time.
all the metrics don't mean anything when it's impossible to tell how many non-big players there are and how many big-players are moving everything around.

volume doesn't equal unique volume in terms of people

That is not a simple question and it is not generally available information on any other investments I've made on currency, stocks, bonds, or commodities.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: ElectricMucus on April 16, 2013, 08:21:02 PM
Back in the days, trolling....


oh nevermind.
NICE CHART!


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: superduh on April 16, 2013, 08:24:24 PM
again, noone can answer the one simple question.
who are buying and selling.
no way to tell if it's the same people putting it both buy and sell orders at the same time.
all the metrics don't mean anything when it's impossible to tell how many non-big players there are and how many big-players are moving everything around.

volume doesn't equal unique volume in terms of people

That is not a simple question and it is not generally available information on any other investments I've made on currency, stocks, bonds, or commodities.


i know. i was making somewhat of a point. but this is what makes this much more easily to be manipulated at this moment. for all we know 80% of transactions could be done just by 10 people which wouldn't be indicative of the actual sentiment. only way is if mtgox tells us which i doubt they ever will


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: notme on April 16, 2013, 08:31:18 PM
dunno eveything seems to be negative... MACD, EMA (10/21), Slow Stoch...  (Warning I am a noob just learning, do NOT make any financial actions based on this)

Too rich of a bet for my blood with the info we have.

Everything is oversold.

Doh... gotta remember that!...

Ever have a stats class?

For most datasets, 95% of the data is within 2 standard deviations of the mean.  Get too far from your moving averages and you'll snap back to them.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: dandirk on April 16, 2013, 09:10:28 PM
dunno eveything seems to be negative... MACD, EMA (10/21), Slow Stoch...  (Warning I am a noob just learning, do NOT make any financial actions based on this)

Too rich of a bet for my blood with the info we have.

Everything is oversold.

Doh... gotta remember that!...

Ever have a stats class?

For most datasets, 95% of the data is within 2 standard deviations of the mean.  Get too far from your moving averages and you'll snap back to them.

lol probably 20 years ago lol... Much to learn...

Good tip if you were in right away and got out quick for a good 10% gain it looks like...  I should know not to doubt the OP!


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: arepo on April 17, 2013, 06:11:46 AM
dunno eveything seems to be negative... MACD, EMA (10/21), Slow Stoch...  (Warning I am a noob just learning, do NOT make any financial actions based on this)

Too rich of a bet for my blood with the info we have.

mid-term is kind of grim although (don't tell anyone) i think we may have found a bottom already...

short-term is definitely very oversold.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Frozenlock on April 17, 2013, 06:21:26 AM
Aaaaaand I sold at $56 hoping for $30. Damn you bears!


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: just1nmc on April 17, 2013, 06:26:45 AM
Aaaaaand I sold at $56 hoping for $30. Damn you bears!

Lol, same price I bought back in at. Thanks for those  :)


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Frozenlock on April 17, 2013, 06:29:13 AM
I can feel the tension... major upward trend in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: just1nmc on April 17, 2013, 06:32:24 AM
I can feel the tension... major upward trend in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...

Nice call. I'd like to see more support than just the big wall at $70 though.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Frozenlock on April 17, 2013, 06:38:20 AM
The huge wall that's even bigger than before.

Started at 12k, now at 19k...


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: muyuu on April 17, 2013, 06:38:55 AM
Aaaaaand I sold at $56 hoping for $30. Damn you bears!

That train is well gone.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Frozenlock on April 17, 2013, 06:42:49 AM
I know, I know...

So, panic buy planned today?


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: muyuu on April 17, 2013, 06:51:42 AM
I know, I know...

So, panic buy planned today?

Might dip a bit into the 60s but I'd buy right now just in case. Can't get enough of these sweet coins.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Frozenlock on April 17, 2013, 06:54:27 AM
Already done. Costly mistake is costly.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: arepo on April 17, 2013, 07:01:38 AM

update:

-===-

http://s18.postimg.org/pf1p71w4p/movingsupport.png

-===-

after a brief few moments of uncertainty, it seems the support is actually holding. this is very bullish short-term.


Title: Re: fear not, bulls!
Post by: Frozenlock on April 17, 2013, 07:07:04 AM
Don't forget the moving averages.

BUY BUY BUY!!  ;D