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Title: Going up! Post by: Dervish on April 17, 2013, 10:06:55 AM Title: Re: Going up? Post by: xorglub on April 17, 2013, 10:12:37 AM This could be a decisive reversal. We'll see...
Title: Re: Going up? Post by: phatsphere on April 17, 2013, 10:13:35 AM i posted this in the new hardcore thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg1862366#msg1862366
thank's for drawing the lines! although, the case hasn't been quite resolved yet … we'll see. this could also be the beginning of an upside down cup, like before. Title: Re: Going up? Post by: NamelessOne on April 17, 2013, 10:29:39 AM I've been watching that painful down channel for days, finally broken up! ;D
Title: Re: Going up? Post by: cedivad on April 17, 2013, 10:33:22 AM Title: Re: Going up? Post by: BitPirate on April 17, 2013, 10:39:52 AM Crash = bear trap.
Title: Re: Going up? Post by: NamelessOne on April 17, 2013, 10:41:31 AM The price was being held down under the down channel upper wall very well. In your chart the price isn't actually hitting the upper line at all for most of the last week. I think your upper line needs to be lower, in which case the price just broke through it. Title: Re: Going up? Post by: cedivad on April 17, 2013, 10:43:20 AM The price was being held down under the down channel upper wall very well. In your chart the price isn't actually hitting the upper line at all for most of the last week. I think your upper line needs to be lower, in which case the price just broke through it. You are correct, but it could reverse anytime now. It's not a mind blowing breakout, it's a little breakout of little significance. IMO.Title: Re: Going up? Post by: arepo on April 17, 2013, 10:44:51 AM 30-min PVT says something big is brewing...
-===- http://s7.postimg.org/kbgom2rcb/5hourpvt.png -===- this is the decisive moment... the only question is -- up or down? Title: Re: Going up? Post by: NamelessOne on April 17, 2013, 10:45:17 AM The price was being held down under the down channel upper wall very well. In your chart the price isn't actually hitting the upper line at all for most of the last week. I think your upper line needs to be lower, in which case the price just broke through it. You are correct, but it could reverse anytime now. It's not a mind blowing breakout, it's a little breakout of little significance. IMO.Title: Re: Going up? Post by: arepo on April 17, 2013, 10:49:58 AM to all the newbies drawing trendlines and triangles -- just some tips:
1. you need at least two points of contact. a line is defined by two points so you can draw any line you want about one (this is not rigorous enough, obviously). further, if your line only has two points of contact, it is not as robust as a model that has more. 2. sometimes wicks (shadows) contain outliers. try to imagine the distribution of the data and draw lines accordingly -- it's TA, not connect-the-dots. beware of apophenia. just because you see a pattern doesn't mean it's a proper, predictive, or particularly robust model. Title: Re: Going up? Post by: smoothie on April 17, 2013, 11:07:43 AM to all the newbies drawing trendlines and triangles -- just some tips: 1. you need at least two points of contact. a line is defined by two points so you can draw any line you want about one (this is no rigorous enough, obviously). further, if your line only has two points of contact, it is not as robust of a model that has more. 2. sometimes wicks (shadows) contain outliers. try to imagine the distribution of the data and draw lines accordingly -- it's TA, not connect-the-dots. beware of apophenia. just because you see a pattern doesn't mean it's a proper, predictive, or particularly robust model. +1 LOL so many noobs here :D :D :D Title: Re: Going up? Post by: phatsphere on April 17, 2013, 11:44:40 AM 1. you need at least two points of contact. … … and if you know a bit about models and fitting: i see this as an approximation problem. e.g. take all the max-points for a given sliding and overlapping interval (i.e. "top points") and approximate them via a linear function. (it's also linear if you take the logarithm). then, the residual could be calculated using the L-1 or L-2 norm. L-1 referrs to point 1 of arepo, L-2 is his/her second point. 2. sometimes wicks (shadows) contain outliers. try to imagine the distribution of the data and draw lines accordingly … Advanced data fitters might also consider to assign weights to the points, e.g. the last points have an exponentially higher weight than the first ones. e.g. in python/numpy: np.exp(np.linspace(-1, 0, 10)) if you have 10 points. in python's "statsmodesl" it's OLS and WLS. … and if you have more points to fit and want to take outliers into account, look into RLS: http://statsmodels.sourceforge.net/devel/examples/generated/example_rlm.html Title: Re: Going up! Post by: Dervish on April 17, 2013, 01:24:11 PM What am I say? 90!
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