Title: EV, BEP In martingale? Post by: puremage111 on February 08, 2017, 07:47:57 AM Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you.
Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations. Winning chance : 98% Profit : 1% of bet Betting calculation Start bet : 100 satoshi If lose in streak 1st : 100 2nd : 10,000 3rd : 1,000,000 Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 $0.10 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4% Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 $10-11 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%. 1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct? 2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3? 3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of $50? is there way to calculate it? Title: Re: EV, BEP In martingale? Post by: ArdiPrabowo on February 08, 2017, 08:13:15 AM if you use profit setting is low profit and you use martiangle strategy
you money can fast all lost, marti angle is not good if use stake profit odds only use 1% Title: Re: EV, BEP In martingale? Post by: mOgliE on February 08, 2017, 12:40:33 PM Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you. Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations. Winning chance : 98% Profit : 1% of bet Betting calculation Start bet : 100 satoshi If lose in streak 1st : 100 2nd : 10,000 3rd : 1,000,000 Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 $0.10 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4% Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 $10-11 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%. 1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct? 2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3? 3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of $50? is there way to calculate it? 1/ yup, you know how to maths well done 2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3... 3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly. Title: Re: EV, BEP In martingale? Post by: puremage111 on February 08, 2017, 01:43:26 PM Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you. Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations. Winning chance : 98% Profit : 1% of bet Betting calculation Start bet : 100 satoshi If lose in streak 1st : 100 2nd : 10,000 3rd : 1,000,000 Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 $0.10 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4% Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 $10-11 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%. 1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct? 2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3? 3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of $50? is there way to calculate it? 1/ yup, you know how to maths well done 2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3... 3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly. For 2) I mean if you have $50 Will you prefer this setting Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 2 time in row Total cost for each 2 streak loss : $0.10 Or Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 3 time in row Total cost for each 3 streak loss : $10 Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose $0.10 x 100 OR $10 x 1 I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/ Title: Re: EV, BEP In martingale? Post by: BlockEye on February 08, 2017, 01:55:20 PM Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you. Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations. Winning chance : 98% Profit : 1% of bet Betting calculation Start bet : 100 satoshi If lose in streak 1st : 100 2nd : 10,000 3rd : 1,000,000 Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 $0.10 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4% Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 $10-11 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%. 1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct? 2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3? 3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of $50? is there way to calculate it? 1/ yup, you know how to maths well done 2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3... 3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly. For 2) I mean if you have $50 Will you prefer this setting Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 2 time in row Total cost for each 2 streak loss : $0.10 Or Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 3 time in row Total cost for each 3 streak loss : $10 Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose $0.10 x 100 OR $10 x 1 I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/ I think option is much better. If you restart your bet after 2 streak. You will just end up on a loop process until you reach the point of break even. You will just waste your time there. It is better to risk and keep roll over. Just don't play your settings for long period of time because the possibility of hitting the long red streak is increasing everytime the game duration is extending Title: Re: EV, BEP In martingale? Post by: shintosai on February 08, 2017, 02:01:23 PM Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you. Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations. Winning chance : 98% Profit : 1% of bet Betting calculation Start bet : 100 satoshi If lose in streak 1st : 100 2nd : 10,000 3rd : 1,000,000 Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 $0.10 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4% Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 $10-11 Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%. 1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct? 2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3? 3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of $50? is there way to calculate it? 1/ yup, you know how to maths well done 2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3... 3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly. For 2) I mean if you have $50 Will you prefer this setting Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 2 time in row Total cost for each 2 streak loss : $0.10 Or Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 3 time in row Total cost for each 3 streak loss : $10 Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose $0.10 x 100 OR $10 x 1 I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/ I think option is much better. If you restart your bet after 2 streak. You will just end up on a loop process until you reach the point of break even. You will just waste your time there. It is better to risk and keep roll over. Just don't play your settings for long period of time because the possibility of hitting the long red streak is increasing everytime the game duration is extending Title: Re: EV, BEP In martingale? Post by: mOgliE on February 08, 2017, 02:26:08 PM For 2) I mean if you have $50 Will you prefer this setting Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 2 time in row Total cost for each 2 streak loss : $0.10 Or Start : 100 Increase : x100 on loss Restart when lose 3 time in row Total cost for each 3 streak loss : $10 Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose $0.10 x 100 OR $10 x 1 I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/ Well then the second one is slightly better I'd say but there is no real difference. What you propose is basically a Martingale with small odds. The only difference with a classical Martingale is that you won't lose often and you'll win only extremely small profits when you win... |