Bitcoin Forum

Hi!

This scientist says they can foresee bubbles beforehand. And that they do it since a few years.
And that they predict bubbles openly since years.
http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_eFjLZqXt8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_eFjLZqXt8)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxN0Hx6rJrE

They predicted the 2013 Bitcoin bubble
http://www.er.ethz.ch/ (http://www.er.ethz.ch/)


What do you think?

I don't know exactly how to use it but read the monthly report, perhaps that is enough.

I am a bit confused but what is meant by that bubble word? Is it a representation of a price going down or up?

up.

and the word 'bubble' is applied because it's something that swells hugely only to pop soon after which is what it did after 2013 and we suffered the consequences.

the current price action has been a rally, but not a bubble imo. bubbles are fed by irrational exuberance piling on top of more irrational exuberance and they always end with a huge fall when the confidence fails.

Theres def potential for a bubble but I don't see it yet

That's interesting.. just by the way: that is not what this thread is about.

This thread is about:
"This Science Institute openly foresees Bubbles"

It forsees Bubbles.
It looks at currencies, commodities, more and more single stocks.

And it has markers and gives warning signal 'Attention, Market/Stock/Currency xyz is in bubble right now and it will pop!'
It will give this warning before the bubble actually pops.
So if the warning happens, this says this or that is currently a bubble and the price will go drastically down in the future.
(But they also have the opposite signal, 'end of bubble' signal)

There was no talk at all about the current state of bitcoin.

The institute (or whatever it is) foresaw the bitcoin crash in 2013 before it happened.

As far as i can see (i just skimmed the newest report) it does not foresee that bitcoin is in a bubble right now.

I just found this to be very interesting.

And struggle how exactly i can use this site.

You can use this site to get useful info and to invest in some asset before the speculation bubble starts.
I think it`s easy to predict bubbles and it`s even easier to predict a bitcoin bubble.
I don`t consider myself as an investor or speculator,but in a market economy information is power and money and we have to find and analyze any valuable info about an asset

This could be used as an information for price analiysis but only like the framework not something to be fully reliable. I think investors and traders use such information but if it always would be so true and secure then they would never lose their money. So other factors and current situation on the market as,well as the experience and "hunch" should be also taken into consideration.

i am always disappointed about these types of articles they just keep using big words and complicate things to hide their prediction and also leave room for saying "we told you so" no matter what happens :D


also i didn't get it, do you mean they predict the bubble before it happens and say for example in 2 months price will go to x and a bubble will shape up?

or

do they predict price is in a bubble and will pop?

because the second one is not really something to be proud of. any novice speculator can do that :)

"Collapsing".

Just these TED peoples (all/most of these TED talks are worthwile to watch) use market data from companies. Goods, trade, production. All of that isn't really compareable!