Bitcoin Forum

The trading in BTC is characteristically volatile, too much so, but for the past three days there are huge blocks of BTC swirling around the globe and the market is flat, not range bound but outright absolutely flat.  Who thinks this is normal? This to me is impossible (considering standard volitility) without large manipulation. We want a more stable market but this is flat lining, "the patient is now dead" price action is also dysfunctional for BTC. Too many questions, too much weirdness, not a natural market.

Volume at mtgox.com is relatively low compared to the days with large changes (either up or down). It's more likely that bulls and bears alike are simply taking a wait-and-see attitude right now.

I though so to, but there is always some kind of drift in a range, In my years (looking at 10's thousands of charts) Ive never seen a flat lining effect like this after such a huge range of trade.

 

It is possible that the stolen money (if actually stolen) is being laundered through multiple mt gox accounts. The constant sells and buys all going back and forth to essentially the same person may be keeping the price flat. I would assume he/she would be willing to take trade losses to help him get clean USD/bitcoins.

I don't like it myself, at all.

This market is simply too fucked up.

I'm trying to get rid of all my mining gear asap, myself.

This shit isn't worth the questioning and anticipation anymore.

I found myself a grown man worth $160/hr+ in development labor, fawning over asinine charts of an idiots market and masturdebating the silly shit with kids on a forum...

Man I need a better hobby lol.

Synaptic, my offer still stands valid for your 5830

You are the same person who also claimed:

It was artificial when there was a rally, then when the correction came it was also artificial and most recently you claimed to be hacked.

Its no surprise you also claim that the current consolidation is also "artificial".  :D

The only artificial thing i see here are posts from people like you.

As a speculator myself i prefer the Rally/Crashes i don't like this consolidation but i can assure you consolidation is also part of the natural market game.

The way I see it, someone is sat on a large pile of coins and cash and is pushing in one direction or another. They are either looking to keep value up by buying all the cheap coins or they are trying to keep it down by pushing just the right number of coins onto the market to keep it in the 19.xx range.

I reckon the person got all of these coins as part of the multi million turnover over the weekend when the volume was massive and the charts were going mad. Someone is messing with us.

What I want to know is if they are using more coins or cash and what will happen when they run out of one or the other.

It's simply the low volume. Look at the chart, whenever there was low volume, there was flatlining.
The reality is that there are almost no traders, which would move the market based on incoming new information. Keep in mind that transaction costs are pretty high on MtGox. All the big up moves are caused by new people getting into Bitcoin, and all big down moves are caused by early miners cashing out.

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=690&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=60&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

Not nearly paranoid enough, don't you know where you are?  ;)

Your post does actually sound very reasonable. I can also see the psychological barrier of $20 being a pretty natural one.

Obvious manipulation is obvious. We need more exchanges. Why don't people use bitcoin-central.net? It is the only exchange for which we have the source, so that we can see that it isn't a pile of shit, like bitcoin7 or whatever it is called.

More liquidity!

The sane thing could be said about the silver market for the past month or so...

I'm also convinced there is some kind of manipulation going on. Can't make any sense of it, so i'm quitting while i'm ahead.

Its really sad when uninformed people abuse the word manipulation because they don't understand some basic fundamentals about a market (any market).

I suspect it's just someone trying to sell a lot of coins for around $20.  The market naturally wants to keep going up as it has been for the past few months, but it can't pass $20 with this entity trying to unload some huge number of coins.  Eventually the coins will all be sold and the price will continue to rise.

https://bitcoinconsultancy.com/wiki/index.php/Intersango

Which runs Britcoin.

NO  ::)

This kind of stable market has happened many times before in short time frames . Now if it is this stable still in July I would start to wonder what's up.

Maybe the world is not ready for a free market. They shout manipulation and speculation when prices rise quickly. They shout manipulation and nefariousness when prices fall quickly. And when prices stay flat? Manipulation, it must be!

I'll propose an alternative theory = Bitcoin is brand new, and will be extremely volatile and unpredictable for a long time. Part of true volatility is the 2nd order - even the volatility itself will be volatile! Stop obsessing with charts.

The monetary concept of Bitcoin is solid. So, too, is the technology. Given this, if you believe in Bitcoin go out and build businesses around it. Buy with it, sell with it, and trade with it. Stop worrying if the short-term dollar/btc exchange rate is not precisely where you think it should be. Let free markets be free, and enjoy the freedom, tumultuous (or flat) as it is.

It's not going up because it still is overpriced after the huge rise. Probably it will go down again soon, don't worry.

I don't feel sorry for all people who saw Bruce Wagners "foot of a hockey stick" chart (http://bitcoinme.com/) and believed they will get immensly rich in two weeks.
You are suckers.

Please, teach us what these "basic fundamentals" are as relates to the BTC market...

...please, do.

^^ This

I'm more concerned about the 9.3M BTC sent in the last 24 hours. That's 140% of the entire BTC economy, sent in less than 24 hours and not through exchanges.

See:
http://www.bitcoinwatch.com - Bitcoins sent last 24 hours

http://blockexplorer.com/ - Largest transactions (last 300 blocks) - Look at all these largest transactions - it's the exact same money being moved from address to address over and over again. Very weird.

Just a guess, but probably people freaking out about their own personal security measures after the heist.  Whether they're sending to wallet services, or to wallet files on thumbdrives, doesn't matter.  It's probably nothing more than people sending money to themselves in various ways.

Sending from address A to address B makes sense under your umbrella.

Sending from address A to address B and back to address A, paying 50 something BTC on a ~9k transaction as an actual example, doesn't. At all.

At all.

Could be. If I had 50,000 BTC, a good way to make it hard for someone to steal would be to put it into 1000 different wallets and then encrypt them all.

Someone is always jobbing a market, that's what markets do.  Get jobbed.  Either by the biggest fish in the sea or by the government or regulatory body.

If you are looking for a "free market" keep looking.  Let me know if you find one by the way, I'd love to see a mythological creature.

Batten down the hatches, there's a storm brewing for the weekend.

Ya, with the price falling from the 19-20 range going into the weekend, I think dark clouds are on the horizon.

oh my god its falling. that is the end of bitcoin. it was a nice ride. i dont have a parachute. it was nice while it lasted.

all from irc.all the previous weekend. all wrong.

I'm glad that the market is doing exactly like I'm predicting.

Next prediction: downward drift to $15 range @ about a 75% certainty.  May trigger a panic sell off with the bad press.

Somebody is selling a lot in dark pool just below $20 stopping price from going up. It does not swing very much down also because there's another big dark at $18.

Yes, compared to 30% value swings that looks  But AFAIR remember week ago everybody was begging for stabilization.

hehe might be good prediction, 16.5 now. Don't think there will be the same panic as last time though, since it recovered at least partly. Should be lot's of newcomers wanting to get in due to the massive press-coverage (even though about 50% is somewhat negative).

Shit it got back to 17.35 while I was writing this haha. You guys who got bored of the stability, here you have your volatility ;)

Perhaps this is just someone with an account where most of the balance was received in a single transaction.  It starts out receiving 50,000 BTC in one transaction in block 93863, and sends 50 BTC at a time to other addresses.  When there is a single input transaction that's being drawn from that is larger than the output, the balance of the input transaction appears to be sent to a newly generated address.

The fact that the balance of the big transaction also looks like it's being moved around is technical smoke and mirrors.  Or maybe it really is being moved?

Whether the large remainder is being moved to a different wallet or not is semantics I think. The interesting thing to me is that it's being sent out in relatively consistent amounts. I have my own suppositions as to why, but was interested in what other people think about it.

And then the difficulty rating goes down? Yayyyyy!

Counterfeiting!!!!

SELL!!!!!!!111!!!!1 SELL!1!!!!! SELL!!!111!1!!!

This. The market will plummet from the manipulation and possible counterfeiting. It's likely that someone cracked SHA-2, possibly with a quantum computer. Prices will plunge to $5/BTC by noon Saturday (EST). Sell. Everything.

+1

Really, it's kind of provocative that thees trolls think we're so easy manipulated. Were they trolls from the beginning or somebody hacked their accounts? As we know, bitcoins are almost impossible to counterfeit, and quantum computer will not be commercial for at least a decade. Weak man...

Someone has no sense of humor whatsoever.

Hehe well sometimes not easy to tell who's serious, you hear some pretty crazy stuff in this forum...

+1, agreed!

Since we can't tell whether the BTC were transferred between addresses belonging to different wallets, the metric of BTC transferred per day is almost useless, certainly less useful than a transaction count metric.

(waving hand) O O O I know this!!!! mememememe

("yes, coinonymous?")

Supply and demand?

imperi was making a joke, dude.

well yea kind of acted out of reflex after last weeks troll-invasion ...

According to my records someone opened $1.9 million in buy orders for about 2 minutes at Thu, 16 Jun 2011 01:31:02 GMT

https://i.imgur.com/latk0.png

moments earlier stats looked like

https://i.imgur.com/GjBVw.png

Beware of men carrying hockey stick graphs.

Isn't that the same chart that the IPCC used as undeniable proof that global warming (anthropogenic)was caused by man  ;D

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ed/Hockey_stick_chart_ipcc_large.jpg

OMG global warming is a bubble. SELL

Psst! The next solar cycle is said to be minimal, it's time to buy!
http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/big-drop-solar-activity-could-mean-much-coole

Can whoever is jobbing the market please drop the rate to below $4 so I can buy in, kthx.

(insert joke about enron here)

Well, I'm out for now. Someone else can play with my coins until the dust settles. Maybe I'll get back into it when it's more stable and less of a hassle to deal with. God speed to the lucky buyer.

https://i.imgur.com/uBkiS.jpg
 ::)

lol :D

That's the difference among early adopters; some are keepers, some are regretters.

Second that...still kicking myself for not having any money in my account last weekend for what should have been a big buy in at $10 just to make 2.5x the money back by selling @$25 12hrs later...am I wrong for thinking that volatility is good for currency trading...some would dream of that kind of movement in the markets so they could leverage a few million dollars.

OH yeah, like DUH...

http://www.math.princeton.edu/jfnj/texts_and_graphics/Mezzanine.Directory/Self.Aids.2008.temp/copied.from.small.black.2GB.mem.unit/IyAIMoney.landscape.2008.808.rh.pdf

It's sad when people can't read. Literacy has so far been the most advantageous effect of bitcoin.

tl;dr.

Word. Brute force wins again, the subject of the paper.

Iirc, this means td;ow - too dumb, only watched. Learn something useful on the shitter.

No, doesn't mean too dumb only watched, it means too long didn't read.

I have lavatory-literature already. Currently reading Carrol Quiggley's brilliant work Tragedy & Hope, great book. Text here. (http://www.tranquility.net/~rwinkel/911/TragedyAndHope.pdf)

As I linked the book, what did you think of it, good? Agree with his observations?

Well if we go through a cold spell my mining rigs will keep me warm  ;D

I think I'll start  tl;rh (too long, read half)

Word. Took me a few times around to get a full feel for Nash.

Still downloading. Takes me a bit with my limited bandwidth. But it's in my queue. And currently at 60%.

Definitely will give you hemorrhoids if you go through it all. We're both aware of why the market is cold. I try to keep a 50 page min on my think tank. Your tl;dr has cred cuz you print. Or I can sell you an anal creame to assist in your estudious endevours. I make a bangin; lidocane ethanol java bindet attachment for the PhDs.

leave. only tru believers stay for now.