Bitcoin Forum

96.89 at the moment of this writing.  ???

Whoever ass-manipulator is behind this, please keep going on with your bull trap setup. I can't care less. Most of my BTCs are in cold storage by now and definitely not for sale any time soon. Feel free to crash the market as many times as you wish. All you can have is a bit of my play money. Yes I bought BTC lower this morning and sold higher right now. 3 grand Euros in 7 hours. Feels good. They'll pay for a hell of a birthday party. Thanks for those.

why so angry?

Looking at block chains it isn't a "manipulator" or an intentional bull trap.  It is just a bunch of bulls trying to get back on the bandwagon.  I do agree it is yet another bull trap though even if only misguided.  We have had like ten of them since $55 and every single time people start posting the crash is over.  This maybe more hope on the OKCupid announcement yesterday and other news today I saw on Huffington Post.  

because swings like these destroy the confidence in bitcoin as a mean of exchange for goods.
Of course I want to get rich, like anyone else. But for the sake of the bitcoin idea itself I'd be way happier with some stability.

We were in a downward channel for like a week, no real bulltraps from what I see. Now we are in an upward channel and broke straight through the previous downward channel after what many are thinking was a double bottom in the 50s.

I look at the past 5 days and I see a bulltrap everyday.  Based on the selloff that just happened this one might be about to break.  We are at 92.9 right now for reference.

https://i.imgur.com/sthqtAh.png

This stuff is definiely not good for Bitcoin. It won't be widely accepted as long as it's dancing like this, it'll just be a speculation asset.

For less volatility we need a higher market cap.

Thus, we need higher prices. Weeeeee!

I agree however the $266-$105 is much more damaging.  However more adoption will bring more stability.  This is a chicken and egg problem.  Silk road is able to keep trades flowing and last night I researched and learned how.  Obviously as the bubble goes up they make huge profits.  However, they hedge orders for sellers and pay them out of their own pockets on the falls.  The system seems to have worked great during the bubble.  This isn't an issue for more buyers as they get coin and make the purchase and the sell price can be set to move up and down with the USD.

Some panic buying going on.

Yeeeee haaaa

Hop on the train before it's too late.

Guys, remember that if bitcoins become widely adopted (greater than 1% of the population), bitcoins will necessarily have to cost more than $1,000 (probably more like $10,000). It has to get to that price SOMEHOW, and I don't see any possible way it could get there without a lot of volatility.

Yes, I would also like bitcoin to have a relatively stable price, but I'm not expecting or hoping for that until it's a trillion dollar market (like gold, which can still be fairly volatile).

True, patience is what everyone needs.  Adoption comes, value goes up and stability comes.  Don't expect stability to come before adoption.  It wont happen.

I see four days of consecutive "lower lows".  Today I see one higher high which I chalk up to the OKCupid announcement.  We are now at $91 and it looks like the latest "Bullcrap" as you so eloquently named it is breaking.

Not gonna happen for a long time, if ever. Unless you feel like dropping some money on stabilizing the rate. Where would you like it to be?

Nice times to rake some profit daytrading. Never did that actively, but its very profitable indeed :D

I'm still quite bearish, but the truth is that the last 2 days we had a HUGE selloff. Hundreds of thousands of coins per day. It may be true that panic sell is now over, and now the fresh fiat entered in Gox is pumping up the price again.

I don't think that in 2011 Gox had this massive increase in verifications, this may no te be over. I guess more big sell offs could happen at around $130, $160 and $200ish

What I can guarantee is that we are approaching a period of extreme volatility, even by BTC standards.

That was what happens in downward channels... those aren't bulltraps. That is just movement in a downward market. And now the market appears to have reverse and is doing it in the other direction... up.

Been daytrading for over 15 years and I have to say I have yet to see anyone get rich at it.  Lot's of guys who made a quick million and then lost it all though.  You can't predict a panic sell off and can easily lose weeks of profit in one day.  Anyone who replies claiming to be getting rich on Bitcoin daytrading please show us your statemtents and continue to show them from now on.  I doubt you will see this.

Bulltrap - A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline.


How are those not bull traps exactly based on the investopedia definition?  We are at $89 and I posted the chart at $93, sorry that is not up.

Yeah, I agree with you... It's just that my strategy was always "buy and hold + spend some to support BTC economy", and this last two days I have being buying after big sell offs and selling after aprox. 10% increase in price with perfect results so far... And is profitable because that is happening almost every couple of hours :D

I did that just because I was jealous everybody writing "I doubled up on the crash", etc... But I know this is not the strategy for me, I'm just trying to increase a bit my stash of fresh fiat that arrived to Gox precisely the day of the dropoff to $105 from $266, while waiting for one big crash to buy BTC with it and forget about it.

I was hoping that $32 was the best moment to use that fiat, now I think I should have bought at around $55. What would you think is a good entry point, as a daytrader?

Yeah, I agree with you... It's just that my strategy was always "buy and hold + spend some to support BTC economy", and this last two days I have being buying after big sell offs and selling after aprox. 10% increase in price with perfect results so far... And is profitable because that is happening almost every couple of hours :D

I did that just because I was jealous everybody writing "I doubled up on the crash", etc... But I know this is not the strategy for me, I'm just trying to increase a bit my stash of fresh fiat that arrived to Gox precisely the day of the dropoff to $105 from $266, while waiting for one big crash to buy BTC with it and forget about it.

I was hoping that $32 was the best moment to use that fiat, now I think I should have bought at around $55. What would you think is a good entry point, as a daytrader?

Its up from yesterday and everyone will agree with that. $93 to $89 is an laughably short time period, minutes. It could easily be beyond $93 in a couple minutes but that wouldn't make me right either.  A real bulltrap would be if we started drastically falling now and eventually lower than $50 to fully confirm. I would call that a bulltrap because it would be one. All of those other points you put black dots on were always hitting the upper line of their downward channel that had been falling downward for days, lower lows, lower highs, clearly going down. Every time it hit that line the price would grind along it, never breaking. Always down. The reverse is happening now and we will see what plays out.

Well, some things are true:

- we have already seen MASSIVE sell offs in the last few days. All time high, +500K coins in one day!!
- buying BTC for the first time is slow. Massive queue at Gox, 2/3 days waiting for the money to appear there. So, there's still a lot of fiat in the system
- making fiat enter Gox is much easier than leaving Gox.

Every time the price goes up the bulls run to the forum saying omfg the price is going back up buy buy buy.  Sounds like a bunch of bulls getting trapped.  


The price has been declining and is down form $260-$89 in only 6 short days.  I love how you say that minutes is a laughably short time period immediately after talking about the price being up for one day.  My point was that the price has only been going up for 2 days compared to down for a week.  

The $93 to $89 was simply me showing that I spotted another bull trap breaking when I put the black dot at $93.  By the way we are now at $87.  You are intentionally confusing two distinct points to try to prove your argument.

Thank you.

Really in the past six days you've bought at .01, .10, and 1.00?  Can I have the name of your exchange please?  I've been buying since $14 and bought at $71.  My only two sells ever were 20% at $103 and 80% at $230.  You guys need to stop seeing everything in bull/bear and start reading.  Your religion over Bitcoin is clouding your ability to comprehend and read.

Just because I point out bulltraps as defined by traders worldwide doesn't mean I'm a bear or on the other side from you.

At what point would you buy in again?

I said last week after the bubble burst a minimum of two weeks.  I did buy some at $71 last week because I hate not having coin and I do use them often.  I don't have a price point to buy in because the price is controlled by speculation and not value.  I'm still waiting to see if volatility will continue or if the price will stablize so another week may not be enough time.  I'm more likely to buy based on news about the adoption of bitcoin than a price point.  OKCupid has not be very focused on profit and does not give me reason to buy in today.  I'm still doing a lot of research on that and check the news for annoucments about Bitcoin every couple hours that I'm awake.  I'll post to the forums once I make a decision to do anything.  I always document what I do here as I do it.  So far my return on Bitcoin is 1600% in 2 years and I'm happy with it.

Well, I can bet we will have a lot of volatility mid term. I can feel the pain of the ones that have hundreds of thousands of $ blocked in the fractional reserve system of MtGox. It's easier to buy back the BTC to take them out from Gox, that sucks.

Agreed I had MtGox issues and got my money out.  I went to using BTC-E but, obviously it isn't ideal.  MtGox has really taken some steam out of me as I don't 100% trust them and it makes me sad they shutdown and can't handle traffic.  I work for a huge hosting company with data center space on wall street.  A serious exchange could handle the DDOS and the "success".

The pointy bits also switched from the bottom to the top of the line. I'm not sure what's going to happen but I don't think I'm going to be able to buy any of my bitcoins back at the price I sold them. So I bought some Iron Maiden tickets instead :D

the 3rd one edned 18 dollars higher..... how is that a bull trap. it has to end lower that the original. no bull trap there.

I agree that this could turn out to be a bulltrap. I'm hopeful it isn't and it doesn't look like it so far to me. But a day is 1440 minutes, not the 10 or so you were using. I'm not a more of a bull bear than anything. I just try to be reasonable. It doesn't matter if a bunch of forum junkies pile on being happy about the slightest increase in price if they are unaware that a downward channel is forcing us down. So many newbs joined on here in the last two weeks it is bloody painful to read these forums sometimes.

In your reply you said it was 87, like somehow that supported your argument to use a short timeframe again. Its at 94 now so I must be right by this methodology. But Im not yet because the price fluctuates like that all the time. By that methodology every time the price goes up it would be a bulltrap, and every time it goes down it would be a beartrap. This could still be a bulltrap but I'll still say those other dots were just market zigzag in a down channel without any real bottoming action.

One thing I've noticed is that about 80-90% of the people in these fora are using the terms "bull trap" and "bear trap" incorrectly (e.g., 6 out of the last 8 times I've noticed the term).  They are using them to mean exactly the opposite of the investopedia definition.  I'm by no means an expert invester, but even I know what these terms mean.

As to whether or not these are actual bull traps or just normal volatility for a small cap asset that has just crashed due to market manipulation and is returning to its true value is hard to say at this point.  This (long-term) bull hasn't been trapped yet over the past 4 days -- quite to the contrary.

This whole crash was a bear trap, just watch  ;)

sold some coin at mid-90s that I bought at $60 during the crash. I don't think we're breaching $100. Feels like it's going to drop down to $70s later.

From this point of view it just looks like a minor speedbump:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl)

If last week's action was a bear trap, four digits will be a strong possibility. If the mentioned action wasn't a bear trap but some large insider selling, in this scenario we'll have a healthier market in the long run, still we'll see four digits but it'll take more time to reach that levels. What do you think?

Been saying this since last week "largest Shakedown in bitcoin History"

Wish more folks would switch from MTGOX though... you'd think we'd have learned that by now...

Right. What's a better exchange?

Let's see how soon we break $100 and then $130. I believe this crash was needed and very healthy, parabolic growth is unsustainable. We need weak hands selling at their b/e point.

Most on this forum acts as if it's black and white (bulls vs bears). I was extremely bullish at $13.50 due to imminent media coverage. I was extremely bearish over $145 (even though I realized and posted that if we broke $145 we were headed much higher after which we would burst violently). I am somewhat medium-term (2-3 year) bullish on the concept but believe the case for single digits is more likely than the case for $1000. Single digits is probably unlikely in the short-term, but IMO $150 is also very unlikely.

Proudhon has been a perma-bear but became bullish @ $50 because he clearly internalized something that changed his mind. It doesn't matter if he's right, at least he's thinking rationally. It makes no sense to be firmly in either camp unless one is a fully indoctrinated long-term holder who doesn't pay attention to the day-to-day minutae (and probably would not even be on this thread). The religious fervor and polarity on this site are interesting. I can't tell if it's religion or just the run-of-the-mill hyper-speculation that one finds on penny stock forums.

The bulls here seem to all be perma-bulls. Permabulls & permabears will always be right at some point. I'm more interested in reality based assumptions and predictions.

Like I said yesterday, this are looking pretty hopeful, actually.  Again, the price is going to wiggle and wobble (pretty significantly compared to most other markets) on its way back up, but I do think the bottom was put in place.

Welcome back to the bull side proudhon, we missed you here. I hope your cold storage is safe and sound :)

This is insane indeed. Proudhon not spreading doom and gloom? Oh my, I need to meditate on this.

I won't disagree with you. Things will get interesting. I was hoping for more doom and gloom first.

+1 That is my bet too.

+ (4+ digits)

i miss the old proud who was predicting single digits a few days ago.

Agreed.


The short term thinking in these threads is remarkable to me. As stated above, Bitcoin will not be a truly viable exchange medium or "universal" store of value until the price of bitcoin is in the order of magnitude of $10K/coin. Before that it is almost useless on a large scale (except for a few people to move small amounts of money around).

Arguments about "what is bad for bitcoin" are truly irrelevant to the ultimate adoption or failure of the coin. There will bubbles (many I believe) over the next few years and there will be crashes. That is the nature of the beast. Complaining about "manipulators" and "speculators" is just plain silly and naive. That is always the nature new ideas and technologies.

I have worked with dozens of vc funded start-ups. Many die. Some make it long enough to get 2nd and third round funding. Those that do are often bought by larger firms or explode out on their own. I have never seen one that did not have wild swings in "valuation" along the way - however you choose to measure that. Will bitcoin survive? I don't know. If it solves an existing problem (or many) and does it better than the competition, it will thrive. If not it will die.

My bet is it will live. Bitcoin is strong and will get stronger as it is tested. Just my opinion.

But all this hand wringing and anger about what "they" are doing to you and hurting bitcoin by trading and speculating is just nonsense and a misreading of what is required - and inevitable- at this time in the bitcoin adoption phase. We are involved in a high-risk venture capital long-term investment (some more than others ;D And something that no one has ever seen before. It is going to be messy for long time.

Why do people keep posting this stupid chart. What if bitcoin is not a commodity, but a technology... then isn't this better?

http://www.tsanalysis.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gartner-hype-cycle.png

And for some reference:

https://www.x.com/sites/default/files/6695_gartner-hype-cycle-2011.gif

Well the current exchange i was using just went belly up i think .. or something is going on with bitfloor.
They just asked the whole lot to pull funds out ..btc or USD and all trading has stopped!



So ... where is a halfway decent exchange??? I was thinking bitstamp but .. i need to pull out USD easy. Bitfloor did just that!

Direct deposit was a sinch..just gave it my routing and bank name . .. Think it was 2 1/2 days funds were in my account!


Im approaching all exchanges with a 50 ft poll from now on.. I really liked bitfloor hope they arent gone for good. :(

If you are trading relatively small potatoes (a couple hundred BTC and under), CampBX seems nice. Liquidity is not the best (though there is a dark pool) but ive never had a problem with lag or missed orders, etc.

They tend to trade about $1-5 cheaper than Gox.

Doing well enough thank you kindly.

Vladimir is correct. so is ManBearPig. day trading when it was just going up is fine. picking tops and bottoms unless you have enough capital to move things will probably wind up being worse than just being long

Great, more people who don't understand markets or currencies. Bitcoin will not be stable until it is at a MUCH higher valuation. You come across like an angry emo kid in the OP, so if the price action bothers you, just leave bitcoin for another year or so.
When mBTC is $1 then we can talk about stability. You can daydream all you want about a slow, stable increase of 1%/month for the next 10 years but the fact is, people want Bitcoin and they want it now, stability just can't happen at $0.01/mBTC, bitcoin is behaving like a penny stock but since its value is displayed as a mature stock, it seems to be far more volatile than it should be.

Oh I see you like big numbers too.
It's fascinating to see the this cargo cult evolving.

Bitcoin will be only be stable with 10 billion users or with zero users.

shit there's only 7 billion people, oh well i get bitcoin will never be stable.  ;)
 

Users include businesses and other organizations, not just individuals.

It's really pretty simple.

When we get to the top of the adoption curve, or if Bitcoin fails entirely, the value will be stable.

http://smart-future.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Blog_S_Curves2_251009-1024x761.jpg

Until then, it's going to be bumpy.

It seemed like this crazy bullride started with some hardcore manipulation with the 1 million+ holding on 70, then again around 90.

What the heck is driving this now?  Just panic buying? 

It's really pretty simple.

When we get to the top of the adoption curve, or if Bitcoin fails entirely, the value will be stable.

http://smart-future.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Blog_S_Curves2_251009-1024x761.jpg

Until then, it's going to be bumpy.
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Wow, I never knew that many American households had airplanes. 100% ? :o

I really can't understand it. In less than 72 hours we are from 55 USD per BTC on the 120 USD per BTC. Like 218%, really??

In 18 hours we gained 30 USD - from 90 USD to 120 USD so we are basically at 133%.

It's misleading because it's per-capita. Some of us like to keep an extra for just the weekends and special occasions.

*ahem*

So, not only are you an official Occupy Wall St. Bear, you also don't understand math at all? $5 bitcoins times 21 million = $105 million dollars. Enough to support any reasonable amount of economic activity via a global currency, and also provide stability? Lol. Thanks for reminding me yet again why your "Ignore" button is highlighted orange.  :D :D :D

I can't agree more. It just lost 9 USD (10 %) in about 3 minutes?

And it gained it back :)