Bitcoin Forum

The supply of circulating BTC is now less, at least for a month or possibly longer. Should not a decrease in available supply increase the price?

You can still get money out of those exchanges by selling your BTC. Who wouldn't do that just in case? And there certainly won't be as many buyers as there once were on there.

Ah. That makes sense. I didn't know they could sell the BTC.

Fear tactic.  BTC holders at other exchanges start to worry the same freeze might happen to them.

Even if this did result in a smaller supplky due to frozen coins people are still going to panic since china is/was such a big player in the game. Thankfully china and the pboc seem to be having much less of an effect on the price now which is good all round. Ive used this opportunity to buy a bit more in the dip.  It might go down more tomorrow i dont know but if it does best to make the best of it while you can.

"Hey it's the assman!"  I loved that episode.

Fusilli Jerry

Did the price increase right after the Bitfinex hack?

If you don't know, Bitcoin crashed back then to below 500 dollars (from above 600), and it had been hanging around 550 dollars for some time thereafter. And the bitcoins are in fact not frozen, the exchanges you refer to still allow folks to sell their coins for the Chinese Yuan and withdraw the fiat proceeds. So it is hardly going to promote further growth in prices any time soon. We may see the price plunging again tomorrow (when Chinese traders wake up in a few hours). In any case, everyone had been (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1765221.msg17770490#msg17770490) warned before the shit actually hit the fan

I agree that the price will fall for some time. But I am sure that in the beginning of March, it will grow again. The news is not very good for Bitcoin

That remains to be seen actually

The next few days will cast some light on what could happen in the future, but even right now we see that the price is unexpectedly very resilient at these levels. It seems like folks have already adopted to such news from China and take this as a chance to get into Bitcoin while it hasn't yet risen higher. I guess it will take a lot of manipulation to bring the price below the 800 dollar mark (at least, for long enough). Basically, the Chinese exchanges are out of the equation currently, so things can't get substantially worse than that. It looks like there is plenty of demand from both Europe and America to support Bitcoin now

This is about confidence and not supply, if that happen to those exchanges then what will happen to other exchanges? So confidence gets lower and with it the price, also it seems the supply has not decreased since they can still sell their coins and this causes and even bigger decrease in the price.

I still think that it is dangerous to rely on the news. Specially from some particular. I will ask what they think people who sold to 726 euros last month, when they heard for the first time that China would begin to piss his Cheesy exchanges
The price will continue to dance as it does right now and we shall get used to see this

OkCoin & Huobi are now freezing withdrawal as well. This is not good news for the bitcoin community.


 

Ah! Maybe your calculations can be opposite! People having Bitcoin may try to get rid of it and sell it on exchanges for other web money while those who don't have Bitcoin may not wanna have them now due to ban of exchanges. This will has drastic impact upon demand and price will fall!
"Bitcoin is most difficult security to predict!"

i suspect it's because of panic selling caused by their exchange and not because of chinese people


if they can still trade i see no issue, for them and the price shoudl recover quickly

The price has actually increased to 1000$ after it was dropped to 700$ due to the market manipulation done by CHinese Exchangers. But after PBOC inspection bitcoins price has started again to climb until it reach 1000$. But as of this moment the price of bitcoin has decreased and the reason is not clear as to what country has brought major impact to bitcoins price after China.

That's what I'm contemplating but you know economic principles do not always have direct implications and sometimes there's the need to tweak them. The Chinese are having issues with Bitcoin and let's hope it turns out good as always.

As discussed earlier, it is possible to sell BTC to get money in the form of fiat currency, so many people are likely to dump in those exchanges. I think that the price drop should occur only in the exchanges that are suffering this type of interference, but it seems that the panic selling spreads to other parts of the market.

24 Hour volume is $403,038,000. It's not less, it's more than the usual.

Bitstamp market is showing major drop in the bitcoin prices. There is still BTCC allowing withdrawals.[1] These measures are taken for AML and KYC related issues. There is possibility of price drop once withdrawal ban is lifter from other bitcoin exchanges.

[1] http://www.coindesk.com/two-chinas-biggest-exchanges-stop-bitcoin-withdrawals/ (http://www.coindesk.com/two-chinas-biggest-exchanges-stop-bitcoin-withdrawals/)

I don't think it is actually like what you are saying. Basically most of the investors are from china and they bought from those exchanges so if they want cash they can easily exchange back. But when China started to frozen those exchanges as usual the Chinese started fearing so they started selling the bitcoins. This same thing happened when Chinese bank declared that bitcoin is a risky investment because of that there was panic.
So basically the price drops are mostly related to china.

Currently those people who want to buy at lower price are spreading some bad news about bitcoin that it will drop that is why the price is lowered a little currently but sooner it will boost up much higher in the coming months as you are right the supply has decreased much and the demand is going to be normal and at that time it will boost up in price.

Not when the people affected dump their coins to avoid their funds being frozen for a month. That is why the price suddenly dropped because of the panic. If they convert their fiat back to bitcoin on another exchange, the price will push back up. Then it will be back to the point just before the panic dump.

I think the impact of such inferences should not have been extended that way, but panic is something that some people have not yet learned to control. That's why the price goes down so sharply, and there are people willing to spread FUD, because they saw it as an opportunity to make money.

People's Bank of China(PBOC) is very obvious. Whenever the bitcoin's price surges to $1000.  PBOC quickly do something to make bitcoin traders panic and sell their btc. So the bitcoin's price drops back again. But now it doesn't much affects the bitcoin's price this time. I guess their trick is not working anymore. Expect PBOC will intensify their actions against bitcoin.

Some folks are panic selling, other folks are panic buying

Other than that, you should keep in mind that the trading volume can be heavily misleading. And I don't mean that it should necessarily be fake. You could get high trading volumes by a lower number of coins if they just change hands more often. For example, yesterday I made a few trades, namely, bought back what I had sold before, then rinse, repeat. So my trading volume exceeded a few times the quantity of coins actually used for trading. There is nothing better than a good old volatility bout (well, arbitrage may in fact be better)

Bitcoin price was never going to rise  as china is known to have the most cryptocurrency  investors and chinas central bank is crushing all the gains by pressuring exchangers which affect investors confidence negatively,which is why we seeing prices dragging below $1000 now.

That may still happen

The next few days will determine the short-term trend. The news of the major Chinese exchanges locking Bitcoin withdrawals (as well as other cryptocurrencies) is by far more serious and "real" than the warning that the PBoC issued in early January, but Bitcoin has gone down less than 100 dollars. It feels like there are no more fools left. If things continue to develop along this path, China will soon become irrelevant (at least, in respect to Bitcoin trading)

What people think that "should" happen in the world of finances based on some economical theory is mostly wrong. Not that its wrong most of the times its usualy the oposite thats happening.

You think that the price should rise because there are less bitcoins to be sold. But what if I tell you that its the number of bitcoins that was leveraged was creating the price.

In other words most of the time its the supply that increase the price of product not the demand. If someone has a lot of supply of something he is encouraged to make a positive pr and marketing of their products. And in todays world its the marketing that sets the price.

Certainly, votality made by Chinese bitcoin investors was intended to make money from people that can' handle their emotion.

However, after of what happened on tge first weeek of januar, it seems like people aren't affected or suprised on the dumped made yesterday. I think they learned that it would still get back to $1000+, and that's great. If we would continue not to be fooled by false volume of dumps, those dumpers would certainly make no profit.

I have a much simpler explanation

To tell the truth, I don't see how marketing can be relevant in this case at all, when the price changes "in real time" together with the event causing this change. But that's mostly irrelevant since as I have just said everything can be explained without sticking to obscure ideas (like the one you are proposing). And this has no connection to economic theories, either. It is easier than that. Basically, price moves in the direction which is most profitable to those market participants who have most say. These are typically called price manipulors. Since Bitcoin can be generally considered as a zero-sum game, the latter can only profit by stripping the rest of the trading folk off of their money. And the rule of thumb is that the price usually goes in the direction where most traders are going to lose their coins either directly or indirectly, i.e. lose profits (e.g. when everyone and their dog expect the price to fall and it starts rising)

No the price hike is not because of that .because the exchanges froze the price of bitcoins will become hanging for a quite bit of a time .

Freezing exchange activities also might lead to a decrease in demand unlike you have mentioned only about surplus supply. So, we cannot be 100% sure only for positive impact on bitcoin prices due to China exchange's withdrawal pause incident. Anyway we can assume less activities from Chinese people which may impact on bitcoin price levels, let us wait for directions.

The effect is still the same, after a big price dip, we are seeing a great price increase now. What we see will says it all, we should stop speculating on that negative things that will happen, bitcoin is strong and the actions of the PBOC is not enough to make a huge crisis.

But they still running the exchange for well and i didn't thought if the PBOC's act was disturbing bitcoin at least it just give a little correction for the price of bitcoin and in this time the bitcoin is showing to us about its potential.

From the way I see it, we always streamline our thinking that the determinant of the price of bitcoin whether on the increase or decrease, depends in just one factor but thats not the case most times as there are cumulative amount of other factors that account for such changes in price although there are some that have influence more than the other but that does not remove the fact that there are still other factors even though they might be silent in influencing price.

We'd still have to consider that people can still dump their coins out of fear. This reduces confidence and lowers the value. I'm still expecting the price the pick up where it was before the plunge before starting to rise again. People have gotten used to all these news from China and many were probably anticipating the drop to buy coins, pushing the price back up again.

You guys are not looking at the big picture here.

Even IF the bitcoins where frozen and nobody could sell, it doesn't mean that the private keys are lost forever and therefore shrinking the bitcoin supply. It would mean that those coins would be property of the chinese government and would probably get stored or audited.

But the good news is: after the initial fear, bitcoin recovers quicker and quicker every time.

And what does it really change?

Are they going to auction them later (like the FBI did) or what? If they confiscate these bitcoins (under whatever pretext) or choose to do something along these lines (I don't know what else they could be up to), the days of Bitcoin in China are in fact numbered. I mean no one alert and of sober mind would ever want to move their coins inside the jurisdiction of the Chinese government. I guess even the Chinese traders themselves would stay away from Chinese exchanges

This is only at the beginning, then the market sees that the news is not so unfavorable and the price recovers very fast. No matter how much the government tries to regulate the exchanges. Not blocking the use in the country, everything is normal, just negotiate in p2p, the spirit of freedom remains ..

It just slowing down the process to significantly decline and we've recovered,
As long as China gov doesn't ban bitcoin but just regulated and issues exchanges policy, then we would be fine.
Bitcoin become an alternative payment for every currencies, so there's no doubt it will still rise again and again.

No, I have a different view. PBOC does not look if bitcoin's price is more than $1000. Nowadays, has more and bigger problems but these are related to chinese upward trend to bitcoin but not only the price. That is, yuan was at very low last Tuesday and the the drop of Yuan was 6.6 percent against the price of dollar last year. This was the worst annual drop since 1994 (http://fsmnews.com/Articles/PBOC-Warns-Bitcoin-for-Possible-Shutdown/article.aspx?Article=1401). The chinese currency has fallen to its lowest level the previous seven years. This drop made the investors to look for a better currency in order to protect their funds. So we saw this raw intervention from the PBOC which decided to forbid customers of exchanges to withdraw their bitcoin and ltc but let them to sell their cryptos and to withdraw yuan hoping that will intercept their citizens to buy bitcoins and ltc.


EDIT:Double post

now we are not going to experience any major downfall. now people are not letting bitcoin to fell down too much and if it fell down to some level then it recover its position very soon. and i think that is a very important thing for the future of bitcoin.

There is bitcoin after China, my friend. I can realize that most bitcoiners use to think that the only important factor to determine the value of bitcoin is China, but I have no doubt that there are lots and lots of equally important factors that are pumping or dumping the price, although it is easier for alleged analyst to reduce all these options in a single one: China.

Yes that is true, someone that hold the most bitcoin will have to recover this thing in the future to make sure bitcoin price is not become too volatile so that in the future bitcoin price will become stable as other currency in fiat. So if I can say better save your coin for now. And i think China will think about this, they want to get everything, in order to do that they want to get hold of bitcoin peice as high as possible