Bitcoin Forum

Hedge funds in the US and Japan have devised a daring wager on the future price of bitcoin as the Tokyo courts continue to wade through the aftermath of the Mt Gox exchange collapse and one of the biggest digital heists in history.

According to people with direct knowledge of the situation, at least four hedge funds have begun buying or offering to buy claims from the many thousands of former trading account holders who lost bitcoins and cash when Mt Gox — then the world’s biggest bitcoin exchange — declared bankruptcy in February 2014.

None of the 24,000 or so claimants is expected to get back more than a quarter of the lost bitcoins and cash in their accounts. But the payout will eventually come entirely in the form of bitcoins, so the potential advantage is huge.

Nobody knows how long it will take for claims to be settled but there is the potential for it to be at least another year while five other Mt Gox-related legal disputes are resolved.

Hedge funds are offering claimholders a shortcut that lets them sell their claim now and receive 15 per cent of the yen value of each claim in cash. The hedge funds, meanwhile, are gambling on a bitcoin windfall at some point in the future.

When the claims were lodged in 2014, the Mt Gox trustees calculated their value using an exchange rate of just under $450 per bitcoin. After gains throughout 2016 the market price of one bitcoin in January surpassed $1,000 for the first time since the Mt Gox collapse, and on Monday was trading just above $1,012.

I knew hedge funds were primed to take risks, but this seems stunningly out there to me. I presume it's peanuts to them but still seems like a bonkers roll of the dice.

Are they absolutely certain about being paid out in BTC? If I was a Gox victim the last thing I'd do is allow myself to be preyed upon again.

Overall, the amount of bitcoin the MtGox estate holds is approximately 202,185 XBT

Pfft...this isn't surprising that someone is trying to monetize the payouts.  That's what hedge funds do, they gamble.  Good luck to the claimants, I say.  It would be good if they got anything back.  Fuck Gox.

I'm surprised that they are able to recover anything, but this could be a positive for Bitcoin. It could be a sign to potential investors that even in scams or hacks, some coins can be recovered.

So they have over 203,900,000 million dollar worth of BTC right now, why the heck they don't want to give it all to people?

$203,900,000 worth of bitcoin's? If they hand out even 1/10 of that it'll crash the price?

Pfft...this isn't surprising that someone is trying to monetize the payouts.  That's what hedge funds do, they gamble.  Good luck to the claimants, I say.  It would be good if they got anything back.  Fuck Gox.

$203,900,000 worth of bitcoin's? If they hand out even 1/10 of that it'll crash the price?

People usually focus on the amount of coins lost, not the amount of coins recovered. In this case, if the hedge funds are able to buy out the claims at a deep discount, Mt Gox users will get screwed twice over.

$203,900,000 worth of bitcoin's? If they hand out even 1/10 of that it'll crash the price?

I'm surprised that they are able to recover anything, but this could be a positive for Bitcoin. It could be a sign to potential investors that even in scams or hacks, some coins can be recovered.

If this is recovered, people will massive dump bitcoin, when mtgox dead, the price was 400 usd, they have chance to dump at 1000 usd, and they will dump it.

Guess that entirely your opinion but dumping of Bitcoin is no longer all said and done, because as more and more people are embracing Bitcoin, its decentralized nature really comes to the fore. I tell you what will happen, some people would simply sell their coins and wait to buy again at lower prices and that is called profit taking and not dumping. Good coaches don't replace a winning team!

If this is recovered, people will massive dump bitcoin, when mtgox dead, the price was 400 usd, they have chance to dump at 1000 usd, and they will dump it.

I agree that there might not be dumping. The people who will be reimbursed are the early adopters. Most people here would not even have known about bitcoin when Mt Gox collapsed. So there is a good chance that those people might hold on to their bitcoins.

Out of my 20k$ gox claim the hedgefund offers 3000$ in cash immediately. Would go for it? Or waiting another 2 or more years for finally not getting anything at all?

Fortunately I haven't lost any BTC during MtGox crash. But if I had I would be happy to receive any form of compensation.
So they have over 203,900,000 million dollar worth of BTC right now, why the heck they don't want to give it all to people?
I am not that shocked that hedge funds are trying to monetize it even further that is their way of doing things.

Out of my 20k$ gox claim the hedgefund offers 3000$ in cash immediately. Would go for it? Or waiting another 2 or more years for finally not getting anything at all?

I guess it depends on how badly you need the money. I think that if you wait the 2 years you will definitely get SOMETHING. The question is, what will the price be. If you are convinced that the price is going to be higher, it makes sense to wait it out. But if you think it might crash, then take the money and run. It is a gamble and only you know whether you want to risk it.

I would be interested in what they were offering.
Its a gamble with an upside since you may only get back a portion of what is promised but you have the upside of grabbing some cheap bitcoin,
which is a commodity that may increase in value over time.