Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin prices took a dramatic drop yesterday, despite having given indications that price wanted to go higher.  Prices have rallied back to almost the high, but there are now indications that bulls should be wary.

Elliott Wave theory suggests that corrective waves often take a 5-3-5 pattern.  In this case, it is often the case that the 1st and 3rd waves are related to one another in a Fibonacci relationship.  In other words, the third wave might be .618 of the first wave, or often, the waves might be the same size in terms of price.

That is exactly what we saw yesterday.  The collapse occurred just as the second wave reached the same price range as the first.  See the picture below:

https://cdn4.cryptocoinsnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/020917a.jpg

As we know, one should “never say never” in the trading business.  There are big players who make their living trying to run stops, and otherwise try to manipulate the charts to their benefit.  However, I have long suspected this rally from the swing low was a wave B of an A-B-C corrective wave.  The fact that price dropped so strongly when the waves reached the same size makes me suspect that wave B might have just ended.  If so, then wave C is beginning, which will likely test the 750 low.

In the event that price rallies above the recent swing high of 1069 (Kraken) then my stated concerns will be shown to be likely in error.  We will see….

Happy trading!

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/dramatic-fall-in-bitcoin-price/ (https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/dramatic-fall-in-bitcoin-price/)

Every TA coming from CryptoCoinsNews should be taken with a huge load of salt. Mostly they come up with certain analysis after something happened, where they basically just rehash everything that happened already. So far none of their analysis have turned out to be worthwhile.

CCN in general;

If the price goes up> we expect the price to continue increasing.

Few days later...

If the price goes down> from here we expect to continue going down.

Few days later...

Recovering price> price is recovering as expected.

LOL.

the price took a nosedive to 920 and swung in range 910-970$ up and down
his 750$ looks very unlikely ,resistance at 920 is strong,but he predicted a drop in price nontheless
so much for the "less volatility because china introduced exchange fees"
we are talking about 10% drop in less than an hour and then 5% recovery

I've enjoyed your post very much. Indeed that's not so hard to "predict" anything like they do.

The price is climbing up already so they were wrong in their "Fibonacci" predictions.

Yes, to say the least. A dirty little secret is that even the most respected TA on Wall St. rarely does better than random chance.

Its going to take some time to "dig out" from this decline.

We've been here before - 9 days ago, to be exact. So I'm not really quaking in my boots that we've tumbled. My only concern would be if we end up aimlessly sideways without any Chinese trade. Volumes at Bitfinex, GDAX and Bitstamp seem adequate. There's no way to "arb" any price differences in the Chinese exchanges since their money spigots are shut, so that will limit the selling pressure for a while.

It all is going to end up like before, where we work out sideways and such and then manage to peek above 1,000 again. I'd like to see a solid month above 1K, personally, but we haven't managed much staying power so far.