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Title: LPPL predicts Bitcoin at $20 in 4 weeks Post by: drawingthesun on April 17, 2013, 02:47:45 PM Any of you ever heard of LPPL before?
If this works then the bottom will be $20. http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/ (http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/) Title: Re: LPPL predicts Bitcoin at $20 in 4 weeks Post by: bb113 on April 17, 2013, 02:52:42 PM The model was off by >$100 in predicting the top, I'm not sure why we should expect the bottom to be much more accurate.
Title: Re: LPPL predicts Bitcoin at $20 in 4 weeks Post by: massivebitman on April 17, 2013, 02:55:11 PM tl;dr
Models.. Whatever, it's just like that overrated chart people keep posting. Complete baloney.. BTC can't be put into some generic bubble basket. In fact I compared that stupid red chart the everyone posts, to the .com crash, and it's not even close. Not that I'm saying bitcoin is .com, but it's got a lot of potential now. Title: Re: LPPL predicts Bitcoin at $20 in 4 weeks Post by: drawingthesun on April 17, 2013, 02:55:34 PM The model was off by >$100 in predicting the top, I'm not sure why we should expect the bottom to be much more accurate. I thought the bubble was popped by market manipulation and the attack? Isn't it likely the natural top was a little higher? I have no idea, its weird that these models are so accurate, shouldn't these people be billionaires or something? Title: Re: LPPL predicts Bitcoin at $20 in 4 weeks Post by: bb113 on April 17, 2013, 03:03:45 PM The model was off by >$100 in predicting the top, I'm not sure why we should expect the bottom to be much more accurate. I thought the bubble was pooped by market manipulation and the attack? Isn't it likely the natural top was a little higher? I have no idea, its weird that these models are so accurate, shouldn't these people be billionaires or something? Any deviation at the bottom will also be explained due to market manipulation and attack or some other reason not captured in a 6 parameter model. The analysis posted is kind of half assed as well, if he was serious about it he would post estimates for each parameter in the model. It is interesting and may be worth incorporating into a larger model. Title: Re: LPPL predicts Bitcoin at $20 in 4 weeks Post by: chiropteran on April 17, 2013, 03:20:56 PM The model is already broke, it didn't show the dip down to $51 followed by a recovery to $98.
Title: Re: LPPL predicts Bitcoin at $20 in 4 weeks Post by: furezasan on April 17, 2013, 04:15:17 PM I think a 4 week forecast is too large of a margin, price be changing on a daily!
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